本文關鍵詞： 貨幣政策 國際資本流動 外匯儲備 外匯占款　出處：《天津財經大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：進入20世紀90年代以來,我國國際資本流動的規(guī)模迅速擴大,已經達到了空前的水平。另一方面,我國的貨幣政策已由2008年為了應對全球型的金融危機而實行的適度寬松政策調整到了穩(wěn)健,然而回歸常態(tài)化的貨幣政策效果卻低于預期,這與同時期國際資本流動的異動分不開,規(guī)模龐大的國際資本流動對我國貨幣政策的實施效果產生重要影響。 在此背景下,定性定量地分析國際資本的流動對我國當前穩(wěn)健的貨幣政策效果影響就顯得尤為重要。首先,文章借鑒實際經驗及實證結果表明,匯率變化預期、實體資產價值、證券市場收益及中國對外開放程度是影響我國國際資本流動的重要影響因素。其次,文章通過貨幣供給模型進行定性分析發(fā)現,無論國際資本流入或是流出都將對我國貨幣政策產生影響,進一步利用改進的蒙代爾-弗萊明理論模型進行分析可以得到資本流動削弱貨幣政策效果的結論。在此基礎上,文章借助VAR模型分析影響程度,結果表明外匯占款對貨幣供應量的影響主要體現在短期內,但依然是重要的影響因素。 然而,隨著我國匯率升值預期的回落、房地產市場的低迷與股市的不振,我國國際資本流入明顯放緩,再加上意愿結售匯的實施,我國面對的國際資本流動存在更大的不確定性。因此,為了填補外匯占款被動發(fā)放貨幣的主要貨幣供給渠道的空白,我國采取了逆回購的更具靈活性的公開市場操作手段,以降低國際資本流動的不確定性對我國貨幣政策實施效果帶來的影響。雖然外匯占款絕對數的減少降低了國際資本流動對貨幣政策效果的影響,但并不意味著外匯占款對貨幣政策影響路徑的消失,國際資本異動依然威脅著我國貨幣政策的有效性�；诖�,我國可以考慮從增加人民幣匯率的彈性、規(guī)范外資對我國房市及股市的準入,同時加強資本流動的監(jiān)控和管理這三個方面著手,以減少資本流動對我國貨幣政策獨立性的影響,達到更好的貨幣政策的預期效果。
[Abstract]:Since 1990s, the scale of China's international capital flows has expanded rapidly and has reached an unprecedented level. On the other hand, The monetary policy of our country has been adjusted from the moderate easing policy in 2008 to steady in response to the global financial crisis, but the effect of returning to the norm is lower than expected. This cannot be separated from the change of international capital flow in the same period. The large scale of international capital flow has an important influence on the implementation effect of monetary policy in China. In this context, qualitative and quantitative analysis of the impact of international capital flows on the effectiveness of China's current prudent monetary policy is particularly important. Firstly, the article draws lessons from practical experience and empirical results show that exchange rate changes are expected. The value of real assets, the income of securities market and the degree of China's opening to the outside world are the important factors that affect the international capital flow of our country. Both international capital inflows and outflows will have an impact on China's monetary policy. Further analysis with the improved Mondal-Fleming theory model can lead to the conclusion that capital flows weaken the effectiveness of monetary policy. Based on the VAR model, the results show that the influence of foreign exchange on money supply is mainly reflected in the short term, but it is still an important factor. However, with the decline of the expectation of exchange rate appreciation in China, the downturn in the real estate market and the depression of the stock market, the inflow of international capital in China has slowed markedly, and the implementation of the willingness to settle and sell foreign exchange has also been added. Therefore, in order to fill the gap in the main money supply channels in which foreign exchange accounts passively issue money, China has adopted a more flexible open market operation method of reverse repurchase. In order to reduce the uncertainty of international capital flows on the effect of monetary policy implementation in China. Although the reduction in the absolute number of foreign exchange accounts has reduced the impact of international capital flows on the effect of monetary policy, However, it does not mean that the influence of foreign exchange on monetary policy will disappear, and that international capital movements will still threaten the effectiveness of China's monetary policy. Based on this, China may consider increasing the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate. In order to reduce the influence of capital flow on the independence of monetary policy and achieve the expected effect of monetary policy, we should standardize the entry of foreign capital to China's housing market and stock market, and strengthen the supervision and management of capital flow in order to reduce the impact of capital flow on the independence of monetary policy in China.
【學位授予單位】：天津財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F831.7;F822.0

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