本文選題：商業(yè)銀行流動性 + 房地產(chǎn)價格�。� 參考：《東北財經(jīng)大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：商業(yè)銀行作為中國金融體系的核心,對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展、社會進步具有重要的作用,商業(yè)銀行通過信用中介、支付中介、金融服務、信用創(chuàng)造和經(jīng)濟調(diào)節(jié)等職能,是中央銀行貨幣政策的首要傳遞者,也是現(xiàn)代社會經(jīng)濟運轉(zhuǎn)的重要樞紐之一。房地產(chǎn)業(yè)是發(fā)展國民經(jīng)濟和改善人民生活的基礎產(chǎn)業(yè)之一,已經(jīng)成為國民經(jīng)濟的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè),可以改善人們的居住和生活條件,可以擴大就業(yè),可以促進經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展。商業(yè)銀行的流動性,是指商業(yè)銀行的資金具有的自由流動能力。房地產(chǎn)價格早已經(jīng)成為中國人關注的焦點和熱點,能否買上房、住上房,早已成為青年人最為關心的話題。中國商業(yè)銀行流動性對房地產(chǎn)價格有什么影響,成為一個值得思考的問題。 日本房地產(chǎn)泡沫給日本經(jīng)濟帶來了巨大的創(chuàng)傷,美國“次貸危機”演化為一場世界性的經(jīng)濟浩劫,雖然國家進行過多次調(diào)控,但目前中國房價仍居高不下,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)是資金密集性行業(yè),資金來源的一個重要途徑就是金融市場,而目前中國的金融市場以商業(yè)銀行為中心,因此,對中國商業(yè)銀行流動性對房地產(chǎn)價格的影響進行研究,具有重要的意義：不僅有利于國家引導商業(yè)銀行和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)健康發(fā)展,也有利于商業(yè)銀行防范流動性風險,良性運行;更有利于房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)防范內(nèi)部風險,良性發(fā)展。 為了研究中國商業(yè)銀行流動性對房地產(chǎn)價格的影響,首先,先研究了商業(yè)銀行流動性的相關理論,如商業(yè)銀行流動性管理理論的演變、商業(yè)銀行流動性的測量,又分析了房地產(chǎn)的相關理論,如房地產(chǎn)價格的影響因素、測量等；接下來,研究了商業(yè)銀行流動性與房地產(chǎn)價格的傳導機制,了解了商業(yè)銀行流動性作用于房地產(chǎn)價格的傳導渠道以及房地產(chǎn)價格作用于商業(yè)銀行流動性的傳導渠道；然后,從中國實際情況出發(fā),考察商業(yè)銀行流動性與房地產(chǎn)價格,了解中國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的融資情況以及進行中國商業(yè)銀行投入到房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的貸款分析。接下來做了實證檢驗：把商業(yè)銀行的超額準備金和庫存現(xiàn)金占總資產(chǎn)的比例,作為衡量商業(yè)銀行流動性的指標；用商品房銷售均價,作為衡量房地產(chǎn)價格的指標；在現(xiàn)實生活中,房地產(chǎn)價格還會受其他因素影響,尤其是經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和利率變化,借鑒其他研究方式,在模型中增加了經(jīng)濟發(fā)展指標與市場利率指標。本文選取了2006至2012的月度數(shù)據(jù)作為研究對象,在數(shù)據(jù)處理之后,進行根平穩(wěn)性檢驗、協(xié)整性檢驗、格蘭杰因果檢驗；接下來,進行了脈沖響應分析和方差分解。 實證結(jié)果顯示,商業(yè)銀行流動性和房地產(chǎn)價格擁有長期穩(wěn)定的關系,呈現(xiàn)明顯的相關性,商業(yè)銀行流動性下降,房價就會上漲。商業(yè)銀行流動性和房地產(chǎn)價格具有長期穩(wěn)定的關系,其實揭示了整個貨幣市場的流動性和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展也具有相應的關系,因為商業(yè)銀行是中國金融體系的重要組成部分,在貨幣、資本市場上具有舉足輕重的地位,假如商業(yè)銀行把資金投入到市場,那么市場的流動性就會加強,而商業(yè)銀行本身的流動性就會減弱,商業(yè)銀行流動性和市場流動性也呈現(xiàn)明顯的相關性。最后,在理論分析、現(xiàn)實考察和實證檢驗的基礎上,提出了相應的對策建議,認為政府應該加強商業(yè)銀行流動性的監(jiān)控、大力發(fā)展資本市場、規(guī)范房地產(chǎn)市場秩序；商業(yè)銀行應該重視對商業(yè)銀行流動性的監(jiān)控、加強房地產(chǎn)信貸管理；房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)應該拓寬融資渠道、規(guī)范內(nèi)部管理,理性發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Commercial banks as the core of the financial system Chinese, on economic development, plays an important role in the progress of the society, the commercial bank through the credit intermediary, the intermediary payment, financial services, credit creation and economic adjustment and other functions, is the most important transmission of monetary policy of the central bank, also is one of the important hub of modern social and economic operation of the real estate industry. Is one of the basic industry of national economic development and improving people's lives, has become a pillar industry of the national economy, improve people's living conditions, can expand employment, can promote economic development. The liquidity of commercial banks, refers to the free flow of capital has the ability of commercial banks. The real estate price has already become focus Chinese attention, can buy housing, live main rooms, has become the most concern for young people. Chinese commercial bank liquidity to the real estate price What is the effect of grid? It becomes a question worth thinking.
The Japanese real estate bubble has brought great trauma to the Japanese economy, the US subprime crisis evolved into a global economic catastrophe, although the country had many regulation, but the current China prices remained high, the real estate industry is a capital intensive industry, one of the important sources of the funds is the financial market. At present, Chinese financial market to commercial banks as the center, therefore, to study the impact of commercial bank Chinese liquidity on the price of real estate, is of great significance: not only conducive to the country to guide commercial banks and real estate industry healthy development, but also conducive to the commercial bank liquidity risk, more conducive to real operation; the real estate enterprise internal risk prevention, benign development.
In order to study the commercial bank Chinese liquidity impact on real estate prices first, first studies the relevant theories of commercial bank liquidity, such as the evolution theory of liquidity management of commercial banks, measuring the liquidity of commercial banks, and analyzes the related theories of real estate, such as the factors that affect the real estate price measurement; next, the research on the conduction mechanism of liquidity of commercial banks and real estate prices, transmission channels to understand the role of liquidity of commercial banks to the real estate price transmission channel, real estate price effect on the liquidity of commercial banks; then, starting from the actual situation of Chinese, investigate the liquidity of commercial banks and real estate prices, understand the financing Chinese situation of the real estate industry analysis and Commercial Bank China into real estate loans. Then make an empirical test: the commercial bank excess reserve and The cash to total assets ratio, as a measure of commercial bank liquidity index; the average price of commercial housing sales, as a measure of the real estate price index; in real life, real estate prices will be affected by other factors, especially the economic development and changes in interest rates, with other research methods, the index of economic development and the market interest rate index increased in the model. This paper selects the monthly data from 2006 to 2012 as the research object, in the data processing, the root stationarity test, cointegration test, Granger causality test Grainger; next, in the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition.
The empirical results show that the liquidity of commercial banks and real estate prices have a long-term stable relationship, showing a significant correlation between the liquidity of commercial banks declined, prices will rise. The liquidity of commercial banks and real estate prices have a long-term stable relationship, but also reveals the corresponding relations with the whole money market liquidity and the real estate industry, because commercial banks are an important part of the financial system in China currency, has an important status in the capital market, if commercial banks put money into the market, then the market liquidity will be strengthened, and the liquidity of commercial banks will be weakened, the liquidity of commercial bank liquidity and market correlation. Finally, in the theoretical analysis, practical investigation and empirical basis, put forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions that the government should strengthen the business. To monitor the liquidity of industrial banks, vigorously develop the capital market and standardize the order of the real estate market; commercial banks should attach importance to monitoring the liquidity of commercial banks and strengthen the management of real estate credit; the real estate enterprises should broaden the financing channels, standardize the internal management and develop rationally.

【學位授予單位】：東北財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.33;F299.23

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