本文選題：人民幣匯率 + 國(guó)際收支�。� 參考：《河北經(jīng)貿(mào)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：根據(jù)傳統(tǒng)的國(guó)際收支理論，一國(guó)的匯率波動(dòng)會(huì)影響它的國(guó)際收支狀況，，本幣升值會(huì)使該國(guó)出口產(chǎn)品的相對(duì)價(jià)格上升，出口產(chǎn)品在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力減弱，進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品的相對(duì)價(jià)格下降，從而使出口減少、進(jìn)口增加，經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目出現(xiàn)逆差。2005年7月我國(guó)進(jìn)行了人民幣匯率形成機(jī)制改革，人民幣開始了緩慢的升值過程，在人民幣持續(xù)升值的七年中，中國(guó)國(guó)際收支中經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目、資本與金融項(xiàng)目持續(xù)出現(xiàn)順差局面。匯率的調(diào)整能否改善國(guó)際收支平衡或者在多大程度上能夠改善國(guó)際收支平衡目前并沒有統(tǒng)一的觀點(diǎn)，在此背景下本文通過建立計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型，采用實(shí)證分析方法分析人民幣匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)中國(guó)國(guó)際收支中經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目和資本金融項(xiàng)目的影響，研究人民幣匯率波動(dòng)在調(diào)節(jié)國(guó)際收支中的作用，并根據(jù)研究結(jié)果分析造成這一局面的原因，最后提出了對(duì)策建議。 在本文的寫作過程中，理論分析階段首先對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外的研究現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行梳理，對(duì)匯率影響國(guó)際收支的相關(guān)理論進(jìn)行總結(jié)，并指出了各種理論的優(yōu)點(diǎn)和不足。實(shí)證分析階段，本文分別建立了人民幣匯率對(duì)經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目下貿(mào)易收支影響的方程，包括人民幣匯率對(duì)出口影響的方程、人民幣匯率對(duì)進(jìn)口影響的方程以及人民幣匯率對(duì)貿(mào)易差額影響的方程，人民幣匯率對(duì)外商直接投資影響的方程，在實(shí)證分析時(shí)采用協(xié)整分析方法和向量誤差修正模型分別研究各變量之間的長(zhǎng)期關(guān)系以及短期動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系。 實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示當(dāng)前人民幣匯率波動(dòng)不是影響中國(guó)國(guó)際收支的最主要因素，通過調(diào)整人民幣匯率改善中國(guó)國(guó)際收支狀況難以達(dá)到預(yù)期的效果。調(diào)整人民幣匯率波動(dòng)區(qū)間有可能導(dǎo)致輸入型通貨膨脹，調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)，轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式，是當(dāng)前的重點(diǎn)。
[Abstract]:According to the traditional balance-of-payments theory, a country's exchange rate fluctuations will affect its international balance of payments. The appreciation of the local currency will increase the relative price of the country's export products and weaken the competitiveness of the export products in the international market. The relative prices of imported products have fallen, thus reducing exports, increasing imports, and running a deficit in the current account. In July 2005, China carried out the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, and the RMB began a slow process of appreciation. Over the past seven years, China's current account, capital and financial balance of payments have continued to run surpluses. There is no unified view on whether the adjustment of exchange rate can improve the balance of payments or to what extent it can improve the balance of payments. In this context, this paper establishes an econometric model. This paper analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on the current account and capital financial account in China's balance of payments, and studies the role of RMB exchange rate fluctuation in regulating the balance of payments. According to the research results, the causes of this situation are analyzed, and the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. In the writing process of this paper, the theoretical analysis stage firstly combs the domestic and foreign research status quo, summarizes the relevant theories of the exchange rate affecting the balance of payments, and points out the advantages and disadvantages of various theories. In the stage of empirical analysis, this paper establishes the equation of the impact of RMB exchange rate on current account trade balance, including the impact of RMB exchange rate on export. The equation of the influence of RMB exchange rate on imports, the equation of the influence of RMB exchange rate on trade balance, the equation of the influence of RMB exchange rate on foreign direct investment, In the empirical analysis, cointegration analysis method and vector error correction model are used to study the long-term and short-term dynamic relationships between variables respectively. The empirical results show that the current fluctuation of RMB exchange rate is not the most important factor affecting China's balance of payments, and it is difficult to achieve the expected effect by adjusting the RMB exchange rate to improve China's balance of payments. Adjusting the fluctuation range of RMB exchange rate may lead to imported inflation, adjust industrial structure and change the mode of economic growth.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北經(jīng)貿(mào)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F224

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