本文關(guān)鍵詞：金融發(fā)展對中國出口增長二元邊際的影響　出處：《南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 中國 出口增長 二元邊際 金融發(fā)展 分位數(shù)回歸

【摘要】：20世紀(jì)90年代以來，中國出口保持高速增長的態(tài)勢，，到2009年中國已成為世界第一大出口國。但是近幾年，隨著人民幣升值的加速，勞動力與原材料價(jià)格不斷上升，我國出口的傳統(tǒng)優(yōu)勢開始減弱，再加上2008年金融危機(jī)引發(fā)的外部需求萎縮，這些因素共同導(dǎo)致出口增速開始放緩，我國的出口貿(mào)易正面臨著嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)。因此采取何種措施進(jìn)一步促進(jìn)我國的出口增長，成為當(dāng)前我們所要研究的重要課題。理論和經(jīng)驗(yàn)研究證明，金融發(fā)展可以成為一國貿(mào)易比較優(yōu)勢的重要來源，健全的金融體系可以提高企業(yè)的出口量與出口傾向。目前大多數(shù)學(xué)者都是從貿(mào)易增長的規(guī)模與結(jié)構(gòu)的視角來分析金融發(fā)展與出口貿(mào)易的關(guān)系，很少有學(xué)者從貿(mào)易增長二元邊際的視角解釋兩者之間的關(guān)系。 在理論研究方面，本文對貿(mào)易二元邊際以及金融發(fā)展影響貿(mào)易二元邊際的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行述評；其次在Chaney(2005)所建立的異質(zhì)性貿(mào)易理論的基礎(chǔ)上闡述了金融發(fā)展對貿(mào)易二元邊際的影響機(jī)制：金融發(fā)展一方面可以幫助企業(yè)克服出口的固定成本形成的資金約束，降低企業(yè)出口的生產(chǎn)率門檻,從而有利于擴(kuò)展邊際的上升，另一方面能夠促進(jìn)企業(yè)創(chuàng)新，帶動企業(yè)生產(chǎn)率的提高，從而有利于集約邊際的上升。 在實(shí)證研究方面，本文利用2000-2009年HS6位數(shù)微觀貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)，并借鑒Hummels和Klenow(2005)的分解方法，計(jì)算出中國對18個(gè)主要貿(mào)易伙伴國以及不同類型產(chǎn)品出口增長的二元邊際，發(fā)現(xiàn)無論是國家層面還是產(chǎn)品類型層面中國的出口擴(kuò)張主要是依靠集約邊際實(shí)現(xiàn)的。在此基礎(chǔ)上，本文構(gòu)建金融發(fā)展的規(guī)模、效率與結(jié)構(gòu)三個(gè)指標(biāo)，通過面板模型的常規(guī)方法與分位數(shù)回歸方法實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)金融發(fā)展、進(jìn)出口國市場規(guī)模、貿(mào)易成本、生產(chǎn)率、多邊阻力、外商直接投資以及外部沖擊等因素對我國出口增長二元邊際的影響。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)：金融發(fā)展對二元邊際有著明顯的帶動作用，金融發(fā)展對集約邊際的影響要遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)大于其對擴(kuò)展邊際的影響；隨著二元邊際的分布由低到高，金融發(fā)展對擴(kuò)展邊際的影響呈現(xiàn)先降后升趨勢而對集約邊際的影響則呈現(xiàn)出遞減的趨勢；其他影響因素也對二元邊際表現(xiàn)出不同的影響機(jī)制，特別是勞動生產(chǎn)率對二元邊際的影響呈現(xiàn)出“倒U形”的特征。 最后，在前文研究結(jié)論的基礎(chǔ)上提出針對性的政策建議，這為如何穩(wěn)定我國的出口增長，提升我國的貿(mào)易競爭力提供了重要的參考。
[Abstract]:Since 1990s, China's exports have maintained a rapid growth trend. By 2009, China has become the world's largest exporter, but in recent years, with the acceleration of RMB appreciation. The rising prices of labor and raw materials, the weakening of the traditional advantages of China's exports, and the contraction of external demand caused by the financial crisis in 2008, together with these factors, led to the slowdown of export growth. China's export trade is facing severe challenges. Therefore, what measures should be taken to further promote the export growth of our country has become an important subject that we should study at present. Financial development can become an important source of a country's comparative advantage in trade. A sound financial system can improve the export volume and export tendency of enterprises. At present, most scholars analyze the relationship between financial development and export trade from the perspective of scale and structure of trade growth. Few scholars explain the relationship from the perspective of dual marginal trade growth. In the theoretical research, this paper reviews the dual marginal of trade and the related literature that the financial development affects the dualistic margin of trade. Second in Chaneyt 2005). On the basis of the heterogeneity trade theory, this paper expounds the influence mechanism of financial development on the dual marginal of trade: on the one hand, financial development can help enterprises overcome the financial constraints formed by the fixed cost of export. Lowering the threshold of enterprise's export productivity is beneficial to the increase of the margin of expansion, on the other hand, it can promote the innovation of the enterprise, promote the increase of the productivity of the enterprise, and thus benefit the rise of the intensive margin. In the empirical research, this paper uses the HS6 data from 2000 to 2009, and draws lessons from the decomposition method of Hummels and Klenowan 2005). The binary margin of growth in China's exports to the 18 major trading partners and to different types of products has been calculated. It is found that China's export expansion mainly depends on the intensive marginal level, whether at the national level or at the product type level. On this basis, this paper constructs three indicators of financial development: scale, efficiency and structure. Through the panel model of conventional methods and quantile regression method empirical test of financial development, import and export country market size, trade costs, productivity, multilateral resistance. The influence of foreign direct investment and external shocks on the dual marginal value of China's export growth. The influence of financial development on intensive margin is far greater than that on expansion margin; With the distribution of dualistic margin from low to high, the influence of financial development on the expansion margin is descending first and then rising, while the influence on the intensive marginal shows a decreasing trend. Other influencing factors also show different influence mechanisms on dualistic margin, especially the influence of labor productivity on dualistic marginal is "inverted U-shaped". Finally, on the basis of the previous research conclusions, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions, which provides an important reference for how to stabilize China's export growth and enhance China's trade competitiveness.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.1;F752.62

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