本文關(guān)鍵詞：經(jīng)濟(jì)周期與最優(yōu)貨幣政策規(guī)則研究　出處：《武漢理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 通貨膨脹 貨幣政策規(guī)則 產(chǎn)出 利率 經(jīng)濟(jì)周期

【摘要】：為了穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)的波動(dòng),政策制定者應(yīng)該做什么?本文探討了政策制定者經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)的環(huán)境中應(yīng)該扮演什么樣的角色。我們假定政策制定的原則是用利率規(guī)則穩(wěn)定通脹和產(chǎn)出水平。強(qiáng)調(diào)產(chǎn)出穩(wěn)定是要降低產(chǎn)出的波動(dòng)性,而強(qiáng)調(diào)通脹的穩(wěn)定就是要降低通脹的波動(dòng)性。本文將一個(gè)廣為人知的總供給模型和政策規(guī)則結(jié)合起來(lái)政策目標(biāo)之間可能的替代關(guān)系。更一般地本章還探討了不同的目標(biāo)組合怎樣影響了經(jīng)濟(jì)周期中的隨機(jī)行為。 接著本文考慮了加入收入分配的目標(biāo)之后對(duì)之前的通貨膨脹和產(chǎn)出目標(biāo)的影響。本文從不同收入群體及央行之間的動(dòng)態(tài)博弈過(guò)程著手研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)通脹會(huì)隨著時(shí)間的推移不斷增加,但是最終會(huì)趨于一個(gè)穩(wěn)定的通脹率。而擁有多重目標(biāo)的央行短期最優(yōu)通貨膨脹率會(huì)更低一些。從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,在治理通脹的時(shí)候不僅要考慮政策的動(dòng)態(tài)一致性,也可以考慮通脹對(duì)不同收入群體的沖擊的差異性,因?yàn)榭紤]收入分配的目標(biāo)之后可以降低通脹水平。 然后本文為了實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)貨幣政策對(duì)我國(guó)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的效應(yīng),找出最優(yōu)貨幣政策規(guī)則的一些經(jīng)驗(yàn)證據(jù),采用誤差修正模型和脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)分析我國(guó)的股市回報(bào),產(chǎn)出,宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策,通脹等變量之間的關(guān)系。發(fā)現(xiàn)了貨幣供給和股市回報(bào)之間的負(fù)相關(guān),及貨幣供給和產(chǎn)出增長(zhǎng)之間的正相關(guān),而股市回報(bào)率和產(chǎn)出增長(zhǎng)都對(duì)通脹產(chǎn)生影響。因此在執(zhí)行貨幣政策的過(guò)程中應(yīng)考慮到由我國(guó)具體國(guó)情所產(chǎn)生的這些效應(yīng) 最后第六章給出了本文的結(jié)論和政策建議
[Abstract]:What should policymakers do to stabilize economic volatility? This paper discusses the role that policy makers should play in an environment of economic cycle fluctuations. We assume that the principle of policy formulation is to stabilize inflation and output by using interest rate rules. The emphasis on output stability is to reduce output. Volatility. The emphasis on inflation stability is to reduce inflation volatility. This paper combines a well-known aggregate supply model with policy rules as a possible alternative relationship between policy objectives. More generally, this chapter also discusses the differences. How the combination of objectives affects random behavior in the business cycle. Then this paper considers the effect of the target of income distribution on the inflation and output targets before. This paper starts with the dynamic game process between different income groups and central banks. It is found that inflation will increase over time, but will eventually tend to a stable rate. The short-term optimal inflation rate of central banks with multiple targets will be lower. In the long run. In dealing with inflation, we should consider not only the dynamic consistency of policy, but also the difference of the impact of inflation on different income groups, because considering the target of income distribution can reduce the inflation level. Then in order to empirically test the effect of monetary policy on the real economy of our country, this paper finds out some empirical evidence of the optimal monetary policy rules. The error correction model and impulse response function are used to analyze the relationship among the variables of stock market return, output, macroeconomic policy, inflation and so on. The negative correlation between money supply and stock market return is found. And the positive correlation between money supply and output growth, while both stock market returns and output growth have an impact on inflation. Therefore, these effects should be taken into account in the implementation of monetary policy. Chapter 6th gives the conclusions and policy recommendations of this paper.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0

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