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中國(guó)貨幣政策對(duì)股票價(jià)格波動(dòng)影響的實(shí)證研究

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-03-09 18:33

  本文選題:貨幣政策 切入點(diǎn):股票市場(chǎng) 出處:《中國(guó)政法大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文 論文類型:學(xué)位論文


【摘要】:關(guān)于貨幣政策與股票市場(chǎng)關(guān)系的研究,一直是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)領(lǐng)域的熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題之一,但迄今為止研究學(xué)者并未就此達(dá)成一致意見(jiàn);仡櫳献C綜合指數(shù)歷史走勢(shì)情況,,我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)也曾發(fā)生過(guò)頻繁的、大幅的波動(dòng)。由于現(xiàn)階段我國(guó)金融體系還不夠健全,股票市場(chǎng)非基本面的波動(dòng)極有可能給實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)巨大沖擊。因此,研究貨幣政策的執(zhí)行對(duì)股票市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)的影響既有理論的必要性,更有現(xiàn)實(shí)的迫切性。 本文以貨幣政策的執(zhí)行對(duì)股票價(jià)格波動(dòng)的影響作為研究對(duì)象,深入分析貨幣政策影響股票市場(chǎng)的作用機(jī)制,并將貨幣政策相關(guān)指標(biāo)與上證綜合指數(shù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。文章實(shí)證部分采用了單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)、向量自回歸(VAR)模型、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)分析以及方差分解,以對(duì)貨幣政策、股票價(jià)格兩者關(guān)系進(jìn)行深入探究。 本論文共分五章。第一章為緒論。包括論文選題的研究背景、研究的意義及目的、論文的研究結(jié)構(gòu)及應(yīng)用的計(jì)量研究方法、可能存在的創(chuàng)新和不足、文獻(xiàn)綜述。 第二章介紹貨幣政策相關(guān)理論及股票市場(chǎng)相關(guān)理論。該章節(jié)總結(jié)了貨幣政策執(zhí)行的相關(guān)理論、股票市場(chǎng)理論以及貨幣政策影響股票市場(chǎng)的三種作用渠道,以為下文的實(shí)證研究提供理論基礎(chǔ)。 第三章分析了我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)建立以來(lái)中國(guó)人民銀行貨幣政策的執(zhí)行情況,并著重分析貨幣政策的執(zhí)行對(duì)股票市場(chǎng)價(jià)格波動(dòng)的影響。本章從三個(gè)方面進(jìn)行闡述,即貨幣政策工具的三個(gè)方面,包括金融機(jī)構(gòu)存貸款基準(zhǔn)利率的調(diào)整、公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)操作業(yè)務(wù)、存款準(zhǔn)備金制度等。 第四章為本論文的實(shí)證研究部分,包括數(shù)據(jù)的選取說(shuō)明、計(jì)量方法的選取以及實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。 第五章為實(shí)證研究結(jié)論及相應(yīng)政策建議。本章對(duì)第四章的計(jì)量結(jié)果進(jìn)行分析總結(jié),并據(jù)此提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:The study of the relationship between monetary policy and the stock market has been one of the hot issues in the field of economics, but so far researchers have not reached an agreement on this issue. China's stock market has also experienced frequent, large fluctuations. Because the current financial system in China is not sound enough, the non-fundamental fluctuations of the stock market are likely to bring a huge impact on the real economy. It is necessary and urgent to study the effect of monetary policy on stock market volatility. In this paper, the effect of monetary policy on stock price fluctuation is studied, and the mechanism of monetary policy affecting stock market is deeply analyzed. The empirical part uses unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test, vector autoregressive VAR-model, impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition. In order to the monetary policy, the stock price two relations carries on the thorough exploration. This paper is divided into five chapters. The first chapter is the introduction. It includes the research background, the significance and purpose, the research structure and the applied metrological research methods, the possible innovation and deficiency, and the literature review. The second chapter introduces the theories of monetary policy and stock market. This chapter summarizes the relevant theories of monetary policy implementation, the stock market theory and the three ways that monetary policy affects the stock market. To provide the theoretical basis for the empirical study below. The third chapter analyzes the implementation of the monetary policy of the people's Bank of China since the establishment of the stock market, and focuses on the impact of the implementation of the monetary policy on the stock market price fluctuations. That is, three aspects of monetary policy instruments, including the adjustment of deposit and loan benchmark interest rate of financial institutions, open market operation business, deposit reserve system, and so on. Chapter 4th is the empirical research part of this paper, including the data selection explanation, the measurement method selection and the empirical test. Chapter 5th is the conclusion of empirical research and the corresponding policy recommendations. This chapter analyzes and summarizes the measurement results of Chapter 4th and puts forward corresponding policy recommendations accordingly.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:中國(guó)政法大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2013
【分類號(hào)】:F832.51;F822.0

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

中國(guó)期刊全文數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù) 前10條

1 左金保;張海龍;;我國(guó)貨幣政策對(duì)股票市場(chǎng)的協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)[J];法制與社會(huì);2007年09期

2 劉q

本文編號(hào):1589740


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