本文選題：QE + 泡沫生成和破裂�。� 參考：《國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)論》2011年01期

【摘要】：作者闡明了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)提出量化寬松Ⅱ(QE2)的現(xiàn)實(shí)背景和政策思想淵源,分析了QE2的經(jīng)濟(jì)后果以及中國(guó)面臨的政策挑戰(zhàn)。如果QE2引起的流動(dòng)性增加主要在美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)被消化,那么通貨膨脹和資產(chǎn)泡沫有可能使美國(guó)重演2002-2007年的"泡沫生成和破裂"周期;如果QE2引起的流動(dòng)性大量流向新興市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體,那么后者有可能再現(xiàn)20世紀(jì)90年代中后期的金融動(dòng)蕩。而無論何種可能性發(fā)生,QE2都將導(dǎo)致美元貶值。面對(duì)QE2沖擊,中國(guó)應(yīng)該實(shí)施的政策安排包括:加快人民幣名義升值、實(shí)施穩(wěn)健甚至從緊的貨幣政策、加強(qiáng)資本管制、繼續(xù)采取積極的財(cái)政政策、加強(qiáng)金融監(jiān)管和積極推動(dòng)國(guó)際貨幣體系改革等。
[Abstract]:The author clarifies the realistic background and the origin of policy ideas of the Federal Reserve's proposal of quantitative easing II / QE2, analyzes the economic consequences of QE2 and the policy challenges facing China.If the increase in liquidity caused by QE2 is largely absorbed within the United States, then inflation and asset bubbles are likely to lead to a repeat of the "bubble generation and burst" cycle of 2002-2007; if the liquidity generated by QE2 were to flow heavily to emerging market economies,The latter is likely to recreate the financial turmoil of the mid-and late 1990 s.Whatever the possibility, QE2 will devalue the dollar.In the face of the impact of QE2, China should implement policies such as speeding up the nominal appreciation of the renminbi, implementing a prudent or even tight monetary policy, strengthening capital controls, and continuing to adopt active fiscal policies.We will strengthen financial supervision and actively promote the reform of the international monetary system.
【作者單位】： 中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)金融學(xué)院;
【基金】：教育部“國(guó)際金融危機(jī)應(yīng)對(duì)研究”應(yīng)急課題重大項(xiàng)目“全球金融危機(jī)沖擊下的中國(guó):宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策選擇和結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整”(2009JYJR001)的階段性成果
【分類號(hào)】：F827.12;F123.16
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本文編號(hào)：1734872