本文選題：匯率制度選擇 + C—P模型��； 參考：《江西財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：伴隨著經(jīng)濟全球化、一體化趨勢的加深,外商直接投資(FDI)日益成為新興市場和轉(zhuǎn)型經(jīng)濟體發(fā)展經(jīng)濟、提高生產(chǎn)力的主要推動力之一。近年來,無論是作為直接外資的接收方還是作為對外投資方,新興市場國家和轉(zhuǎn)型經(jīng)濟體在世界投資舞臺上的重要性都在進一步增加。尤其是進入21世紀后,新興市場國家和轉(zhuǎn)型經(jīng)濟體在國際生產(chǎn)與國際消費領(lǐng)域扮演的角色重要性逐年增加,在追求經(jīng)濟效益和尋求新的市場的項目上,全球大型跨國公司和集團對這些國家和地區(qū)的投資也呈現(xiàn)出逐級遞增的趨勢。但是在看到新興市場國家和轉(zhuǎn)型經(jīng)濟體吸收的直接外資流入總量實現(xiàn)突破的同時,也應(yīng)該看到這些國家和地區(qū)內(nèi)部各區(qū)域之間的重大差異,一些最貧困區(qū)域的直接外資流入量甚至在下滑。 為什么一些地區(qū)的直接外資流入量出現(xiàn)持續(xù)的增長,而另一些地區(qū)卻在持續(xù)的下滑?為什么外資會傾向于集中分布在某一國家或地區(qū)?是什么因素導(dǎo)致了外資的集聚現(xiàn)象?它們又是如何從一個國家或地區(qū)轉(zhuǎn)移到另一個國家或地區(qū)的?這一系列的疑問就引出了本文研究的目的：為了解釋這一系列的疑問,本文試圖找到一個因素,這個因素能夠解釋為什么FDI傾向于聚集而不是均勻分布。 眾所周知,發(fā)展中國家的匯率選擇問題一直都存在著困境。如果實行盯住一國貨幣的固定匯率制,就意味著放棄了貨幣政策的獨立性,放棄了用匯率作為調(diào)節(jié)本國經(jīng)濟的手段,當(dāng)本國經(jīng)濟與錨貨幣國經(jīng)濟出現(xiàn)沖突時,內(nèi)部均衡就不得不讓位于外部均衡；如果實行浮動匯率制,鑒于發(fā)展中國家沒有豐裕的外匯儲備和健全的調(diào)節(jié)手段,又往往容易成為國際投機資本狙擊的對象。所以一個合適的匯率制度不僅應(yīng)該能夠為本國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展服務(wù),而且能成為一國政府抵御外部沖擊的有效方式。 由此引出本文的遐想：東道國的匯率制度是不是FDI資本進入時一個重要的影響因素?為了驗證這個疑問,就引出了本文的研究內(nèi)容：本文試圖從新經(jīng)濟地理學(xué)關(guān)于產(chǎn)業(yè)集聚的視角解釋匯率制度對FDI傾向于集中分布的影響。在克魯格曼C—P(Core—Periphery Model)模型的基礎(chǔ)之上,通過修改原模型的假設(shè)條件,引入?yún)R率制度變量,推導(dǎo)了匯率制度下的擴展模型,得到兩個經(jīng)濟體的收入方程、價格指數(shù)、工資方程以及廠商層面的利潤函數(shù)。通過求解上述4R方程并在MATLAB中做了三維空間模擬,得到的結(jié)論主要可以歸納為以下兩個方面。 第一,不能說固定匯率制或者浮動匯率制在吸引FDI方面具有絕對的優(yōu)勢,這不是一個“放之四海皆準”的結(jié)論。在三維的模擬過程中,給定每個國家不同的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展階段、不同的產(chǎn)業(yè)模式以及初始比例,會得到不同的結(jié)論：固定匯率制和浮動匯率制在不同的條件下都成為了一國經(jīng)濟吸引FDI的最優(yōu)選擇。這樣的結(jié)論也在一定程度上解釋了之前的學(xué)者觀點,一部分支持固定匯率制而另一部分支持浮動匯率制,得到這樣的結(jié)論的原因在于樣本選擇的差異性,他們只選擇了一個或幾個類似的國家進行研究,而沒有進行不同類型國家間的國際比較。 第二,給定兩個國家的初始集聚比例,不同的匯率制度會導(dǎo)致廠商在利潤差額的影響下,從利潤低的國家向利潤高的國家轉(zhuǎn)移,形成利潤高的國家的產(chǎn)業(yè)集聚模式。但另一方面這種轉(zhuǎn)移也會在一定程度上打破這兩個國家產(chǎn)業(yè)的初始比例,所以集聚是非穩(wěn)態(tài)的,總處于一個不斷調(diào)整的動態(tài)過程。只有調(diào)整到兩國的產(chǎn)業(yè)利潤差額為零的時候,這個過程才會停止,該狀態(tài)下的產(chǎn)業(yè)分布是穩(wěn)態(tài)的。 最后,本文用GARCH模型對人民幣實際有效匯率及其變動對我國吸引FDI的影響進行了實證研究。鑒于金融時間序列常常出現(xiàn)異方差的情形,我們引入人民幣實際有效匯率的方差作為一個影響FDI流入的獨立變量。實證結(jié)果認為,短期內(nèi)人民幣實際有效匯率的升值以及波動幅度的增加都將對我國吸引FDI流入造成負的沖擊,而在長期條件下,雖然波動所引致的FDI流入仍為負,但人民幣實際有效匯率的升值卻顯著的形成了一個正的沖擊�；诖吮疚慕o出的建議是,在短期內(nèi)盡量避免人民幣實際有效匯率出現(xiàn)大的波動,給市場一個穩(wěn)定的預(yù)期;長期狀態(tài)下可以允許人民幣緩慢的升值。
[Abstract]:With the economic globalization and the deepening of the trend of integration, foreign direct investment (FDI) has increasingly become one of the main driving forces for the development of the emerging and transition economies and the increase of productivity. In recent years, both the recipient of FDI or the foreign investment, the emerging market countries and the transition economies are investing in the world. In particular, the role of emerging market countries and economies in transition in the field of international production and international consumption has increased year by year after twenty-first Century, in the pursuit of economic benefits and in the search for new markets, and the investment in these countries and regions by large multinational corporations and groups in the world However, while seeing the breakthrough in the total amount of FDI inflows absorbed by emerging market countries and transition economies, there should be significant differences in the regions within these countries and regions, and the inflow of FDI in some of the poorest regions is even declining.
Why does the inflow of FDI in some regions continue to grow, while others are continuing to decline? Why will foreign investment tend to be concentrated in a particular country or region? What factors lead to the agglomeration of foreign capital? And how are they transferred from one country or region to another country or region? A series of questions lead to the purpose of this study: to explain this series of questions, this article tries to find a factor that can explain why FDI tends to gather rather than be evenly distributed.
As we all know, the problem of exchange rate selection in developing countries has always been in trouble. If the fixed exchange rate system is pegged to a country's currency, it means giving up the independence of monetary policy and giving up the use of exchange rate as a means to regulate its own economy. When the economy of the country is in conflict with the economy of the country, the internal equilibrium will be forced. If the developing countries do not have abundant foreign exchange reserves and sound adjustment means, the floating exchange rate system will often become the object of international speculative capital sniping. Therefore, a suitable exchange rate system should not only serve the domestic economic development, but also become a national government against the outside world. The effective way of shock.
This leads to the reverie: is the exchange rate system of the host country an important factor in the entry of FDI capital? In order to verify this question, it leads to the research content of this article: This article tries to explain the influence of the exchange rate system on the concentration distribution of FDI from the perspective of Industrial Agglomeration in the new economic geography. In Krueger On the basis of the Mann C - P (Core - Periphery Model) model, by modifying the hypothesis of the original model and introducing the exchange rate system variable, the extended model under the exchange rate system is derived, and the income equation, the price index, the wage equation and the profit function of the manufacturer are obtained by the two economies. By solving the above 4R equation and doing it in MATLAB The conclusion of three-dimensional space simulation can be summed up in the following two aspects.
First, it can't be said that fixed exchange rate system or floating exchange rate system has an absolute advantage in attracting FDI. This is not a conclusion of "all the four seas are accurate". In the three-dimensional simulation process, given the different stages of economic development in each country, different industrial patterns and initial proportions, different conclusions will be obtained: fixed exchange rate system. And floating exchange rate system has become the best choice for one country's economy to attract FDI under different conditions. This conclusion also explains the previous scholars' views to a certain extent. Some support the fixed exchange rate system while the other part supports the floating exchange rate system. The original reason for this conclusion is the difference of sample selection, they only choose to choose. One or several similar countries were studied without international comparison among different countries.
Second, given the initial concentration ratio of the two countries, the different exchange rate regimes will lead to the shift from low profit countries to countries with high profits under the influence of profit margin, and form the industrial agglomeration model of high profit countries. On the other hand, this kind of transfer will also break the initial proportion of the two countries in a certain degree. Therefore, the agglomeration is an unsteady state, and it is always in a dynamic process of constant adjustment. Only when the industrial profit margin of the two countries is adjusted to zero, the process will stop, and the industrial distribution under this state is steady.
Finally, this paper uses the GARCH model to make an empirical study on the effect of real effective exchange rate and its change on the attraction of FDI in China. In view of the often Heteroscedasticity in the financial time series, we introduce the variance of the real effective exchange rate of RMB as an independent variable affecting the inflow of FDI. The appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of the currency and the increase of the fluctuation range will have a negative impact on our country's attraction to FDI inflow. In the long term, although the FDI inflow caused by the fluctuation is still negative, the appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of the RMB has formed a positive impact. To avoid a large fluctuation in the real effective exchange rate of RMB, a stable expectation is given to the market, and a slow appreciation of the RMB can be allowed in the long term.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F831

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