【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的不斷加深，國與國之間的經(jīng)濟(jì)、貿(mào)易聯(lián)系不斷加強(qiáng)，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)在因全球化飛速發(fā)展的同時(shí)也潛藏著諸多不穩(wěn)定性因素。開放經(jīng)濟(jì)條件下，資本的自由流動(dòng)、貿(mào)易的不斷擴(kuò)大使得金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的傳播途徑更豐富更加直接。2007年始發(fā)于美國的次貸危機(jī)，經(jīng)一系列的傳播，迅速擴(kuò)散到世界各個(gè)角落，并逐漸發(fā)展成全球性的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)。受此次危機(jī)所累，眾多國家陷入危機(jī)的泥潭中不能自拔，國內(nèi)信貸金融體系崩潰、市場信心缺失、流動(dòng)性不足等問題嚴(yán)重困擾著政策制定者。彼時(shí)，歐美日等發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的國內(nèi)利率相繼降至1%以下，并長期徘徊在零附近，傳統(tǒng)的貨幣政策實(shí)施已無空間，所以，為應(yīng)對愈發(fā)加深的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)，美國、歐盟、日本不得不重啟量化寬松的貨幣政策操作，試圖挽救寒冬中的國民經(jīng)濟(jì)。2007年8月9日歐洲央行宣布其將按照4%的官方利率水平為歐元區(qū)內(nèi)各商業(yè)銀行提供無限的隔夜拆借流動(dòng)性資金援助。自此歐盟持續(xù)進(jìn)行量化寬松的貨幣政策操作，期間隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的逐漸復(fù)蘇，歐盟計(jì)劃退出量化寬松的操作，但歐債危機(jī)的爆發(fā)量化寬松在短暫的退出之后又被重啟。歐盟量化寬松貨幣政策的實(shí)施使得歐元市場上的流動(dòng)性供給快速增大，同時(shí)也向世界釋放溢出效應(yīng)。受此影響，，與其有密切的經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易往來的中國必會(huì)受到影響。這種溢出效應(yīng)的作用方向、影響程度、溢出渠道等問題都值得我們深究。同時(shí)，面臨世界主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體頻繁的貨幣政策操作以及世界經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的沖擊，我國如何有效地制定貨幣政策以應(yīng)對外來溢出效應(yīng)的影響都是亟待解決的問題。 本文立足于貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)的理論基礎(chǔ)，主要分析歐盟量化寬松貨幣政策對我國的溢出效應(yīng)研究，借助計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型重點(diǎn)對歐盟擴(kuò)張性貨幣政策操作對我國實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響方向、影響程度、影響時(shí)間進(jìn)行量化，并力圖給出合理的政策建議以期能夠使我國在中歐貿(mào)易、政策糾紛中獲得支撐，同時(shí)為我國有效應(yīng)對歐盟量化寬松貨幣政策對我國產(chǎn)生的溢出效應(yīng)提供合理的建議。本文在對國內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行梳理的基礎(chǔ)上，總結(jié)了量化寬松貨幣政策的含義、實(shí)施工具、實(shí)施效果等相關(guān)理論，進(jìn)而對貨幣政策溢出效應(yīng)的概念、理論分析、傳導(dǎo)渠道等問題作出歸納，之后介紹了歐盟貨幣銀行體系以及量化寬松貨幣政策的實(shí)施過程。文章的第四部分注重對溢出效應(yīng)做了實(shí)證分析，借助SVAR模型，本文構(gòu)建了包含六個(gè)變量的結(jié)構(gòu)向量自回歸模型，選取了我國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值GDP、對歐凈出口、外匯儲(chǔ)備、原油及成品油進(jìn)口量、利率等五個(gè)變量作為歐盟量化寬松貨幣政策實(shí)施的作用變量，通過對模型中時(shí)間序列的平穩(wěn)性、協(xié)整關(guān)系、因果關(guān)系等檢驗(yàn)，構(gòu)建了穩(wěn)定的SVAR(6)模型。通過對模型的脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解結(jié)果的分析，筆者得出結(jié)論：歐盟量化寬松貨幣政策的實(shí)施對我國確實(shí)產(chǎn)生了顯著的溢出效應(yīng)，且這種溢出效應(yīng)通過多種渠道的傳播最終對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來負(fù)面影響。針對實(shí)證結(jié)果本文認(rèn)為貨幣政策當(dāng)局應(yīng)重視歐盟量化寬松貨幣政策操作對我國的影響，并采取多種措施降低其對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的沖擊。未來我國應(yīng)增強(qiáng)貨幣政策制定的自主性，密切關(guān)注國際資本流向，實(shí)施靈活的外匯管理模式，提升出口產(chǎn)業(yè)的多元化水平，加強(qiáng)貨幣政策的國際協(xié)調(diào)，方為面對國際貨幣政策溢出效應(yīng)的應(yīng)對之策。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of economic globalization, the economic and trade relations between countries and countries have been strengthened continuously. The world economy is also hiding a lot of unstable factors at the same time because of the rapid development of globalization. Under the conditions of open economy, the free flow of capital and the continuous expansion of trade make the spread of financial risk more abundant and more direct.2007 years. The subprime crisis originating in the United States has spread rapidly to every corner of the world and gradually developed into a global economic crisis. As a result of this crisis, many countries are stuck in the mire of crisis, the collapse of the domestic credit and financial system, the lack of market trust, and the lack of liquidity have plagued the policy system seriously. At the same time, the domestic interest rate of the developed economies, such as Europe, America and Japan, has fallen to less than 1%, and has been hovering near zero for a long time. The implementation of traditional monetary policy has no space. So, in response to the deepening economic crisis, the United States, the European Union and Japan have to restart the quantitative easing monetary policy operation to try to save the national economy.2007 in the cold winter. In August 9th, the ECB announced that it would provide unlimited overnight lending liquidity assistance to commercial banks in the euro zone at 4% official interest rates. The EU continued to operate on quantitative easing monetary policy. As the economy gradually recovered, the EU plans to withdraw its quantitative easing operation, but the European debt crisis broke out. Quantitative easing has been restarted after a short withdrawal. The implementation of the EU's quantitative easing monetary policy makes the liquidity supply in the euro market faster and more spillover to the world. By this effect, China will be affected by its close economic and trade contacts. The direction of the effect of this spillover effect is the impact of the spillover effect. At the same time, in the face of the frequent monetary policy operation and the impact of the world economic crisis, how to effectively formulate monetary policy to cope with the effect of foreign spillovers is an urgent problem.
Based on the theoretical basis of monetary policy transmission, this paper mainly analyzes the spillover effect of the EU quantitative easing monetary policy on China, with the help of the econometric model on the direction of the impact of the European expansionary monetary policy on China's real economy, the degree of impact, the impact of time on the quantification, and the rational policy proposals. In order to enable China to support China EU trade and policy disputes, and provide a reasonable suggestion for our country to respond effectively to the spillover effect of the EU quantitative easing monetary policy. On the basis of combing the relevant literature at home and abroad, this paper summarizes the meaning of the quantitative easing monetary policy, implements the tools, and implements the effect. Fruit and other related theories, then the concept of monetary policy spillover effect, theoretical analysis, conduction channel and other issues are summarized, and then the European Monetary bank system and the implementation process of quantitative easing monetary policy are introduced. The fourth part of the article pays attention to the analysis of the spillover effect. With the help of the SVAR model, this paper consists of six parts. The variable structure vector autoregressive model is used to select the GDP of our country's GDP. The five variables, such as net export, foreign exchange reserve, import of crude oil and refined oil, interest rate, are used as the variables of the implementation of the EU quantitative easing monetary policy. By testing the stability, cointegration and causality of the time series in the model, The stable SVAR (6) model. Through the analysis of the impulse response function and the variance decomposition results of the model, the author draws a conclusion that the implementation of the EU quantitative easing monetary policy has a significant spillover effect on China, and this spillover effect has a negative impact on China's economy through the spread of various channels. This article holds that monetary policy authorities should attach importance to the impact of EU quantitative easing monetary policy on China, and take various measures to reduce its impact on China's economy. In the future, China should strengthen the autonomy of monetary policy formulation, pay close attention to the flow of international capital, implement flexible foreign exchange management model, and enhance the diversification of export industry. To strengthen international coordination of monetary policy is the way to deal with the spillover effects of international monetary policy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F822.0;F821.0

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本文編號：2141496