本文選題：貨幣化 + 通貨膨脹�。� 參考：《吉林大學(xué)》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：貨幣化的概念經(jīng)常被提及，但是學(xué)術(shù)界至今并未給出明確定義。自貨幣體系脫離金本位后，金融資產(chǎn)價格迅速上漲，已接近上百倍，但這是名義的、貨幣的，并不代表真實資本的情況。全球經(jīng)濟在經(jīng)歷著依靠不斷增加貨幣來保證增長，這里便是一個貨幣化的過程。 從中國的角度看，貨幣化指標(biāo)M0GDP、 M2GDP、 M2GDP一直在快速上漲，尤其是，在改革開放初期僅為0.3，2010年已超過1.8，至今未出現(xiàn)回落的趨勢。如此長時期的貨幣總量超過產(chǎn)出總量的增長情形國際上少見，在中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展史上也未曾有過。上世紀(jì)90年代，中國高貨幣化率的問題曾經(jīng)引發(fā)熱議。Mckinnon (1993)曾經(jīng)預(yù)言如果中國政府繼續(xù)依賴于國有銀行體系的貸款，東歐型的通貨膨脹將無法避免；世界銀行(1996)的分析則表明，中國在改革初期通過企業(yè)和居民在銀行留存的大量儲蓄存款所形成的金融剩余，在實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟高速增長的同時避免了通貨膨脹�？墒牵S著中國的貨幣余額越來越多，高增長低通脹的情形將很難一直保持下去。盡管如此，中國的貨幣化率至今沒有減速的跡象，并且仍然沒有引發(fā)明顯的通貨膨脹，甚至在1997-2006年大約十年期間里，出現(xiàn)通貨膨脹率均值接近于1%的低通脹情形。可見Mckinnon于1993年提出的“中國之謎”現(xiàn)象仍在延續(xù)。 在中國經(jīng)濟高速貨幣化的同時，中國的金融資產(chǎn)經(jīng)歷了迅速擴張的過程，同時還伴隨著資產(chǎn)價格的劇烈波動。傳統(tǒng)理論認(rèn)為，資產(chǎn)價格通過財富效應(yīng)、托賓q效應(yīng)以及價格預(yù)期效應(yīng)引起物價上漲，但是越來越多的數(shù)據(jù)表明，資產(chǎn)價格的上漲常常與價格穩(wěn)定或是價格下降相伴隨，尤其是近年來，我國物價和資產(chǎn)價格表現(xiàn)出明顯的此消彼長的現(xiàn)象，這與傳統(tǒng)理論是相悖的。以上事實說明，在我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展過程的貨幣化進(jìn)程表現(xiàn)出明顯的復(fù)雜性，貨幣供給、物價和資產(chǎn)價格之間的關(guān)系模糊不清。不但增加了經(jīng)濟的運行風(fēng)險，也對貨幣政策調(diào)控提出了挑戰(zhàn)。 基于上述認(rèn)識，本文對貨幣化的相關(guān)理論與概念重新進(jìn)行梳理，并對中國的貨幣化進(jìn)程進(jìn)行了實證檢驗。具體內(nèi)容包括：(1)依據(jù)貨幣化的測度體系對貨幣化的廣度和深度進(jìn)行了理論分析與實證檢驗，并探討了體制改革對貨幣化進(jìn)程的促進(jìn)作用；(2)將要素貨幣化納入對中國經(jīng)濟貨幣化進(jìn)程的考察范圍，實證檢驗貨幣化進(jìn)程非均衡的表現(xiàn)以及對通貨膨脹的影響；(3)對促進(jìn)貨幣化進(jìn)程以及導(dǎo)致貨幣化進(jìn)程非均衡的外部影響因素進(jìn)行實證分析。 通過實證分析，得到如下結(jié)論： 1.我國貨幣深化在穩(wěn)步推進(jìn)。貨幣化指數(shù)的不同增長速度以及貨幣深化指數(shù)波動的主要原因是公眾貨幣需求結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整。低層次的貨幣對價格的影響較強，高層次貨幣對價格影響較弱，隨著貨幣的深化，貨幣與價格的關(guān)系將逐漸弱化。 2.我國要素貨幣化進(jìn)程吸收大量超額貨幣。生產(chǎn)要素由不進(jìn)入市場交易到進(jìn)入市場交易，以及進(jìn)一步到金融市場的交易過程，產(chǎn)生了大量的貨幣需求。另外，金融抑制導(dǎo)致我國經(jīng)濟貨幣化與金融化之間主要表現(xiàn)為互補效應(yīng)。金融化率的增長可以促進(jìn)貨幣化率的增長，在我國這一關(guān)系尤為明顯，這也是我國貨幣化率M2GDP持續(xù)走高的原因之一。 3.我國貨幣化進(jìn)程于2008年出現(xiàn)結(jié)構(gòu)突變。2008年前后產(chǎn)品貨幣化進(jìn)程出現(xiàn)明顯的增速，要素貨幣化進(jìn)程出現(xiàn)明顯的減速。這意味著我國貨幣化進(jìn)程的非均衡程度出現(xiàn)了調(diào)整，貨幣在實體經(jīng)濟和金融市場中的配置發(fā)生了改變，由此導(dǎo)致我國貨幣供給引發(fā)價格上漲的直接效應(yīng)逐漸減弱。 4.貨幣化進(jìn)程的非均衡對通貨膨脹具有顯著的影響。市場機制不暢通導(dǎo)致貨幣在經(jīng)濟中的配置出現(xiàn)明顯的阻滯，使得貨幣不能在實體經(jīng)濟和金融市場之間得到最優(yōu)配置，這是貨幣化非均衡形成的原因。從貨幣化非均衡的角度講，通貨膨脹的產(chǎn)生是公眾放棄貨幣資產(chǎn)和金融資產(chǎn)，轉(zhuǎn)而持有實物資產(chǎn)，導(dǎo)致實物資產(chǎn)需求增加的結(jié)果。 5.匯率和匯率預(yù)期對貨幣化速度和貨幣化進(jìn)程的非均衡均有顯著影響。人民幣幣值的低估和人民幣的升值預(yù)期會加劇經(jīng)常賬戶和資本賬戶的不平衡程度，不但引起外匯儲備的快速增漲還大幅度的增加了貨幣需求，，因此促進(jìn)了貨幣化速度的快速提升。由于匯率與價格和資產(chǎn)價格的聯(lián)動機制具有不確定性，在經(jīng)濟高速貨幣化的同時，也對貨幣化的均衡程度產(chǎn)生顯著影響。 6.金融控制對我國的高貨幣化率和貨幣化進(jìn)程的非均衡的形成起到至關(guān)重要的作用。利率管制和匯率管制扭曲了貨幣政策的傳導(dǎo)機制，對金融自由化的控制抑制了金融市場功能的發(fā)揮，使得投資和融資過程過分依賴于銀行，這些金融控制政策使得貨幣不能得到有效配置。因而，利率和匯率的市場化改革、促進(jìn)金融自由化是緩解我國高貨幣化問題和貨幣化進(jìn)程非均衡問題的關(guān)鍵所在。 本文的研究與以往以貨幣化為主題的相關(guān)研究最大的不同之處在于以貨幣化進(jìn)程非均衡為視角考察了我國的貨幣化進(jìn)程，檢驗了貨幣化進(jìn)程非均衡的形成機制以及貨幣化進(jìn)程非均衡對通貨膨脹的影響機制。本文研究的結(jié)果對于建立貨幣與通脹風(fēng)險關(guān)聯(lián)機制和推動全球流動性管理具有積極意義。
[Abstract]:The concept of monetization is often mentioned, but the academic world has not yet given a clear definition. Since the monetary system has gone away from the gold standard, the price of financial assets has risen rapidly, nearly a hundred times, but this is nominal, money does not represent real capital. The global economy is going through increasing money to ensure growth, It is a process of monetization.
From the point of view of China, monetization indicators M0GDP, M2GDP, M2GDP have been rising rapidly, especially in the early period of reform and opening up only 0.32010 years have exceeded 1.8, so far there has not been a downward trend. So long the total amount of money exceeds the total output of the situation is rarely seen in the history of China's economic development has not been in the past. In 90s, the question of the high monetization rate in China had triggered a hot debate.Mckinnon (1993) once predicted that if the Chinese government continued to rely on loans from the state-owned banking system, the Eastern European type of inflation would not be avoided; the analysis of the World Bank (1996) showed that China retained a large amount of storage in the bank by enterprises and residents at the beginning of the reform. The financial surplus formed by deposit savings has avoided inflation while achieving high economic growth. However, as China's monetary balance is increasing, it will be difficult to maintain high growth and low inflation. However, China's monetization rate has not slowed down, and it still does not cause obvious inflation. Inflation, even during the 1997-2006 - year period of about ten years, has a low inflation rate that is close to 1% of the inflation rate. It is clear that the "Chinese mystery", proposed by Mckinnon in 1993, is still continuing.
At the same time of high speed monetization of China's economy, China's financial assets have experienced a process of rapid expansion and accompanied by violent fluctuations in asset prices. The traditional theory holds that the asset price has passed the wealth effect, the Tobin q effect and the price expectation effect caused the price rise, but more and more data show that the price of assets is rising. It is often accompanied by price stability or price decline, especially in recent years, the price and asset price of our country has shown an obvious phenomenon, which is contrary to the traditional theory. The above facts show that the Monetization Process in the process of economic development in our country shows obvious complexity, money supply, price and asset prices. The relationship is blurred. It not only increases the operational risk of the economy, but also challenges the adjustment and control of monetary policy.
Based on the above understanding, this article reviews the related theories and concepts of monetization, and carries out an empirical test on the process of monetization in China. The specific contents include: (1) theoretical analysis and empirical test are carried out on the breadth and depth of monetization according to the measurement system of monetization, and the process of monetization on the process of monetization is discussed. Promoting effect; (2) integrating the monetization of elements into the scope of China's economic monetization, empirically testing the imbalanced performance of Monetization Process and the impact on inflation; (3) the empirical analysis of the external factors affecting the process of monetization and the disequilibrium of the process of monetization.
Through the empirical analysis, we get the following conclusions:
1. the monetary deepening of our country is steadily advancing. The main reason for the different growth rate of the monetization index and the fluctuation of the currency deepening index is the adjustment of the structure of the demand of the public money. The lower level of money has a strong influence on the price. The influence of the high level currency on the price is weak. With the deepening of the currency, the relationship between money and price will gradually weaken.
2. China's factor Monetization Process absorbs a large amount of excess money. The factors of production have produced a large amount of money demand from non entry into market transaction to market transaction and further to the financial market. In addition, financial inhibition leads to the complementation effect between economic monetization and finance in China. Length can promote the growth of monetization rate, especially in China. This is also one of the reasons why China's monetization rate M2GDP continues to rise.
3. the process of monetization in China appeared in 2008. The process of monetization of products appeared obvious growth in 2008. The process of monetization of elements has been decelerated obviously. This means that the non equilibrium degree of the process of monetization in China has been adjusted, and the allocation of money in the real economy and the financial market has changed, which led to me. The direct effect of rising money supply on prices has gradually weakened.
4. the disequilibrium of the process of monetization has a significant impact on inflation. The unimpeded market mechanism leads to a clear blockage in the allocation of money in the economy, which makes it impossible to get the optimal allocation between the real economy and the financial market. This is the original cause of the formation of the imbalanced monetization. Inflation results from the fact that the public abandonment of monetary assets and financial assets, instead of holding physical assets, result in an increase in demand for physical assets.
5. exchange rate and exchange rate expectations have significant impact on the imbalances of monetization speed and the process of monetization. The undervaluation of the value of the RMB and the appreciation of the RMB will increase the imbalance between the current account and the capital account, which not only causes the rapid increase of foreign exchange reserves but also increases the demand for money, thus promoting the speed of monetization. Due to the uncertainty of the linkage mechanism of exchange rate and price and asset price, it also has a significant impact on the balance of monetization at the same time of high speed monetization of economy.
6. financial control plays a vital role in the formation of the high monetization rate and the imbalanced formation of the Monetization Process in China. Interest rate control and exchange rate control distort the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The control of financial liberalization inhibits the function of the financial market and makes the investment and financing process excessively dependent on the banks. The control policy makes the currency cannot be effectively configured. Therefore, the market-oriented reform of interest rate and exchange rate and the promotion of financial liberalization are the key to alleviating the problem of high monetization and imbalanced monetization in China.
The biggest difference between this study and the previous research on monetization is that the monetization process is examined in the perspective of the imbalanced Monetization Process, the formation mechanism of the imbalanced Monetization Process and the influence mechanism of the imbalanced Monetization Process on the inflation are examined. Currency and inflation risk linkage mechanism and promoting global liquidity management is of positive significance.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F224;F822.2

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 張春舒;中國三次產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變化對M_2/GDP的影響研究[D];吉林大學(xué);2014年

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