本文選題：匯率傳遞 + 通貨膨脹�。� 參考：《西南大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：2005年人民幣匯率制度改革以后,我國不再單一盯住美元,而是實行參考籃子貨幣進行調(diào)節(jié)、有管理的浮動匯率制度。我國對外貿(mào)易伙伴日益增多,對外貿(mào)易規(guī)模日益擴大,我國的國際地位得到有效提升。在當(dāng)前開放經(jīng)濟環(huán)境的背景下,匯率作為核心工具變量,成為影響一國宏觀經(jīng)濟的重要因素,各國政府把匯率制度作為穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟正常運行與發(fā)展的重要手段。由于世界經(jīng)濟發(fā)展不平衡、我國長期對外貿(mào)易順差以及因此形成的巨額外匯儲備,許多學(xué)者對人民幣匯率的研究形成了新一輪的熱潮。我國是一個大的發(fā)展中國家,影響匯率傳遞效應(yīng)的因素有其特殊性,檢驗匯率傳遞理論在中國是否適用；研究匯率變動對國內(nèi)價格的傳遞程度,可以了解匯率對解決我國外部經(jīng)濟失衡問題的作用,能夠為制定合理的貨幣政策,有效緩解國內(nèi)通貨膨脹壓力提供一些有益的參考。 本文第1章介紹研究背景及意義,國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀、研究方法與目的等。第2章回顧了匯率完全傳遞理論、匯率不完全傳遞理論以及通貨膨脹理論。第3章對人民幣匯率變動與我國通貨膨脹狀況進行總體分析,回顧了人民幣匯率制度的歷史演進,以及我國人民幣匯率的變動情況,同時介紹了我國通貨膨脹的歷史與現(xiàn)狀。第4章對匯率變動對通貨膨脹的影響進行理論分析,主要包括匯率傳遞渠道,匯率傳遞的宏觀影響以及不同匯率制度下的匯率傳遞。第5章運用VAR模型對匯改前后人民幣匯率傳遞進行實證分析。第6章在前幾章分析的基礎(chǔ)上得出研究結(jié)論與政策建議。 本文的主要結(jié)論：匯率變動對PPI以及CPI都是不完全傳遞的；PPI受匯率波動的影響程度都要比CPI受匯率沖擊的影響程度要大；匯率制度越富有彈性,匯率變動對PPI以及CPI的傳遞程度越強；國內(nèi)通貨膨脹受匯率沖擊的影響仍然有限,受石油等因素的沖擊更強；匯率波動對國內(nèi)通貨膨脹的傳遞途徑很多并且復(fù)雜,短期內(nèi)可能出現(xiàn)與傳統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟理論相背離的現(xiàn)象；M2代表的貨幣沖擊對我國通貨膨脹的影響程度逐漸變大,貨幣政策對我國通貨膨脹的傳遞渠道更加通暢。
[Abstract]:After the reform of RMB exchange rate system in 2005, China no longer pegged to the US dollar, but carried out a managed floating exchange rate system with reference to basket currencies. Our country's foreign trade partner is increasing day by day, the scale of foreign trade is expanding day by day, our country's international status has been effectively promoted. Under the background of open economic environment, the exchange rate, as a core tool variable, has become an important factor affecting a country's macroeconomic. The exchange rate system is regarded as an important means to stabilize the normal operation and development of the economy. Due to the unbalanced development of the world economy, China's long-term foreign trade surplus and the huge foreign exchange reserves, many scholars have formed a new upsurge in the study of RMB exchange rate. Our country is a big developing country, the factors that influence exchange rate transfer effect have its particularity, test whether exchange rate transfer theory is applicable in China, study the transmission degree of exchange rate change to domestic price, We can understand the role of exchange rate in solving the problem of external economic imbalance in China, and can provide some useful reference for formulating reasonable monetary policy and effectively alleviating the pressure of domestic inflation. Chapter 1 introduces the research background and significance, domestic and foreign research status, research methods and purposes. Chapter 2 reviews exchange rate complete transfer theory, exchange rate incomplete transfer theory and inflation theory. Chapter 3 gives a general analysis of the change of RMB exchange rate and inflation in China, reviews the historical evolution of RMB exchange rate system and the change of RMB exchange rate in China, and introduces the history and present situation of inflation in China. Chapter 4 makes a theoretical analysis of the effect of exchange rate change on inflation, including exchange rate transmission channels, macro effects of exchange rate transmission and exchange rate transmission under different exchange rate regimes. Chapter 5 uses VAR model to analyze the RMB exchange rate transfer before and after the exchange rate reform. Chapter 6 draws the conclusions and policy recommendations on the basis of the previous chapters. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: the exchange rate change is not completely transmitted to the PPI and the CPI is less affected by the exchange rate fluctuation than the CPI is affected by the exchange rate shock, and the more flexible the exchange rate regime is, the more flexible the exchange rate regime is. The stronger the transmission of exchange rate to PPI and CPI, the more limited the impact of domestic inflation is by exchange rate shock, and more strongly affected by oil and other factors. The exchange rate fluctuation has many and complex ways to transmit domestic inflation. In the short term there may be a phenomenon that deviates from the traditional economic theory. The impact of the monetary shock represented by M2 on China's inflation is gradually becoming greater and the transmission channels of monetary policy to China's inflation are more unobstructed.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F822.5;F832.6

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