【摘要】：近年來(lái)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度明顯放緩,尤其在進(jìn)入2015年后更是跌破了7%,創(chuàng)下了近25年來(lái)的新低。我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速持續(xù)下滑的同時(shí),物價(jià)水平也持續(xù)低位徘徊,2015年全年居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)(CPI)同比增長(zhǎng)1.4%,較2014年回落了0.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。此外,截止2016年4月工業(yè)生產(chǎn)者出廠價(jià)格指數(shù)(PPI)已經(jīng)連續(xù)50個(gè)月保持負(fù)增長(zhǎng),未來(lái)轉(zhuǎn)正仍然遙遙無(wú)期。新常態(tài)下,我國(guó)CPI增速的持續(xù)回落和PPI的連續(xù)下跌讓我們不得不警惕通貨緊縮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的存在,如何評(píng)估當(dāng)前我國(guó)的宏觀金融形勢(shì)、厘清當(dāng)前我國(guó)通貨緊縮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的成因,制定系統(tǒng)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策以防范通貨緊縮的發(fā)生,成為當(dāng)前亟需解決的重要問(wèn)題。本文首先對(duì)我國(guó)通貨緊縮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了分析,并在此基礎(chǔ)上采用Ordered Probit模型研究了當(dāng)前我國(guó)分別處于價(jià)格穩(wěn)定、通貨膨脹和通貨緊縮三個(gè)通脹區(qū)間的概率。本文認(rèn)為,我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)雖然未陷入全面通貨緊縮,但是潛在通貨緊縮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已經(jīng)很高,需要政府高度重視。其次,本文運(yùn)用VAR模型對(duì)可能引發(fā)通貨緊縮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的各因素進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析,得出了如下結(jié)論:有效需求不足、產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩是當(dāng)前我國(guó)通貨緊縮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的根本性影響因素;資產(chǎn)價(jià)格、通貨緊縮預(yù)期、貨幣是當(dāng)前我國(guó)通貨緊縮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的主要影響因素;外部傳導(dǎo)性因素是構(gòu)成當(dāng)前我國(guó)通貨緊縮的重要推手。最后,在厘清當(dāng)前我國(guó)通貨緊縮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響因素的基礎(chǔ)上,本文有針對(duì)性的提出了一系列切實(shí)可行的政策建議,以緩解我國(guó)當(dāng)前的通貨緊縮風(fēng)險(xiǎn),確保我國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)在合理的區(qū)間內(nèi)按照“新常態(tài)”穩(wěn)健運(yùn)行。
[Abstract]:China's economic growth has slowed markedly in recent years, especially since 2015, when it has fallen below 7%, the lowest in nearly 25 years. China's economic growth continued to decline, while prices remained low, with the consumer price index (CPI) rising 1.4 percentage points year-on-year in 2015, down 0.6 percentage points from 2014. In addition, the industrial producer price index (PPI) has maintained negative growth for 50 consecutive months as of April 2016, and future gains remain elusive. Under the new normal, the sustained decline of CPI growth rate and the continuous decline of PPI make us have to guard against the existence of deflation risk. How to evaluate the current macro financial situation and clarify the causes of deflation risk in China. It is an important problem to make a systematic macroeconomic policy to prevent deflation. This paper first analyzes the current situation of deflation risk in China, and then uses Ordered Probit model to study the probability of price stability, inflation and deflation in three inflation regions. This paper holds that although China's economy is not in total deflation, the risk of potential deflation is very high, and the government should attach great importance to it. Secondly, this paper makes an empirical analysis of various factors that may lead to deflation risk by using VAR model, and draws the following conclusions: insufficient effective demand, excess capacity is the fundamental influencing factor of deflation risk in China at present; Deflation expectation, currency is the main influence factor of deflation risk in our country at present, and external conduction factor is the important pushing hand that constitutes deflation at present in our country. Finally, on the basis of clarifying the influencing factors of deflation risk in China, this paper puts forward a series of practical and feasible policy recommendations to alleviate the current deflation risk in China. To ensure that China's macroeconomic in a reasonable range in accordance with the "new normal" steady operation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華僑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F822.5
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本文編號(hào)：2142068