本文選題：土地定價 + 土地所有權　； 參考：《西南財經(jīng)大學》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：“勞動是財富之父,土地是財富之母”。土地是人類社會最原始的生活資料來源；土地是人類社會最原始的生產(chǎn)資料來源；土地為人類社會各行各業(yè)的建立與發(fā)展提供場所與基地；土地為人類一切勞動產(chǎn)品提供物質基礎；土地是國民經(jīng)濟的基礎性產(chǎn)業(yè)-農(nóng)業(yè)不可替代的生產(chǎn)資料。由于中國特殊的歷史傳統(tǒng)和國情,土地是中國社會穩(wěn)定、民族自強自立的基礎。土地制度是人類社會最基礎、最根本性的制度。市場是解決經(jīng)濟問題的最佳工具,利用土地市場可以優(yōu)化資源的配置、提高資源的使用效率。由于中國城市和農(nóng)村不同土地制度的影響,我國土地市場的發(fā)展存在著體制性障礙。研究土地定價問題就變得極端重要。 本研究立足國情,基于資產(chǎn)定價理論和實物期權理論、期權博弈理論,探討利用房價和房租對土地定價的實物期權方法,研究了三種隨機性沖擊：房價、房租、經(jīng)濟沖擊對土地價格的影響；并分析了在當前中國的土地制度下,土地價格形成的博弈過程；探索研究土地經(jīng)營權流轉市場的市場經(jīng)濟規(guī)律。力求在制度層面、工程層面、技術層面為中國土地定價機制的健康發(fā)展提供有益的探索。試圖用現(xiàn)代金融學的理論方法理解中國土地市場的經(jīng)濟行為,為以技術克服制度的缺陷,為中國的現(xiàn)代化過程提供有益的理論探索。為制定合理而靈活的農(nóng)民土地征用價格標準提供合理的經(jīng)濟學依據(jù)。全文包含九個章節(jié),概要如下： 第一章,緒論。對整個論文的核心內(nèi)容進行了概括,內(nèi)容具體包括論文的選題背景和核心問題的提出；研究的目的、研究意義和創(chuàng)新點；討論對象的界定和分析方法的介紹；之后,闡述了結構安排。 第二章,當代中國土地制度的演進與定價方法述評。本章梳理了土地定價問題的理論脈絡、歷史脈絡和方法脈絡。農(nóng)民的土地應是包括份額所有權、使用權和發(fā)展權的有機體系。所有權是產(chǎn)權,土地使用權也是一種產(chǎn)權；回顧當代中國土地制度的演進,獲得了中國當代農(nóng)民土地權利發(fā)展的一個清晰的理論坐標；最后評述了現(xiàn)有土地定價方法。邊際農(nóng)業(yè)價值法、實物期權定價法、時間空間模型定價法等所謂科學土地定價方法都有其適用范圍和局限性。本章為整個研究提供了歷史依據(jù)和經(jīng)濟理論基礎。 第三章,實物期權方法源流考。本章系統(tǒng)而深入地評述了實物期權定價方法體系。實物期權定價方法來源于不確定性的處理和應對。不確定性的類型決定與實物期權定價方法的適用范圍。實物期權定價方法的經(jīng)濟金融學理論基礎是：套利均衡原理,市場完全性和有效性假設,風險中性定價原理。由于實物期權的特性,實物期權發(fā)展為一個豐富的類別。在經(jīng)典實物期權方法的基礎上,復合期權理論、期權博弈理論、模糊實物期權以及不完全信息下的實物期權方法正在得到理論界積極地探索和研究。最后,本章介紹了期權與實物期權的數(shù)學模型及求解方法。本章為整個研究提供了數(shù)理方法論基礎。 第四章,土地的價值可以分為固定收益部分和期權價值部分。本章視期權價值是房產(chǎn)價格的驅動的單因素美式期權,推導得到了土地價格的解析表達式,并進行了比較靜態(tài)分析,在不同的市場參數(shù)結構下,給出了土地價格和期權價格的值及其比率。 第五章,房價、房租與土地價格：一個實物期權分析框架。本章把土地視為受房價和房租兩個隨機因素影響的實物期權,并得到了基于房屋價格和房租價格表示的土地價格。分析表明,土地價值的增長率和房屋價格的增長率近似成比例；土地價格的波動率一定超過房屋價格的波動率；土地價格的波動率一定超過房租價格的波動率;并給出了土地價格的增長率超過房屋價格增長率的一個解釋,討論了房租價格對地價的影響。 第六章,地價可以看成是房屋價格驅動的期權。這種定價較科學的反映了土地的價值,當前的房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控對房價有較大的沖擊,此時地價會有如何的反映,本章利用帶跳擴散過程的美式期權來分析這種沖擊對地價的影響。 第七章,本章結合數(shù)理金融學的最新進展,把幾何布朗運動,帶便利收益的幾何布朗運動、分數(shù)維的幾何布朗運動、分數(shù)維帶跳的幾何布朗運動作為土地收益流的基本假設,并推導了各種形式下土地擇優(yōu)期權的解析表達式,可以為土地的擇優(yōu)期權定價提供理論指導。農(nóng)地所包含的的實物期權價值,在使用權無法流通的地方是成長期權的價值；在使用權實現(xiàn)流通的地方是復合期權的價值。農(nóng)地的發(fā)展權定價可理解為成長期權、轉換期權、價值成長期權和轉換期權結合的復合期權。 第八章,二維隨機條件下土地租賃經(jīng)營的投資博弈模型。本章利用實物期權博弈框架,分析了二維隨機條件下土地租賃經(jīng)營的投資博弈模型,考察了二維隨機條件下投資密度和投資成本對投資者決策的影響。當投資密度和初始投資成本比率不對稱時,都會對各投資閾值產(chǎn)生影響；較大的投資密度和投資成本比率都能提高投資閾值,影響投資者的投資決策；交叉占優(yōu)時兩投資者都有機會成為領先投資者；相對于投資成本比率的影響,租賃經(jīng)營密度對投資者的投資閾值影響更大。 第九章,總結與展望。本章首先結合相關的理論基礎、研究成果及實踐經(jīng)驗對本文研究結論進行系統(tǒng)的解釋和探討,以全面認識農(nóng)民的土地的份額所有權、使用權和發(fā)展權對土地定價的影響機理,在此基礎上,總結本文的理論貢獻和實踐啟示：結合中國國情,針對土地的定價問題、土地市場的建立、農(nóng)民權益保護提出了相關的政策建議。最后,討論了研究局限和后續(xù)研究的方向。 本文的主要研究結論如下： 第一,本文基于全國平均的數(shù)據(jù),證實了土地開發(fā)的價值即房產(chǎn)的價值是地價構成的最主要部分。資本化地租方法不應被用于中國未來的土地轉讓活動。應用期權方法,有效地反應市場的靈活性價值,完善土地定價的科學方法,確保農(nóng)民在土地征用過程中獲得合理的收益。 第二,在中國這個二元化的土地市場上,政府的壟斷和規(guī)制加上土地資源天然的稀缺性加重了社會福利的雙重損失,限制了土地的發(fā)展權價值實現(xiàn)。為了提高土地資源配置效率,應利用市場這一是解決經(jīng)濟問題的最佳工具,逐步建立統(tǒng)一的土地市場,實現(xiàn)土地資源的最優(yōu)配置,提高國民福利。 第三,土地價格是土地市場的核心,但是這個核心依賴于具體的制度環(huán)境。當下的中國產(chǎn)生了浮躁的脫離國情的極端主張,比如主張土地的完全私有化,和土地市場的完全自由化。由于中國特有的歷史傳統(tǒng)和土地資源的獨有特質,堅持當下的土地制度是必要的。 本研究使我們對土地定價有了更系統(tǒng)、更深入的理解。在現(xiàn)有研究的基礎上,本論文的創(chuàng)新點主要體現(xiàn)在： 第一,本研究建立了土地價格、房價、房租構成的全新的實物期權分析框架。本文基于農(nóng)戶對土地的份額所有權、使用權和發(fā)展權,基于無套利方法視土地價格為一個期權,進行了期權定價分析。分析利用了宏觀整體的土地價格指數(shù)和住房價格指數(shù),分析認為農(nóng)戶對土地的發(fā)展權應該得到價值體現(xiàn),全國平均的數(shù)據(jù)證實了土地開發(fā)的價值即房產(chǎn)的價值是地價構成的最主要部分。資本化地租方法不應被用于中國未來的土地轉讓活動。中國的土地價格具有鮮明的期權特征,應用實物期權方法進行土地定價是科學、合理的。 第二,本研究通過結合數(shù)理金融學的最新進展,把幾何布朗運動,帶便利收益的幾何布朗運動、分數(shù)維的幾何布朗運動、分數(shù)維帶跳的幾何布朗運動作為土地收益流的基本假設,并推導了各種形式下土地擇優(yōu)期權的解析表達式,可以為土地的擇優(yōu)期權定價提供理論指導。 第三,本研究利用期權博弈工具,分析農(nóng)業(yè)專業(yè)組織的競爭規(guī)律,建立了二維隨機條件下土地租賃經(jīng)營的投資博弈模型。研究了二維隨機條件下投資密度和投資成本對投資者決策的影響。 本研究努力為實現(xiàn)征地補償合理化、同地同價奠定理論基礎,以扭轉我國征地補償標準偏低的現(xiàn)象；本研究為構建立以產(chǎn)權制度為依托,以實際產(chǎn)權交易關系為依據(jù),建立中國城市和農(nóng)村統(tǒng)一的地價體系,提供理論支持。本文亦為研究土地經(jīng)營權流轉市場的市場經(jīng)濟規(guī)律提供有益的探索。
[Abstract]:" Labor is the father of wealth , land is the mother of wealth " . Land is the most primitive source of life of human society ;
Land is the most primitive source of production data in human society ;
The land is a place and base for the establishment and development of all walks of life in the human society ;
The land provides the material basis for all human labor products ;
Land is the basic industry of national economy - the non - replaceable productive material of agriculture . Because of the special historical tradition and national conditions of China , the land is the foundation of Chinese social stability and national self - reliance . Land system is the most basic and fundamental system of human society . The market is the best tool for solving economic problems . The land market can optimize the allocation of resources and improve the use efficiency of resources . Because of the influence of different land systems in Chinese cities and rural areas , the development of land market in China has institutional obstacles .

Based on the theory of asset pricing theory and real option theory and option game theory , this paper discusses three random shocks : house price , rent and economic impact on land price .
The game process of land price formation in China ' s land system is analyzed .
The paper explores the market economy law of land management right transfer market . It aims at providing beneficial exploration for the healthy development of China ' s land pricing mechanism at the system level , engineering level and technical level .

The first chapter , introduction , summarizes the core contents of the whole thesis , including the background of the thesis and the proposal of the core problem .
Research purposes , research significance and innovation points ;
The definition of the object and the introduction of the analytical method are discussed .
After that , the structure arrangement is explained .

Chapter 2 is a review of the evolution and pricing methods of land pricing in China . This chapter combs the theory of land pricing , historical context and method . The land of the peasants should be the organic system including the ownership , the right to use and the right to development . The ownership is the property right and the right to use the land is also a property right ;
This paper reviews the evolution of contemporary Chinese land system , and obtains a clear theoretical coordinate of the development of land rights in China ' s contemporary peasants ;
At last , the author comments on the existing methods of land pricing , such as marginal agricultural value method , real option pricing method , time space model pricing method and so - called scientific land pricing methods . This chapter provides historical basis and economic theory basis for the whole research .

In chapter 3 , the real option pricing method is introduced in detail . The real option pricing method is derived from the process of uncertainty and the application scope of the real option pricing method . The theory of real options pricing is based on the theory of arbitrage equilibrium , market completeness and validity and risk neutral pricing .

In chapter 4 , the value of the land can be divided into fixed income part and option value part . In this chapter , the analytic expression of the land price is deduced according to the single factor American option which is the driving of the real estate price , and the comparative static analysis is carried out , and the value and the ratio of the land price and the option price are given under different market parameters structure .

Chapter five , house price , rent and land price : a real option analysis framework . This chapter regards land as real option affected by two random factors of house price and rent , and obtains land price based on house price and rent price . The analysis shows that the growth rate of land value and the growth rate of house price are approximately proportional ;
The fluctuation rate of land price must exceed the fluctuation rate of house price ;
The fluctuation rate of land price must exceed the fluctuation rate of the rent price , and gives an explanation of the growth rate of land price above house price growth rate , and discusses the effect of rent price on land price .

Chapter 6 , the land price can be regarded as an option driven by the price of the house . This pricing is more scientific and reflects the value of the land , and the current real estate regulation has a great impact on the house price . At this time , how the land price will be reflected , this chapter uses the American option with the jump diffusion process to analyze the impact on the land price .

Chapter 7 , combining the latest development of mathematical finance , geometric Brownian motion , geometric Brownian motion with convenient return , geometric Brownian motion of fractal dimension , geometric Brownian motion of fractal dimension and fractional dimension are used as the basic assumption of land income flow , and the analytic expression of optimal options in various forms can be provided .
The development right pricing of agricultural land can be understood as the combination of growth options , conversion options , value growth options and conversion options .

Chapter 8 deals with the investment game model of land lease under two - dimensional random condition . This chapter analyzes the investment game model of land lease under two - dimensional random condition by using the real option game framework , and investigates the influence of investment density and investment cost on investor ' s decision - making under two - dimensional random condition .
The larger investment density and investment cost ratio can increase the investment threshold and influence the investor ' s investment decision - making ;
Both investors have the opportunity to become a leading investor when cross - dominated .
With respect to the impact of the investment cost ratio , the lease operating density has a greater impact on the investor ' s investment threshold .

Chapter 9 , summarizes and prospects . Firstly , this chapter explains and discusses the conclusion of this paper based on the relevant theoretical foundation , research results and practical experience .

The main conclusions of this paper are as follows :

First , based on the national average data , this paper confirms the value of land development , that is , the value of the real estate is the most important part of the land price . The capitalization land rent method should not be used in the future land transfer activities in China .

Second , in the two - way land market in China , the government ' s monopoly and regulation , combined with the natural scarcity of land resources , aggravated the dual loss of social welfare and restricted the realization of the value of the land ' s right to development . In order to improve the efficiency of land resource allocation , the market should be used as the best tool to solve the economic problems , and the unified land market should be gradually established , so as to realize the optimal allocation of land resources and improve the national welfare .

Third , the land price is the core of the land market , but the core depends on the specific institutional environment . The present China has generated an impetuosity of the extreme claims of the country , such as the complete privatization of the land and the complete liberalization of the land market . Because of the unique characteristics of China ' s unique historical traditions and land resources , it is necessary to adhere to the present land system .

This study gives us a more systematic and deeper understanding of land pricing . Based on the existing research , the innovation points of this paper are mainly reflected in :

First , this study establishes a new kind of real option analysis framework for land price , house price and rent . Based on the farmer ' s share ownership , right to use and right to development , this paper makes an option pricing analysis based on the land price index and housing price index of the farmer . The analysis uses the macro - integral land price index and the housing price index , and analyses that the value of the land development is the most important part of the land price . The capitalization land rent method should not be used in the future land transfer activity in China . The land price of China has a sharp option characteristic , and the land pricing is scientific and reasonable .

Secondly , this study combines geometric Brownian motion , geometric Brownian motion with convenient return , geometric Brownian motion of fractal dimension , geometric Brownian motion of fractal dimension and geometric Brownian motion of fractional dimension as the basic assumption of land revenue stream .

Thirdly , this research uses the option game tool to analyze the competition law of the agricultural professional organization , establishes the investment game model of the land lease management under the two - dimensional random condition , and studies the influence of the investment density and the investment cost on the investor ' s decision - making under the two - dimensional random condition .

The purpose of this research is to lay a theoretical foundation for the rationalization of land requisition compensation and to lay a theoretical foundation for the co - price with the ground , so as to reverse the low compensation standard in China ;
Based on the property rights system , this research is based on the relationship between real property rights and property rights , establishes the unified land price system of Chinese cities and rural areas , and provides theoretical support . This paper also provides useful exploration for the study of the market economy law of land management right transfer market .
【學位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F301.4;F830

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