本文選題：人民幣 + 匯率�。� 參考：《東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：自1994年我國(guó)的匯率改革以來,人民幣匯率一直處于單邊升值的趨勢(shì),且升值幅度相當(dāng)之大。尤其自2005年以后,人民幣匯率上升幅度不斷攀升,而在之后的2008—2012年問,人民幣匯率處于飛速上升的狀態(tài),若把1994年作為基期,則人民幣的上升幅度從未低于過20%,并且在2012年累計(jì)升值更是高達(dá)了37%。 在人民幣匯率畸形上升的同時(shí),一些相關(guān)的經(jīng)濟(jì)變量也呈現(xiàn)出奇怪的態(tài)勢(shì)。其中包括貿(mào)易收支、資本的凈流入額、外匯儲(chǔ)備量、中國(guó)的GDP增長(zhǎng)率、中美兩國(guó)的收益率差額以及通貨膨脹率差額等。以這些因素為線索,筆者搜索到與之相關(guān)的匯率理論并以之為基礎(chǔ),通過對(duì)其現(xiàn)狀的研究,對(duì)相應(yīng)指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)的直觀描述,構(gòu)造出匯率的多元回歸模型,并對(duì)搜集的數(shù)據(jù)做出相關(guān)的實(shí)證分析。 通過實(shí)證分析和檢驗(yàn)得到相關(guān)結(jié)論——人民幣匯率的主要影響因素為國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)(LNGDP)和外匯儲(chǔ)備(LNRE)的數(shù)量；而出口(LNNX)、資本凈流入額(NCF)、以及相對(duì)收益率差額(IR)對(duì)人民幣匯率的影響并不顯著。此外,結(jié)論還顯示國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)、相對(duì)的收益率差額、貿(mào)易凈出口額和資本的凈流入額與人民幣匯率呈現(xiàn)出正相關(guān)關(guān)系,而此前理論所認(rèn)為與人民幣匯率呈正相關(guān)的外匯儲(chǔ)備結(jié)果卻呈現(xiàn)出負(fù)相關(guān)的關(guān)系。 本文以該結(jié)論為基礎(chǔ),對(duì)我國(guó)的匯率改革提出了相應(yīng)的措施建議,其措施的建議主要從人民幣匯率制度、外匯儲(chǔ)備制度、貿(mào)易的結(jié)構(gòu)和戰(zhàn)略、國(guó)際資本(尤其是熱錢)的監(jiān)管、利率的改革、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整以及人民幣匯率預(yù)期的管理幾大方面,形成一個(gè)組合拳,共同治理人民幣匯率問題。希望藉此防止匯率在短期內(nèi)出現(xiàn)大幅度的波動(dòng),以致產(chǎn)生連鎖性反應(yīng)；而從長(zhǎng)期來看,希望形成良好的人民幣匯率機(jī)制,促進(jìn)我國(guó)貿(mào)易和國(guó)際引資良性循環(huán),使我國(guó)的國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)和對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)保持長(zhǎng)期的持續(xù)均衡。 文章結(jié)構(gòu)采用層層推進(jìn)的方法,逐步分析。全文合計(jì)五個(gè)部分： 第一部分為緒論,對(duì)匯率研究的背景、研究意義、研究方法以及研究的結(jié)構(gòu)作出大體的闡述,指出了本文研究的創(chuàng)新和不足。 第二部分對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外的匯率理論和匯率研究狀況作出說明,為后面的寫作過程中理論的引用做好鋪墊。 第三部分對(duì)匯率以及匯率相關(guān)因素的現(xiàn)狀介紹和描述,并對(duì)相關(guān)因素的變動(dòng)所帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)后果作出分析。 第四部分為實(shí)證分析,通過對(duì)1994-2012年間的數(shù)據(jù)做出修正,構(gòu)建出匯率的多元回歸模型,對(duì)現(xiàn)實(shí)數(shù)據(jù)作出了實(shí)證分析,并得到出結(jié)論。 第五部分以結(jié)論為基礎(chǔ),對(duì)人民幣匯率的改革提出建議措施。除了在匯率制度方面,涉及匯率影響因素的相關(guān)措施建議亦有提及。 在本文的研究過程中,筆者主要采用了文獻(xiàn)搜索法、描述分析法、實(shí)證分析法、理論與實(shí)踐相結(jié)合的方法。筆者在諸多學(xué)者前輩的基礎(chǔ)上,通過參照,將其理論的精華之處提煉,進(jìn)一步引入了匯率的解釋因素因素,形成了自身的匯率多元回歸函數(shù),以此來對(duì)人民幣匯率進(jìn)行多元化的分析,從而探討各個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)變量對(duì)人民幣匯率的影響機(jī)制和影響程度。盡管本文存在著一些缺陷和不足,但依舊希望能給后來者提供些微的參考,使其對(duì)本文的不足之處加以完善,使匯率理論的研究更加嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)。
[Abstract]:Since China ' s exchange rate reform in 1994 , the RMB exchange rate has been on the one - side appreciation trend , and the value of appreciation is quite large . Especially since 2005 , the rate of RMB exchange rate has risen steadily , and in 2008 - 2012 , the RMB exchange rate is in a rapidly rising state . If 1994 is the base period , the rate of rise of RMB has never been lower than 20 % , and the accumulated appreciation in 2012 is up to 37 % .

At the same time , some economic variables related to the rise of RMB exchange rate are strange . These factors include the balance of trade , the net inflow of capital , the amount of foreign exchange reserve , the GDP growth rate of China , the yield difference between China and the United States , and the difference of inflation rate . Based on these factors , the author searches for the relevant exchange rate theory and makes an intuitive description of the corresponding index data , constructs the multiple regression model of exchange rate , and makes an empirical analysis of the collected data .

The main influencing factors of RMB exchange rate are the growth of national economy ( LNGDP ) and the quantity of foreign exchange reserve ( LNRE ) .
In addition , the conclusion shows that the growth of the national economy , the relative return difference , the net outflow of trade and the net inflow of capital are positively correlated with the RMB exchange rate , and the former theory believes that the foreign exchange reserve has a negative correlation with the RMB exchange rate .

Based on this conclusion , this paper puts forward corresponding measures to the reform of exchange rate in China . The measures are mainly based on RMB exchange rate system , foreign exchange reserve system , structure and strategy of trade , international capital ( especially hot money ) , interest rate reform , industrial structure adjustment and the expected management of RMB exchange rate .
In the long run , it is hoped that good RMB exchange rate mechanism will be formed , and China ' s domestic economy and foreign economy will maintain long - term sustainable balance .

The article analyzes the structure of the article by layer - by - layer advancing method . The total of the whole is five parts :

The first part is the introduction , the background of exchange rate research , the research significance , the research method and the structure of the research , and points out the innovation and deficiency of this paper .

The second part makes a statement about the exchange rate theory and exchange rate research situation both at home and abroad , and makes the reference for the later writing process .

The third part introduces and describes the current situation of exchange rate and exchange rate related factors , and analyzes the economic consequences of the change of the relevant factors .

The fourth part is divided into the empirical analysis , through the correction of the data between 1994 and 2012 , the multiple regression model of the exchange rate is constructed , the real data is empirically analyzed , and the conclusion is obtained .

The fifth part , based on the conclusion , puts forward some suggestions on the reform of RMB exchange rate . In addition to the exchange rate system , the related measures related to the influencing factors of exchange rate are also mentioned .

In the process of the study , the author mainly adopts the methods of literature search , descriptive analysis , empirical analysis , theory and practice .
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6

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本文編號(hào)：1898604