本文選題：新興經(jīng)濟體　切入點：金融危機　出處：《武漢理工大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：從20世紀90年代以來,日益壯大的新興經(jīng)濟體國家屢次遭到金融危機的沖擊,損失慘重。伴隨著全球經(jīng)濟、貿(mào)易一體化的飛速發(fā)展,金融危機傳染效應表現(xiàn)出前所未有的復雜性、廣泛性,對傳統(tǒng)的金融危機理論提出了挑戰(zhàn)。因此,把握金融危機傳染的本質(zhì),揭示危機傳染的主要誘因,對于新興經(jīng)濟體國家具有重大的現(xiàn)實意義。 本文首先對現(xiàn)有的關于金融危機傳染的文獻進行研究總結(jié),在界定金融危機傳染定義的基礎上,對危機傳染機制進行了分析。隨后,以近期發(fā)生在亞洲的兩次新興經(jīng)濟體危機(1997年的東南亞金融危機、2008年的越南金融危機)為例,運用向量自回歸(VAR)模型對危機的傳染性進行了動態(tài)檢驗,結(jié)果表明,無論是從傳染范圍還是破壞力度上來講,東南亞危機的傳染性都很顯著,而越南危機傳染性很薄弱,與兩次金融危機發(fā)生的實際情況相吻合。在此基礎上,選取傳染性顯著的東南亞各國的面板數(shù)據(jù)為樣本,采用逐步剔除回歸模型,分析了傳染效應的顯著誘因,分別為GDP增長率、金融自由化程度、通貨膨脹率、經(jīng)常賬戶狀況和金融賬戶狀況,這也為新興經(jīng)濟體制定防范金融危機傳染的措施提供了良好的理論基礎。 根據(jù)理論與實證分析結(jié)果,提出新興經(jīng)濟體防范和緩解危機傳染效應需要加強國際間協(xié)作、維持本國國際收支平衡以及謹慎開放資本項目。結(jié)合我國現(xiàn)階段的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展狀況,本文進一步從如何防范金融危機貿(mào)易傳染、金融傳染以及預期傳染三個方面提出了具有針對性的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since 1990s, the growing emerging economies have been hit repeatedly by the financial crisis and suffered heavy losses. With the rapid development of the global economy and trade integration, The contagion effect of financial crisis shows unprecedented complexity and extensiveness, which challenges the traditional theory of financial crisis. Therefore, we should grasp the essence of financial crisis contagion and reveal the main inducement of crisis contagion. It is of great practical significance for emerging economies. This paper first studies and summarizes the existing literature on financial crisis contagion, then analyzes the mechanism of financial crisis contagion on the basis of defining the definition of financial crisis contagion. Taking two recent crises of emerging economies in Asia (the financial crisis in Southeast Asia in 1997 and the financial crisis in Vietnam in 2008) as an example, a dynamic test of the contagion of the crisis is carried out by using the vector autoregressive regression (VAR) model. The contagion of the crisis in Southeast Asia is very significant in terms of both the scope of contagion and the intensity of destruction, while the contagion of the crisis in Vietnam is very weak, which is consistent with the actual situation of the two financial crises. On this basis, In this paper, the panel data of Southeast Asian countries with significant infectivity are selected as samples, and the stepwise elimination regression model is used to analyze the significant inducements of contagion effect, which are the growth rate of GDP, the degree of financial liberalization, the rate of inflation, respectively. Current account and financial account conditions also provide a sound theoretical basis for emerging economies to formulate measures to prevent contagion from financial crises. According to the results of theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper points out that emerging economies need to strengthen international cooperation, maintain their balance of payments and carefully open their capital accounts in order to prevent and mitigate the contagion effects of crisis. This paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to prevent financial crisis from trade contagion, financial contagion and expected contagion.
【學位授予單位】：武漢理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F830.99

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