本文選題：預(yù)防性儲蓄動機 + 發(fā)展型消費�。� 參考：《浙江工商大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：在進入21世紀的十余年里,以投資為主要動力的中國經(jīng)濟高速增長,就這一點而言,中國的增長奇跡令世界矚目。然而,伴隨著經(jīng)濟高增長的卻是居民消費結(jié)構(gòu)升級趨緩和儲蓄率的大幅攀升。在2002-2011這十年里,我國城鎮(zhèn)居民消費結(jié)構(gòu)的年均變動度只有0.39,遠低于1992-2001年的1.18,儲蓄率則從37.9%上升到52.6%,這種現(xiàn)象被稱作“中國儲蓄之謎”。一方面,投資與消費的結(jié)構(gòu)性失衡為未來的經(jīng)濟持續(xù)增長埋下了隱患；另一方面,居民消費結(jié)構(gòu)升級趨緩亦不利于民生事業(yè)的改善。 居民消費支出可以大致分為兩類,一是以維持基本生活所必需的消費支出,以“衣、食、住”支出為主體的生存型消費。另一類是滿足精神需要,以及提高人力資本的知識技能存量,以確保消費者未來發(fā)展需要的發(fā)展型消費。發(fā)展型消費占總消費的比重增加意味著消費結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化升級和居民生活水平的提高,該項指標(biāo)是國家制定民生事業(yè)建設(shè)相關(guān)政策的重要依據(jù),特別是在當(dāng)今全球金融危機陰霾未散,國內(nèi)需求不足的背景下,深入研究其變化特點,把握其內(nèi)在規(guī)律,對于推進產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級和擴大內(nèi)需政策的制定,都是大有裨益的。 處于經(jīng)濟體制改革進程中的中國,各項制度變革都使國內(nèi)居民面臨著種種不確定性,在這個特殊的大背景下,無論是從理論發(fā)展還是經(jīng)濟實踐,都有必要深入研究居民發(fā)展型消費逡巡不前的原因。因此,研究針對發(fā)展型消費的預(yù)防性儲蓄,能為探索上述原因提供一個解讀視角。本文借鑒日臻成熟的西方預(yù)防性儲蓄理論,在對該領(lǐng)域最近的研究成果進行梳理的基礎(chǔ)上,將不確定性的來源由傳統(tǒng)模型中等的一維拓展至多維,構(gòu)建了一個新的理論模型,并以此為分析框架,對我國城鎮(zhèn)居民針對發(fā)展性消費的預(yù)防性儲蓄行為進行了定量研究,同時結(jié)合擠占效應(yīng),試圖對居民消費結(jié)構(gòu)升級趨緩的原因進行探索。 本文的研究內(nèi)容由以下五部分構(gòu)成：第一部分為前言,簡要地介紹了本文的選題背景、研究意義,對研究對象和主要內(nèi)容進行概述,勾勒出文章的總體框架。第二部分為文獻綜述,沿兩條線索展開。第一條線索結(jié)合不同支出類型需求剛性,介紹有關(guān)生存型消費和發(fā)展型消費擠占效應(yīng)的研究成果。第二條線索先對預(yù)防性儲蓄理論的涵義、假設(shè)進行闡述,再系統(tǒng)性地介紹了預(yù)儲蓄理論中的主流模型,并比較它們的優(yōu)點和局限性,以及國內(nèi)外學(xué)者針對預(yù)防性儲蓄的測算結(jié)果,最后介紹該研究領(lǐng)域出現(xiàn)的新進展,本部分力圖為后文的深入做好理論鋪墊。第三部分為理論模型的構(gòu)建。將發(fā)展型消費和生存型消費這兩個變量同時納入二元CRRA效用函數(shù),從而重新推導(dǎo)歐拉方程,獲得基于雙不確定性來源的預(yù)防性儲蓄動機的理論模型,并重新計算相對謹慎系數(shù)；同時基于理論模型,對擠占效應(yīng)的形成機制進行說明。第四部分為實證分析。先對發(fā)展型消費的支出額進行描述性統(tǒng)計分析,并進行橫向與縱向的比較,從而揭示城鎮(zhèn)居民消費結(jié)構(gòu)的特征。再通過測算不同支出類型消費額的基尼系數(shù),對地區(qū)間發(fā)展型消費的非均衡性進行分析。在理論模型的基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建計量模型,通過選取相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),估計城鎮(zhèn)居民針對發(fā)展型消費的預(yù)防性儲蓄強度,并驗證在實際中是否存在發(fā)展型消費對生存型消費的擠占效應(yīng)。最后對預(yù)防性儲蓄動機強度呈現(xiàn)出的地區(qū)差異進行比較分析。最后一部分為本文的結(jié)論,通過對分析研究結(jié)果進行歸納總結(jié),為擴大內(nèi)需和推進居民消費結(jié)構(gòu)升級提出合理的政策建議。 本文的研究意義在于：從實踐應(yīng)用角度來講,研究了城鎮(zhèn)居民針對發(fā)展型消費進行的預(yù)防性儲蓄,估計了它的強度,并對影響因素進行了分析,為制定有效推進居民消費結(jié)構(gòu)升級,改善人民生活水平的經(jīng)濟政策提供現(xiàn)實依據(jù)。從理論意義角度來講,本文基于雙不確定性來源框架,重新推導(dǎo)預(yù)防性儲蓄動機模型,并獲得了雙不確定性來源情形下相對謹慎系數(shù)的計算方法,同時還能反映出不同消費支出之間的擠占效應(yīng)。本文可以看作是對傳統(tǒng)的Dynan模型的拓展深化,可以豐富居民預(yù)防性儲蓄的研究方法。 本文的基本結(jié)論是：地區(qū)間發(fā)展型消費支出的差距逐年擴大；城鎮(zhèn)居民針對發(fā)展型消費存在著顯著的預(yù)防性儲蓄動機,相對謹慎系數(shù)為2.55,兩類消費的交互效應(yīng)對預(yù)防性儲蓄具有正向的沖擊作用；生存型消費對發(fā)展型消費產(chǎn)生了顯著的擠占效應(yīng)；與中西部地區(qū)相比,東部地區(qū)的城鎮(zhèn)居民針對發(fā)展型消費的預(yù)防性儲蓄動機較弱,但他們所面臨的生存型消費帶來的擠占效應(yīng)更強。最后,文章從提高城鎮(zhèn)居民可支配收入、推進產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、完善社會保障制度和發(fā)展消費信貸市場四個方面提出了政策建議。
[Abstract]:In the more than ten years of entering twenty-first Century, China's economy is growing rapidly with investment as the main driving force. As far as this is concerned, the miracle of China's growth is attracting the attention of the world. However, with the high growth of economy, the consumption structure of residents has been escalating and the savings rate has risen sharply. In the ten years of 2002-2011, the consumption structure of urban residents in China The average annual change is only 0.39, far below the 1.18 of 1992-2001 years and the savings rate rises from 37.9% to 52.6%. This phenomenon is called "the mystery of China's savings". On the one hand, the structural imbalance between investment and consumption has laid a hidden danger for the future economic growth; on the other hand, the upgrading of the consumption structure of the people is not conducive to the livelihood of the people's livelihood. Improve.
The consumption expenditure of residents can be roughly divided into two categories: one is to maintain the consumption expenditure necessary for the basic life and the living consumption of "clothing, food and living" expenditure. The other is to meet the spiritual needs and improve the stock of knowledge and skills of human capital to ensure the development type consumption that the consumer needs in the future. The increase in the proportion of total consumption means the optimization and upgrading of the consumption structure and the improvement of the living standard of the residents. This index is an important basis for the state to formulate relevant policies for the construction of the livelihood of the people, especially in the background of the haze of the global financial crisis and the shortage of domestic demand. It is of great benefit to promote the upgrading of industrial structure and the formulation of policies to expand domestic demand.
In China, in the process of economic reform, various institutional changes have made domestic residents face various uncertainties. Under this special background, it is necessary to study the reasons for the development of residents' development consumption, whether it is from the theoretical development or the economic practice. Therefore, the research on the preventive storage of the development type consumption is necessary. On the basis of combing the recent research achievements in this field, this paper builds a new theoretical model and builds a new theoretical model. This paper makes a quantitative study on the Preventive Savings Behavior of urban residents in view of development consumption, and tries to explore the reasons for the slow upgrading of the residents' consumption structure in combination with the squeeze effect.
The research content of this article is composed of the following five parts: the first part is the preface, which briefly introduces the background of this topic, the significance of the research, the overview of the research object and the main content, outlines the overall framework of the article. The second part is a literature review, which opens along two clues. The first clue combines the demand of different expenditure types to the rigid, This paper introduces the research achievements on the effect of survival type consumption and development type consumption. The second clues first expatiate on the meaning of the preventive savings theory, the hypothesis, and systematically introduce the mainstream model in the pre savings theory, and compare their advantages and limitations, as well as the results of the domestic and foreign scholars on the calculation of preventive savings. The third part is the construction of the theoretical model. The two variables of the development type consumption and the survival type consumption are incorporated into the two yuan CRRA utility function, thus the Euler equation is derived and the prevention based on the dual uncertainty source is obtained. The theoretical model of savings motivation, and the re calculation of the relative prudence coefficient; meanwhile, based on the theoretical model, the formation mechanism of the crowding effect is explained. The fourth part is an empirical analysis. First, the descriptive statistical analysis of the expenditure of development type consumption is carried out, and the horizontal and vertical comparison is carried out to reveal the special consumption structure of urban residents. By calculating the Gini coefficient of different expenditure types, this paper analyzes the non equilibrium of the development type consumption between regions. Based on the theoretical model, we construct the measurement model and select the relevant data to estimate the preventive saving strength of the urban residents for the development type consumption, and verify whether there is a developmental elimination in the actual situation. The final part is the conclusion of this paper. The final part is the conclusion of this paper. Through the analysis of the results of the analysis, we put forward reasonable policy suggestions for expanding domestic demand and promoting the upgrading of residents' consumption structure.
The significance of this study is: from the perspective of practical application, this paper studies the preventive savings made by urban residents for the development type consumption, estimates its intensity, and analyses the influencing factors, providing a realistic basis for formulating the economic policy of promoting the upgrading of residents' consumption structure and improving the living standard of the people. From the point of view, this paper, based on the dual uncertainty source framework, derives the Preventive Savings motivation model, and obtains the calculation method of the relative prudence coefficient under the dual uncertainty source, and can also reflect the squeezing effect between different consumption expenditures. This paper can be regarded as the expansion of the traditional Dynan model. Research methods to enrich residents' Preventive Savings.
The basic conclusion of this paper is that the gap between the development type consumption expenditure is widening year by year; the urban residents have significant preventive savings motives for the development type consumption, the relative prudence coefficient is 2.55, the interaction effect of the two types of consumption has a positive impact on the Preventive Savings, and the survival type consumption has produced the development consumption. Significant squeezing effect; compared with the central and western regions, the urban residents in the eastern region are weaker in the Preventive Savings motives for the development type consumption, but their existence type consumption is more effective. Finally, the article is to improve the urban residents' disposable income, push into the industrial structure adjustment, improve the social security system and develop the social security system. The policy recommendations are put forward in four aspects of the consumer credit market.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.22;F224

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