本文選題：分析師實(shí)地調(diào)研 + 信息不確定性��； 參考：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：證券分析師是資本市場(chǎng)的重要參與者,他們利用自身的專業(yè)知識(shí)和資源為市場(chǎng)提供信息,降低投資者與上市公司之間的信息不對(duì)稱程度,以便投資者做出投資決策。證券分析師為市場(chǎng)提供的信息可以分為兩種類型,第一類是對(duì)上市公司公開信息進(jìn)行加工而產(chǎn)生的信息,第二類是通過對(duì)公司的跟蹤調(diào)研而獲得的非公開信息。因此,證券分析師的信息來源眾多,包括公司公布的定期和臨時(shí)報(bào)告、公司召開的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)、自己對(duì)公司的電話訪問和實(shí)地調(diào)研、與公司內(nèi)部人員的私下交流以及各類媒體的公開報(bào)道等。相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的研究結(jié)果顯示,實(shí)地調(diào)研是獲取信息量最大、信息深度和可信度最高的信息來源之一,但是伴隨高收益而來的是實(shí)地調(diào)研的高成本,證券分析師在做出是否進(jìn)行實(shí)地調(diào)研的決策之前,會(huì)權(quán)衡相關(guān)的成本收益。公司層面和分析師層面的諸多因素都會(huì)影響證券分析師的決策,本文從公司層面對(duì)證券分析師實(shí)地調(diào)研的影響因素進(jìn)行了研究。 本文主要從信息角度來探究影響證券分析師實(shí)地調(diào)研的因素。信息分為內(nèi)部特征、外部需求和內(nèi)外聯(lián)系三個(gè)方面,內(nèi)部特征主要是信息內(nèi)容,外部需求主要是信息需求者,內(nèi)外聯(lián)系主要是信息披露。信息內(nèi)容的不確定性、信息披露的透明度和作為信息需求者的機(jī)構(gòu)投資者持股都會(huì)對(duì)證券分析師的實(shí)地調(diào)研決策產(chǎn)生影響。本文選擇了2008-2010這三年期間被證券分析師跟蹤覆蓋的深交所主板A股公司為研究樣本,分別進(jìn)行了實(shí)地調(diào)研概率和強(qiáng)度兩個(gè)角度的實(shí)證研究,其中,概率研究是以公司本年內(nèi)是否接受了證券分析師實(shí)地調(diào)研為被解釋變量,強(qiáng)度研究是以公司本年內(nèi)接受的證券分析師實(shí)地調(diào)研次數(shù)為被解釋變量,并選擇適當(dāng)?shù)慕忉屪兞拷⒛Ｐ瓦M(jìn)行實(shí)證研究。本文將公司前三年?duì)I業(yè)收入的平均增長率、前三年?duì)I業(yè)利潤的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)離差率和上年度無形資產(chǎn)占總資產(chǎn)的比例這三個(gè)指標(biāo)分別扣除行業(yè)平均水平,以新得到的三個(gè)變量作為信息不確定性的替代變量；以深圳證券交易所網(wǎng)站公布的上市公司上年誠信檔案評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果作為公司信息透明度的替代變量;以公司上年是否存在機(jī)構(gòu)持股者這一啞變量作為機(jī)構(gòu)投資者持股的替代變量,從概率和強(qiáng)度兩個(gè)方面入手,分別建立了logistic回歸模型和Tobit回歸模型進(jìn)行了探究。 實(shí)證研究結(jié)果表明,在概率方面,公司信息內(nèi)容的不確定性越高、信息披露的透明度越高、機(jī)構(gòu)投資者在公司股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)中的地位越重要,證券分析師對(duì)該公司進(jìn)行實(shí)地調(diào)研的概率越大。在強(qiáng)度方面,信息不確定性的三個(gè)替代變量中,只有業(yè)績波動(dòng)的顯著性較強(qiáng),業(yè)績波動(dòng)程度越高,證券分析師實(shí)地調(diào)研的強(qiáng)度越低；信息透明度和機(jī)構(gòu)投資者持股對(duì)實(shí)地調(diào)研強(qiáng)度的影響十分顯著,公司信息披露的透明度越高、機(jī)構(gòu)投資者在公司股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)中的地位越重要,證券分析師對(duì)該公司進(jìn)行實(shí)地調(diào)研的強(qiáng)度越大。
[Abstract]:Securities analyst is an important participant in the capital market, they use their expertise and resources to provide information to the market, reduce the degree of information asymmetry between investors and listed companies, investors to make investment decisions. The securities analyst for the market to provide information can be divided into two types, the first is caused to the information disclosure of the listed companies the information processing, the second category is obtained by tracking and investigating on the company's non-public information. Therefore, analysts' information sources are numerous, including the company published regularly and interim report, the company held a press conference on the company's own, telephone interview and on-the-spot investigation, communicate privately with the company's internal staff and all kinds of media the public reports. Relevant research results show that field research is to obtain the largest amount of information, information and credibility of the depth One of the sources of information is high, but accompanied by high yield is high cost of on-the-spot investigation, before the securities analyst in the investigation of whether or not to make the decision, will weigh the costs and benefits related to many factors. The company level and the level of analyst will affect the securities analyst decision is studied in this paper from the face of the company level influencing factors of securities analyst investigation.
This paper mainly from the perspective of information to explore the influencing factors of securities analyst research. Information is divided into three aspects: internal features, external demand and internal and external links, internal features are mainly information content, external demand is mainly information needs, information disclosure is the main internal and external links. The information content of uncertainty, information disclosure and transparency as the information needs of institutional investors will have an impact on the securities analyst investigation decision. This paper selected 2008-2010 for the three year period by securities analysts tracking coverage of the motherboard Shenzhen A shares of the company as the research sample, respectively, for the empirical research, two angles of investigation probability and intensity of the probability is the company this year whether to accept the securities analyst survey as explanatory variables, the strength of the company this year is to receive the securities analysts Investigation of the number of explanatory variables, and set up a model for empirical research chooses proper explanatory variables. The average rate of growth in operating income of the company three years ago, three years before the operating profit rate of standard deviation and the intangible assets to total assets ratio of these three indicators are the industry average net, to three new variables obtained as a substitution variable of uncertainty information; published by the website of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange listed companies last year credit archives evaluation results as the proxy of information transparency; to the company over whether the institutional shareholders of the dummy variable as a proxy of institutional investors, from the two aspects of probability and the strength were established logistic regression model and Tobit regression model were studied.
The empirical results show that the probability of the information content of the company, the higher the uncertainty of information disclosure, the higher transparency, position of institutional investors in the shareholding structure of the company's more important, the probability of securities analyst research and investigation on the company's larger. In the aspect of strength, three alternative variables of uncertain information in the only significant fluctuations in performance, stronger, higher performance fluctuations, securities analysts survey strength is low; influence of information transparency and institutional investors on field research strength is very significant, the company information disclosure transparency is higher, the status of institutional investors in the shareholding structure of the company more important in the field of securities analysts research on the company's strength is greater.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51;F224

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