本文關(guān)鍵詞： 人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率 國際貿(mào)易 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長 GMM估計　出處：《東北財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：中國經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長的30年間,外貿(mào)所起的作用不可小視。但是由于中國對主要貿(mào)易伙伴國一直以來均保持順差并且順差額逐年加大,造成貿(mào)易伙伴國頗有微詞,普遍認(rèn)為人民幣匯率嚴(yán)重低估。迫于各方壓力及中國經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的需要,2005年7月開始按照主動性、可控性、漸進(jìn)性的原則進(jìn)行匯率制度改革,實(shí)行以市場供求為基礎(chǔ)的、參考一籃子貨幣的浮動匯率制度。截至到2012年2月人民幣兌美元匯率由8.0702升值到6.308,累計升值20.99%。人民幣升值后帶來一系列的影響,大部分領(lǐng)域的出口商品數(shù)量減少,出口企業(yè)利潤下降,面臨生存困境；貿(mào)易順差減少,甚至2012年開始出現(xiàn)逆差。另一方面,人民幣的升值也使得中國企業(yè)的進(jìn)口成本下降,對我國進(jìn)口企業(yè)來說無疑具有積極的作用。 匯率作為一國參與國際經(jīng)濟(jì)活動的重要的綜合性指標(biāo),它的變化將對一國的貿(mào)易收支、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長及產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展都會產(chǎn)生重要的影響。從人民幣發(fā)展史來看,不論是在東南亞危機(jī)中的人民幣貶值的爭議,還是目前人民幣面臨的升值的壓力,關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)都集中在人民幣和外貿(mào)之間的關(guān)系。因此分析人民幣匯率與中國外貿(mào)之間的關(guān)系,不僅關(guān)系到中國外貿(mào)的健康平穩(wěn)發(fā)展和人民幣匯率制度改革的推進(jìn),并且關(guān)系到我國整個改革開放的大局,關(guān)系到中國與貿(mào)易伙伴國之間的貿(mào)易關(guān)系,因此研究人民幣匯率變化與我國外貿(mào)之間的關(guān)系具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 有關(guān)匯率與貿(mào)易的關(guān)系的研究方法主要有時滯效應(yīng)分析法、貨幣分析法、吸收分析法和彈性分析法,已經(jīng)形成了系統(tǒng)的理論體系。其中,尤其是彈性分析法中的馬歇爾——勒納條件,論述十分嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)。貨幣分析法、吸收分析法主要從宏觀層面進(jìn)行分析；時滯效應(yīng)分析法、彈性分析法雖然都是微觀層面的分析,但是它們對于匯率變動和貿(mào)易收支之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了高度的抽象,有嚴(yán)格的假設(shè)前提,例如彈性分析法的假設(shè)前提是匯率變動等同于進(jìn)出口實(shí)際價格的變動,時滯效應(yīng)分析法的假設(shè)前提是進(jìn)出口定價的貨幣比重存在不同。本文的研究目的并不是為了建立一個理論體系,而是針對現(xiàn)實(shí)中的現(xiàn)象做具體的分析,即從人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對中國對外貿(mào)易的發(fā)展這一角度進(jìn)行重點(diǎn)研究,考察人民幣匯率對國際貿(mào)易影響的作用機(jī)制和作用途徑,以期對目前的匯率制度改革提供有益的建議和意見。 本文主要在實(shí)證分析時,不僅對全國層面上匯率對貿(mào)易的影響進(jìn)行了全面的分析,同時為了區(qū)別區(qū)域之間的差異性,還做了分區(qū)域分析。除此之外,為了使匯率變化對我國貿(mào)易發(fā)展方式的影響有更為具體的認(rèn)識,本文還進(jìn)一步分析了人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對我國加工貿(mào)易發(fā)展的影響。 本文擬分七章。 ‘第一章為導(dǎo)論,主要介紹了本文的研究背景、研究意義、主要研究方法以及主要創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)。 第二章為文獻(xiàn)綜述部分,主要針對全球匯率制度的演變、人民幣匯率的度量方法、人民幣匯率對出口的影響、人民幣匯率對進(jìn)口的影響等幾個方面進(jìn)行了全面的文獻(xiàn)分析,并進(jìn)行了簡單的總結(jié)。 第三章分析了匯改以來人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的變動情況。為了驗證我們選取人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率作為人民幣匯率代理指標(biāo)的合理性,我們進(jìn)一步分析了人民幣匯率和人民幣有效匯率的變動情況,并對三個指標(biāo)進(jìn)行了各方面的比較。為了認(rèn)清有些人認(rèn)為的人民幣匯率的低估是造成美國貿(mào)易逆差擴(kuò)大的原因,采用計量分析的方法對人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率和美國貿(mào)易逆差之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了檢驗。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的變動并不是造成美國對中國貿(mào)易逆差擴(kuò)大的原因。接著分析了學(xué)術(shù)界的熱點(diǎn)問題之一：馬歇爾勒納條件在中美貿(mào)易間的適用性問題進(jìn)行了重點(diǎn)的分析。選取了中美貿(mào)易收支差額、人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率、中國收入水平、美國收入水平四個變量,針對馬歇爾勒納條件的適用性進(jìn)行了檢驗。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),中美之間的貿(mào)易并不滿足馬歇爾勒納條件中進(jìn)出口商品需求彈性之和大于1的條件,這在一定程度上也可以解釋為什么人民幣升值7年多來中美之間的貿(mào)易順差并沒有降低的現(xiàn)象。 第四章采用全國層面上的省區(qū)面板數(shù)據(jù)實(shí)證分析了人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的變動對我國外貿(mào)發(fā)展的影響。選取了人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率、實(shí)際利用外資、資本投入、勞動力投入以及非市場化程度等變量作為解釋變量,借助廣義矩估計方法(GMM)分析了各變量對我國外貿(mào)總額、進(jìn)口額和出口額的影響。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對我國的出口、進(jìn)口的作用方向與傳統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟(jì)理論的結(jié)論一致,其中對出口的促進(jìn)作用(0.45)大于對進(jìn)口的阻礙作用(-0.03),正負(fù)抵消后從而導(dǎo)致人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對外貿(mào)總額產(chǎn)生了正向的促進(jìn)作用(0.34)。因此在樣本期間內(nèi),人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的升值對我國的外貿(mào)增長的長期影響是不利的,必須要在可控性、漸進(jìn)性的原則下進(jìn)行匯率制度的改革,并在改革過程中結(jié)合國內(nèi)外的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r進(jìn)行合理的調(diào)整,切不可因為進(jìn)行匯改而影響國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展良好勢頭。 為了進(jìn)一步認(rèn)清人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的變動對我國外貿(mào)發(fā)展的區(qū)域不平衡現(xiàn)象產(chǎn)生了怎樣的影響,在文章的第五章進(jìn)行了分區(qū)域的檢驗。按照行政區(qū)域的劃分樣本省市劃分為東中西部三個區(qū)域,分別檢驗了人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對外貿(mào)總額、出口和進(jìn)口的影響。結(jié)果表明,總體上來講,人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的變動不論是對東部地區(qū)、中部地區(qū)還是對于西部地區(qū)外貿(mào)發(fā)展的影響均符合傳統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟(jì)理論和金融理論的分析結(jié)果,即人民幣對外貶值,會降低中國出口產(chǎn)品的國際市場價格,從而增加我國的出口；另一方面又會增加進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品的國內(nèi)市場價格,從而使得進(jìn)口量減少。但是具體來說,人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對于東中西部外貿(mào)發(fā)展的作用大小存在一定的差別：(1)人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對外貿(mào)發(fā)展的影響分析結(jié)果顯示,人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率貶值1%,帶動中部地區(qū)和西部地區(qū)的外貿(mào)發(fā)展0.5418%和0.2055%,明顯大于東部地區(qū)的影響系數(shù)(0.1544)。(2)在出口貿(mào)易上,人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對于中部地區(qū)的出口貿(mào)易推動作用最大,為0.0460；其次為東部地區(qū)(0.0308)；人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對西部地區(qū)的促進(jìn)作用最小,為0.020。(3)人民幣匯率的變動對東部地區(qū)進(jìn)口貿(mào)易的阻礙作用最大,人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率每貶值1%,造成東部地區(qū)的進(jìn)口貿(mào)易減少0.6245%；其次為中部地區(qū)影響系數(shù)為-0.0758；人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對西部地區(qū)的阻礙作用最小,為-0.066。 加工貿(mào)易在我國外貿(mào)發(fā)展中起到了重要的作用,占據(jù)了我國外貿(mào)發(fā)展的半壁江山,近年來推動加工貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)型升級成為我國上至政府部門下至企業(yè)的重要任務(wù)。為了認(rèn)清人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對我國外貿(mào)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變的影響,在本文的第六章分析了人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的變動對我國加工貿(mào)易發(fā)展的影響。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),不論是在長期還是短期人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率都是影響我國加工貿(mào)易發(fā)展的重要原因。(1)利用Johansen協(xié)整檢驗方法得到的結(jié)果表明,從長期來看,人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率和加工貿(mào)易發(fā)展變量之間存在負(fù)相關(guān)的關(guān)系。人民幣匯率幣值每增長(貶值)1%,我國的加工貿(mào)易額增速降低0.36415%。(2)誤差修正模型的檢驗結(jié)果表明,上年的人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率、技術(shù)進(jìn)步、利用外資和對外開放度等變量的非均衡誤差以0.5293%的速度對本年度的加工貿(mào)易額做出修正。(3)最后,利用脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方法分解方法對各個變量對加工貿(mào)易的影響進(jìn)行了分解。分解結(jié)果表明人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的變化是導(dǎo)致加工貿(mào)易額變化的主導(dǎo)因素,而代表開放水平的對外開放度對加工貿(mào)易的影響相對較小。說明金融全球化和資本的跨國流動對我國的加工貿(mào)易的影響更為深遠(yuǎn)。人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的變動對我國加工貿(mào)易產(chǎn)生的阻礙作用更大,這一結(jié)論致使我們思考,是否我國的勞動力比較優(yōu)勢已經(jīng)喪失,從而導(dǎo)致人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的變動對勞動密集型產(chǎn)品出口為主的加工貿(mào)易的阻礙作用更為明顯?我國的人口紅利時期是否已經(jīng)結(jié)束,“劉易斯拐點(diǎn)”是否已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)?我們借助于劉易斯模型分析計算了我國農(nóng)業(yè)部門和工業(yè)部門的邊際勞動生產(chǎn)率,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)我國已經(jīng)在2003年跨過了“劉易斯第一拐點(diǎn)”并且可能將在2022年跨過“劉易斯第二拐點(diǎn)”,我國已經(jīng)從勞動力無限剩余進(jìn)入了有限供給階段,勞動力比較有優(yōu)勢正在慢慢消逝。 第七章為本文的研究結(jié)論和政策建議部分。
[Abstract]:China rapid economic growth during the past 30 years, foreign trade plays important role. But because of Chinese of major trading partners have remained surplus and surplus increased year by year, the trade partners is quite critical, generally considered the RMB exchange rate undervalued. Under pressure from all sides and China economic sustainable development, in accordance with the initiative started in July 2005, controllability and gradual progress of the principle of the reform of exchange rate system, implement based on market supply and demand, the floating exchange rate system with reference to a basket of currencies. By February 2012 the RMB exchange rate against the dollar by 8.0702 rise to 6.308, the cumulative appreciation of RMB appreciation of the impact of the 20.99%. series, the volume of export in most areas of reduced exports the decline in corporate profits, facing the survival dilemma; reduce the trade surplus, even deficit since 2012. On the other hand, people The appreciation of the national currency also reduced the import cost of Chinese enterprises, and undoubtedly had a positive effect on the import enterprises of our country.
The exchange rate as a country participating in international economic activity important comprehensive index, it will change to a country's balance of trade, economic growth and industrial development will produce the important influence. From the perspective of the development history of RMB, whether in the Southeast Asian crisis in the devaluation of the dispute, or the revaluation of the renminbi. The pressure, the focus of attention has focused on the relationship between RMB and foreign trade. So the analysis of the relationship between RMB exchange rate and foreign trade Chinese, not only related to the healthy and stable development of foreign trade Chinese and RMB exchange rate system reform, and in relation to our country the overall situation of reform and opening up, the relationship between Chinese and trade partners trade the relationship, which has important theoretical and practical significance to study the relationship between RMB exchange rate and China's foreign trade.
The research methods about the relationship between exchange rate and trade the main time lag effect analysis, monetary analysis, absorption analysis and elastic analysis method, has formed a systematic theoretical system. Among them, especially the elastic analysis of the Marshall - Lerner condition, discusses the very stringent. Currency analysis, mainly from the absorption analysis the macro level analysis method; analysis of time delay effect, elastic analysis are microcosmic analysis, but they are for the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance are highly abstract, there are strict premises, such as the assumption of elastic analysis method is equivalent to the actual exchange rate of import and export price changes, delay analysis of the effect of assumption method is the import and export pricing currency proportion is different. The purpose of this study is to establish a theoretical system, but in reality Specific analysis of the phenomenon, from the development of the RMB real effective exchange rate of China foreign trade this perspective focuses on the way to study the mechanism and the role of international trade and the influence of RMB exchange rate, in order to provide useful suggestions and opinions on the current exchange rate system reform.
This paper mainly in the empirical analysis, not only impact on the national level of exchange rate on trade is analyzed. At the same time in order to distinguish differences between regions, but also the regional analysis. In addition, in order to make the effect of exchange rate changes on China's trade development have more specific understanding of the further analysis of the impact of RMB real effective exchange rate on the development of China's processing trade.
This article is divided into seven chapters.
The first chapter is an introduction, which mainly introduces the background of the research, the significance of the research, the main research methods and the main innovation points.
The second chapter is the literature review. It mainly analyzes the evolution of the global exchange rate system, the measurement method of RMB exchange rate, the impact of RMB exchange rate on exports, and the impact of RMB exchange rate on imports, and makes a comprehensive summary of the literature.
The third chapter analyzes the changes of real effective exchange rate of RMB exchange rate reform. In order to verify our selection of RMB real effective exchange rate of RMB exchange rate as a proxy indicator of rationality, we further analyze the RMB exchange rate and RMB exchange rate changes, and three indicators were compared in various aspects. In order to understand some people underestimate the RMB exchange rate that is the cause of the US trade deficit to expand, by the way of quantitative analysis on the relationship between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the U.S. trade deficit was tested. The results showed that the RMB real effective exchange rate is not the cause of the United States to expand the trade deficit of Chinese. Then analyzes one of the hot issues in academic circles: Marshall Lerner condition is the focus of the analysis on the applicability of the Sino US trade between the selected in. The United States trade balance, the real effective exchange rate of RMB, Chinese income level, the income level of the four variables, the applicability for the Marshall Lerner condition were tested. The results showed that the trade between the two countries does not meet the Marshall Lerner condition of import and export commodities in the elasticity of demand is greater than the sum of 1 terms, this can also explain why the yuan between the appreciation of more than 7 years of Sino US trade surplus does not reduce the phenomenon to a certain extent.
The fourth chapter uses the empirical provincial panel data on the national level analysis of the impact of the RMB real effective exchange rate on China's foreign trade development. The real effective exchange rate of RMB, the actual use of foreign capital, capital investment, labor input and non market level variables as explanatory variables, using generalized method of moments (GMM) analysis the variables on China's total foreign trade, affecting imports and exports. The results show that exports of RMB exchange rate on China's import, direction and the role of the traditional economic theory is consistent, which promotes the export (0.45) is greater than the effects on imports (-0.03), after which offset lead to the real effective exchange rate of RMB has a positive effect on foreign trade (0.34). Therefore in the sample period, the real effective exchange rate of RMB appreciation of foreign trade of our country Long term effects of growth is negative, we must in the controllability of the exchange rate system reform in the progressive principle, and make reasonable adjustment with economic development situation at home and abroad in the process of reform, must not because of the reform and the impact of domestic economic development good momentum.
In order to further understand the RMB real effective exchange rate on China's foreign trade development of the regional imbalance of the impact, the test area in the fifth chapter. According to the division of the administrative division of the sample provinces for East and West three regions, respectively, to test the real effective exchange rate of RMB on foreign trade, influence export and import. The results show that, generally speaking, the RMB real effective exchange rate for the eastern region, central region and influence for the foreign trade development in the western region are in line with the results of the analysis of traditional economic theory and financial theory, namely the depreciation of RMB, will reduce the China export price in the international market, so as to increase my China's exports; on the other hand will increase the price of imported products on the domestic market, thus reduced imports. But specifically, people The RMB real effective exchange rate for a certain difference between eastern and western development of foreign trade size: (1) the impact of RMB real effective exchange rate on the foreign trade development analysis shows that the real effective exchange rate of RMB devaluation of 1%, driven by the central region and the western region of the development of foreign trade in 0.5418% and 0.2055%, significantly higher than the eastern region (0.1544 influence coefficient). (2) in the export trade, the RMB real effective exchange rate for the central region of the export trade promotion, 0.0460; followed by the eastern region (0.0308); the real effective exchange rate of RMB to the smallest improvement in the western region, 0.020. (3) inhibited the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate on import trade in eastern region the largest, the real effective exchange rate of RMB devaluation of 1% each, resulting in the eastern region of the import trade decreased by 0.6245%; followed by the central region influence coefficient of -0.0758 people; The actual effective exchange rate of the people's currency has the smallest impediment to the western region, which is -0.066.
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