本文選題：貨幣錯(cuò)配 + 匯率制度��； 參考：《吉林財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)飛速發(fā)展，但由于人民幣在世界上不能夠自由兌換、流通，所以我國(guó)在對(duì)外進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)交往時(shí)，不可避免地面臨貨幣錯(cuò)配。由于貨幣錯(cuò)配的不斷積累，影響了人民幣匯率制度改革進(jìn)程。 通過(guò)對(duì)我國(guó)貨幣錯(cuò)配總體狀況的分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)我國(guó)貨幣錯(cuò)配具有以下特征：一是從性質(zhì)上看，我國(guó)屬于典型的債權(quán)型貨幣錯(cuò)配；二是從程度上看，我國(guó)貨幣錯(cuò)配程度逐步加深，短期內(nèi)得到緩解的可能性較��；三是從風(fēng)險(xiǎn)上看，我國(guó)貨幣錯(cuò)配的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較大且主要集中于政府部門(mén)。究其原因，不可自由兌換的貨幣、出口導(dǎo)向型的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)模式、缺乏彈性的匯率制度以及不健全的金融市場(chǎng)等因素是我國(guó)貨幣錯(cuò)配的主要成因。而對(duì)我國(guó)1999-2011年貨幣錯(cuò)配程度的測(cè)算結(jié)果顯示，近年來(lái)我國(guó)貨幣錯(cuò)配程度總體呈上升趨勢(shì)。 從匯率制度影響貨幣錯(cuò)配的角度看，理論分析表明固定匯率制度與浮動(dòng)匯率制度對(duì)貨幣錯(cuò)配具有不同的影響，通常情況下匯率制度由固定轉(zhuǎn)為浮動(dòng)，有助于貨幣錯(cuò)配程度的降低，即匯率制度改革有助于緩解貨幣錯(cuò)配。然而，理論分析的結(jié)論與本文對(duì)我國(guó)貨幣錯(cuò)配現(xiàn)實(shí)狀況的測(cè)算結(jié)果存在巨大差異：在2005年人民幣匯率制度改革后，我國(guó)的貨幣錯(cuò)配程度不降反升。人民幣匯率制度改革之所以對(duì)緩解貨幣錯(cuò)配沒(méi)有起到應(yīng)有的作用，可能主要受以下幾個(gè)因素的影響：首先，，為了防止人民幣的過(guò)快升值，央行必須買入外幣資產(chǎn)；其次，由于配套改革的不到位，缺乏相應(yīng)的金融工具來(lái)抵御貨幣錯(cuò)配風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；最后，由于我國(guó)為拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)所制定的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策，使得外資流入較為容易。 從貨幣錯(cuò)配影響匯率制度的角度看，貨幣錯(cuò)配的繼續(xù)積累會(huì)對(duì)匯率制度的制定以及實(shí)施造成影響，并可能對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)造成沖擊。就中國(guó)的具體情況而言，貨幣錯(cuò)配對(duì)人民幣匯率制度深化改革具有極大的負(fù)面影響，貨幣錯(cuò)配不僅加劇了人民幣匯率的升值預(yù)期，同時(shí)也加大了人民幣匯率制度的改革成本。 總之，人民幣匯率制度改革沒(méi)有如理論預(yù)期的那樣緩解我國(guó)貨幣錯(cuò)配問(wèn)題，反而是中國(guó)大規(guī)模貨幣錯(cuò)配的存在嚴(yán)重阻礙了匯率制度改革的進(jìn)度。因此，深化人民幣匯率制度改革需要首先解決貨幣錯(cuò)配問(wèn)題，而人民幣國(guó)際化、轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)模式以及大力發(fā)展金融市場(chǎng)等措施是緩解我國(guó)貨幣錯(cuò)配問(wèn)題的有效手段。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's economy has developed rapidly, but the RMB cannot be freely convertible and circulated in the world, so China inevitably faces currency mismatch when it carries out economic exchanges with foreign countries. The accumulation of currency mismatch has affected the reform process of RMB exchange rate regime. Through the analysis of the overall situation of currency mismatch in China, it is found that the currency mismatch of our country has the following characteristics: first, from the nature of view, China is a typical creditor's money mismatch; second, in terms of degree, the degree of currency mismatch in our country is gradually deepening, and the possibility of being alleviated in the short term is relatively small; third, from the perspective of risk, The risk of currency mismatch in China is high and mainly concentrated in government departments. The main reasons are the non-convertible currency, the export-oriented economic growth model, the lack of flexible exchange rate system and the imperfect financial market. The results show that the degree of currency mismatch in China has been on the rise in recent years. From the point of view of the influence of exchange rate regime on currency mismatch, the results show that the degree of currency mismatch in China is on the whole rising in recent years. The theoretical analysis shows that the fixed exchange rate system and the floating exchange rate system have different effects on the currency mismatch. Usually, the exchange rate regime changes from fixed to floating, which is helpful to reduce the mismatch degree of currency. That is, exchange rate reform helps ease currency mismatches. However, the conclusion of the theoretical analysis is quite different from that of this paper: after the RMB exchange rate system reform in 2005, the degree of currency mismatch in our country is rising instead of decreasing. The reason why the reform of the RMB exchange rate system has not played its due role in alleviating currency mismatches may be mainly affected by the following factors: first, in order to prevent the renminbi from appreciating too quickly, the central bank must buy foreign currency assets; and secondly, Due to the lack of supporting reforms, there is a lack of corresponding financial instruments to resist the risk of currency mismatch. Finally, because of the macroeconomic policies formulated by our country to stimulate the economy, From the point of view of currency mismatch affecting the exchange rate regime, the continued accumulation of currency mismatch will have an impact on the formulation and implementation of the exchange rate regime, and may impact on the macro economy. As far as China's specific situation is concerned, currency mismatches have a great negative impact on deepening the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime. Currency mismatches not only aggravate the expectation of appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, At the same time, it has also increased the cost of the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime. In short, the reform of the RMB exchange rate system has not alleviated the problem of currency mismatch in China as theoretically expected. On the contrary, China's massive currency mismatch has seriously hindered the progress of exchange rate system reform. Therefore, to deepen the reform of RMB exchange rate system, we should first solve the problem of currency mismatch, and the internationalization of RMB, the transformation of economic growth model and the development of financial market are effective measures to alleviate the problem of currency mismatch in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6

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本文編號(hào)：1994871