本文關鍵詞： 人民幣升值 貨幣政策 外匯市場壓力影響　出處：《暨南大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：人民幣匯率問題自提出至今，已經(jīng)足足10年了；但是，中國經(jīng)濟的內(nèi)部和外部失衡的問題仍然沒有得到妥善解決。為了中國經(jīng)濟能更穩(wěn)定更健康地發(fā)展，將人民幣匯率的壓力轉(zhuǎn)化為經(jīng)濟上行的動力，是個刻不容緩的課題。 而能夠調(diào)整經(jīng)濟發(fā)展動向的途徑就是通過一國的貨幣政策，那么人民幣匯率與我國貨幣政策的相互影響就是研究之中的重點。貨幣政策主要是通過貨幣政策工具的直接操作，經(jīng)中介變量傳導進而影響和調(diào)節(jié)實體經(jīng)濟部門，達到中央銀行調(diào)控宏觀經(jīng)濟的目的。我國的主要貨幣政策工具有公開市場業(yè)務、存款準備金政策、中央銀行貸款（再貼現(xiàn)）、利率政策和匯率政策。本文就從外匯市場壓力和貨幣政策工具之間的相互影響得出緩解人民幣升值壓力的方法。 對外匯市場壓力(Exchange Market Pressure)的研究是近年來經(jīng)濟研究中相對新穎和吸引的課題。研究的重點是討論外匯市場壓力與國內(nèi)信貸水平、利率、經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)出、國外利率、匯率的失衡幅度等經(jīng)濟指標的關系。有關這課題的研究現(xiàn)狀是Roper和Girton (1977)建立了關于衡量外匯市場壓力的貨幣模型,研究了加拿大的外匯壓力指數(shù)，Kim(1985)研究了韓國的外匯壓力指數(shù)，Tanner(1999)認為,六個亞洲和拉美國家貨幣當局對于已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)的匯率貶值壓力,采取的應對措施不是緊縮國內(nèi)信貸,而是擴大國內(nèi)信貸。Erbil和Kamaly (2000)認為,當外匯市場貶值壓力提高時,中東和北非地區(qū)國家貨幣當局的反應是同時增加國內(nèi)信貸和提高利率。Gochoco-Bautista和Bautista(2005)認為,菲律賓貨幣當局在危機時期對貶值壓力的反應與非危機時期不同,在非危機時期,貨幣當局為緩解貶值壓力常常采用對沖和給銀行提供流動性等手段；但在危機時期,貨幣當局不采取對沖手段,轉(zhuǎn)而采取緊縮國內(nèi)信貸。他們所得出的結(jié)論與傳統(tǒng)的模型基本一致。 本文首先從外匯市場壓力EMP指數(shù)分析，EMP指數(shù)分為模型依賴法EMP指數(shù)和非模型依賴法EMP指數(shù)，而用在研究方面顯然非模型依賴法EMP指數(shù)更為適用。 其次從資本市場途徑和國際貿(mào)易途徑來詮釋人民幣匯率波動對相關貨幣政策的傳導機制。對于資本市場途徑，本文從外匯市場機制、證券市場機制和通過間接融資機制三方面來進行分析。國際貿(mào)易途徑則會用蒙代爾—弗萊明模型的框架來進行分析。 最后利用非模型依賴法EMP指數(shù)和我國貨幣政策變量等內(nèi)生變量建立VAR模型，實證分析本世紀以來人民幣升值壓力與我國貨幣政策及其他內(nèi)生經(jīng)濟變量之間的相互影響。研究結(jié)果表明人民幣升值壓力與貨幣政策變量具有一定的相互影響關系。 根據(jù)以上理論與實證研究，本文提出緩解人民幣升值壓力的對策：第一，，完善我國人民幣匯率形成機制；第二，放開資本項目下的外匯流動管制；第三，逐步改變我國以出口為導向的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展模式；第四，改變我國的外匯留存制度；第五，積極引導和鼓勵我國企業(yè)加大對外投資力度。
[Abstract]:Since RMB exchange rate issue has been put forward, it has been 10 years; however, Chinese economic internal and external imbalances is still unresolved. In order to China economy more stable and healthy development of the RMB exchange rate will be the pressure into the upward momentum of the economy, is a pressing issue.
And the way to adjust the economic development by means of a country's monetary policy, then the focus is on the interaction of the RMB exchange rate and China's monetary policy. Monetary policy is mainly through direct manipulation of tools of monetary policy, through the intermediary variables conduction and then influence and regulate the real economy, the central bank to achieve macroeconomic regulation and control objective. The main tools of monetary policy in China has open market operations, reserve policy, the central bank loans (discount), interest rate policy and exchange rate policy. This paper gives methods to alleviate the pressure of RMB appreciation from the mutual influence between the foreign exchange market pressure and monetary policy tools.
In the foreign exchange market pressure (Exchange Market Pressure) research in recent years is relatively new and attractive economic research topic. The focus of the study is to discuss the foreign exchange market pressure and the level of domestic credit, interest rate, economic output, foreign interest rate index, the degree of imbalance of economic relationship between exchange rate. Research on this subject is Roper and Girton (1977) established a monetary model about the measure of exchange market pressure, the exchange rate pressure index of Canada, Kim (1985) on the Korea exchange market pressure index, Tanner (1999) believes that the monetary authorities of six Asian and Latin American countries has emerged for the exchange rate depreciation pressure, take measures not tighten domestic but the expansion of domestic credit, credit.Erbil and Kamaly (2000) believes that when the foreign exchange market devaluation pressure increases, countries in the Middle East and North Africa monetary authorities' reaction is also increased Domestic credit and raising interest rates of.Gochoco-Bautista and Bautista (2005) believes that the Philippines monetary authority in a crisis of different depreciation pressure response and non crisis in non crisis periods, to banks to provide liquidity and other means of monetary authorities to ease the downward pressure and often used to hedge; but in times of crisis, the monetary authorities not to hedge means, in favour of domestic credit crunch. They concluded with the traditional model is basically the same.
This paper first analyzes the EMP index of foreign exchange market pressure, and the EMP index is divided into the model dependent EMP index and the non model dependent EMP index, while in the aspect of research, it is obvious that the EMP index is more applicable than the model dependent method.
Secondly, from the capital market and international trade way to explain the way the conduction mechanism of RMB exchange rate volatility on monetary policy. For the capital market, this article from the foreign exchange market mechanism, the mechanism of securities market and indirect financing mechanism through three aspects to analyze. The way of international trade will use the framework of Mundell Fleming model to carry on the analysis.
Finally, using the model independent EMP index and monetary policy variables and other endogenous variables to establish VAR model, empirical analysis of this century the pressure of RMB appreciation and China's monetary policy and other endogenous interaction between economic variables. The results show that RMB appreciation pressure and monetary policy variables have a certain interaction relationship.
According to the above theoretical and empirical research, this paper puts forward countermeasures to alleviate the pressure of RMB appreciation: first, perfecting the formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate; second, the deregulation of foreign exchange flows under the capital account; third, gradually change the economic development mode of China's export oriented; fourth, the change of China's foreign exchange retention system; fifth and actively guide and encourage Chinese enterprises to increase foreign investment.

【學位授予單位】：暨南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.6;F822.0

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