本文關鍵詞： 人民幣國際化 香港 離岸金融市場 貨幣供求 市場均衡　出處：《復旦大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：近年來,香港人民幣離岸市場發(fā)展勢頭迅猛。香港離岸人民幣存款額不斷增加,香港人民幣跨境貿易結算額逐年上升,香港離岸市場上的人民幣金融產(chǎn)品也日益豐富。香港已形成離岸市場中最大的人民幣資金池,成為全球離岸人民幣業(yè)務樞紐。香港人民幣離岸市場的發(fā)展對人民幣國際化具有重要意義。我們可以把香港人民幣離岸市場理解為人民幣國際化的試驗田,一個研發(fā)人民幣自由化后市場產(chǎn)品的溫室,或者是人民幣國際化的雛形。香港人民幣離岸市場可以為跨境貿易人民幣結算提供資本市場平臺,形成市場化的人民幣利率和匯率指標,同時可以為內地金融市場的發(fā)展提供值得借鑒的經(jīng)驗。通過該市場,還可以觀察人民幣國際化當中可能會出現(xiàn)的問題,可以采取的應對措施,從中取得經(jīng)驗,穩(wěn)步推進。另外,目前,上海正在大力推進中國(上海)自由貿易試驗區(qū)建設,其中重要的一部分就是要在區(qū)內發(fā)展離岸金融。但是上海在這方面沒有經(jīng)驗,需要有所借鑒,需要摸著石頭過河。香港在離岸金融方面是一個先行者,香港發(fā)展人民幣離岸市場的經(jīng)驗,對上海發(fā)展離岸金融會有很強的借鑒作用。香港人民幣離岸市場的發(fā)展可以大致分為三個階段,2008年底之前可以稱為是準備階段,在這一階段離岸市場主要以個人業(yè)務和債券業(yè)務為主；從2009年初到2011年中可以稱為是形成階段,在這一階段離岸人民幣產(chǎn)品體系基本建立；從2011年8月到現(xiàn)在可以稱為全面建設階段,在這一階段離岸人民幣回流渠道不斷擴寬,投資途徑不斷增多。香港人民幣離岸市場主要由香港離岸人民幣貨幣市場、香港離岸人民幣證券市場、香港離岸人民幣外匯市場、香港離岸人民幣保險市場等組成。隨著香港人民幣離岸市場的不斷發(fā)展壯大,香港離岸人民幣的回流渠道也日益拓展,目前的回流渠道包括貿易結算、境外金融機構投資內地銀行間市場、人民幣FDI投資、發(fā)行人民幣債券、RQFⅡ、游客攜帶入境等。在現(xiàn)階段,內地進口商在香港的人民幣跨境貿易結算是人民幣流入香港的主要渠道。香港離岸人民幣新增存量決定于內地進口商匯入的人民幣和內地出口商轉走的人民幣之間的差額,總的貨幣存量決定于這一差額的歷史積累。香港人民幣離岸市場最大的需求是希望從人民幣升值預期中獲利的投機需求。香港人民幣離岸市場均衡的過程就是離岸人民幣貨幣供求的雙方達成平衡的過程。在此過程中,在岸和離岸人民幣對美元匯率的價差和人民幣升(貶)值預期是關鍵的驅動力量。關于香港離岸人民幣存款的實證研究顯示,在岸和離岸人民幣對美元的匯率價差是香港人民幣離岸存款變動的格蘭杰原因,香港跨境貿易人民幣結算是香港離岸人民幣的重要來源,人民幣升(貶)值情況對香港離岸人民幣存款量有重要影響。香港人民幣離岸市場的迅猛發(fā)展也帶來了一些現(xiàn)實和潛在風險。現(xiàn)實風險方面,香港人民幣離岸市場的發(fā)展可能加劇“熱錢”的跨境流動,可能對內地金融業(yè)形成一定的沖擊,還有可能助長洗錢活動。潛在風險方面,香港人民幣離岸市場的發(fā)展可能導致我國凈國際投資頭寸惡化,可能影響我國貨幣政策的有效性,也可能降低央行貨幣政策的獨立性。這些風險應該引起充分重視,并應及早應對。應對措施包括推進跨境貿易人民幣結算結構合理化、進一步放寬人民幣回流渠道、加強香港與內地的反洗錢合作和及早研究香港金融體系改革等。
[Abstract]:In recent years, Hongkong's offshore RMB market. The momentum of rapid development of offshore renminbi deposits in Hongkong have increased, Hongkong cross-border RMB trade settlement amount increased year by year, the offshore market in Hongkong on the RMB financial products are increasingly rich. Hongkong has formed the largest pool of offshore RMB funds in the market, become the global offshore RMB business hub. The development of the offshore renminbi market in Hongkong is of great significance to the internationalization of RMB. We can take the test field for the internationalization of the RMB offshore renminbi market in Hongkong, a R & D yuan free products in the market after the greenhouse, or is the internationalization of the RMB prototype. The offshore renminbi market in Hongkong can provide capital market platform for cross-border RMB trade settlement, the formation of the market and the RMB interest rate the exchange rate index, and can provide value for the development of the mainland financial market Learn from the experience. Through the market, but also can observe the RMB internationalization there may be problems, measures can be taken, the experience gained from steadily. In addition, at present, Shanghai is vigorously promoting the construction of China (Shanghai) free trade zone, one of the most important part is to develop offshore finance in the region in Shanghai in this regard. But no need to learn from experience, need to cross the river by feeling the stones. Hongkong is a pioneer in the offshore financial sector, Hongkong RMB offshore market development experience, has a strong reference to the development of Shanghai offshore financial development. The offshore renminbi market in Hongkong can be divided into three stages. By the end of 2008 is referred to as the preparation stage, at this stage the offshore market mainly in the personal business and bond business; from the beginning of 2009 to 2011 can be said to be shaped A stage, at this stage the basic establishment of offshore RMB products system; from August 2011 to the present can be called the comprehensive construction stage, at this stage the offshore renminbi return channels continue to widen the investment channels, increasing. The offshore renminbi market in Hongkong is mainly composed of Hongkong offshore renminbi offshore renminbi currency market, Hongkong stock market, Hongkong's offshore RMB exchange market Hongkong offshore RMB market, insurance and so on. With the continuous development of Hongkong's offshore RMB market, Hongkong offshore renminbi return channels are also increasingly expanding, the return channel including trade settlement, foreign financial institutions to invest in the mainland interbank market, RMB FDI investment, the issuance of RMB bonds, RQF II, etc. in the inbound tourists to carry at present, the mainland importers in Hongkong RMB cross-border trade settlement is the main channel of RMB into Hongkong . the difference between Hongkong's offshore RMB new stock depends on the mainland importers import RMB and the mainland exporters turn away the yuan, the total stock of money depends on the difference of the accumulation of history. Hongkong offshore RMB market demand is the biggest hope value of speculative demand profit expected from RMB Offshore RMB market equilibrium process in Hongkong. The two sides is the offshore renminbi currency demand and supply balance. In this process, the onshore and offshore renminbi to us dollar exchange rate spreads and RMB appreciation (depreciation) value is expected to be a key driving force. An Empirical Study on Hongkong offshore RMB deposits, onshore and offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar exchange rate spreads is Grainger Hongkong offshore RMB deposits in Hongkong, the cross-border RMB trade settlement is an important source of Hongkong offshore renminbi, people L currency (depreciation) value has important influence on Hongkong's offshore RMB deposits. The rapid development of Hongkong's offshore RMB market has also brought some realistic and potential risks. The real risk, the development of Hongkong's offshore RMB market may aggravate the cross-border flow of hot money, may have a certain impact on the financial industry on the mainland, there may be contributing to money laundering activities. Potential risk, the development of Hongkong's offshore RMB market could lead to China's net international investment position deteriorated, may affect the effectiveness of China's monetary policy, and may also reduce the independence of the central bank's monetary policy. These risks should be paid attention, and should respond as soon as possible. The measures include promoting cross-border RMB trade the settlement structure, further relaxation of the RMB back channels, and early research of Hongkong's financial system to strengthen Anti Money Laundering Cooperation between Hongkong and the mainland Leather and so on.

【學位授予單位】：復旦大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.6

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