本文關(guān)鍵詞：帶多個跳躍因子GARCH模型對中國股市捕捉能力研究　出處：《南京財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： GARCH-JUMP HongLi 多個跳躍因子 VaR

【摘要】：金融風(fēng)險的主要來源是金融資產(chǎn)價格的波動，即金融資產(chǎn)收益率的不確定性，而有關(guān)金融資產(chǎn)的波動性研究則一直是國內(nèi)外學(xué)者研究金融風(fēng)險問題的重點。近年來，受新一輪國際金融危機的影響，金融風(fēng)險變得越來越復(fù)雜，這便推動國內(nèi)外學(xué)者提出更優(yōu)秀的模型來完美刻畫實際金融市場價格波動的動態(tài)變化趨勢�；诖�，文章結(jié)合國內(nèi)外金融時間序列的最新成果，提出一種新型的時間序列模型來捕捉中國股票市場的收益率與波動率變化特征。 本文將雙指數(shù)跳躍因子引入傳統(tǒng)的GARCH族模型，從而利用雙指數(shù)跳躍因子來擬合中國股票市場收益率序列呈現(xiàn)的非對稱性和波動杠桿效應(yīng)等特征，實證結(jié)果顯示，引入雙指數(shù)跳躍因子的GARCH模型與一般GARCH-JUMP模型相比，能夠更好的擬合中國股票市場收益率與波動率的動態(tài)變化過程，此外模型的HongLi檢驗結(jié)果也表明前者的模型設(shè)定更準確。但是，HongLi檢驗結(jié)果表明帶雙指數(shù)跳躍因子的GARCH模型仍然沒有通過檢驗，所以我們在新模型的基礎(chǔ)上引入方差跳躍因子，從而提出帶多個跳躍因子GARCH模型。實證結(jié)果表明，新模型能夠更好的擬合中國股票市場收益率與波動率變化過程中存在的尖峰厚尾性、波動聚集性、波動的杠桿效應(yīng)以及非對稱性等特征；模型的HongLi檢驗結(jié)果也表明帶多個跳躍因子GARCH模型要比帶雙指數(shù)跳躍因子GARCH模型更準確，能夠更好的刻畫中國股票市場收益率與波動率的動態(tài)變化趨勢。 本文還基于兩類新的模型對中國股市作了VaR風(fēng)險度量分析，結(jié)果顯示帶多個跳躍因子的GARCH模型預(yù)測的VaR值的準確性要高于帶雙指數(shù)跳躍因子GARCH模型的預(yù)測結(jié)果，前者的失敗率更接近于我們選取的置信水平所對應(yīng)的失敗率，更能夠準確的反映兩類綜合指數(shù)的風(fēng)險情況。我們認為雙指數(shù)跳躍因子GARCH模型預(yù)測VaR沒有通過檢驗的原因可能是其一定程度上高估了風(fēng)險，從而導(dǎo)致其預(yù)測VaR的預(yù)測區(qū)間更廣，，預(yù)測誤差更大，進而一定程度上減少了預(yù)測的失敗率。
[Abstract]:The main source of financial risk is the fluctuation of financial asset price, that is, the uncertainty of financial asset yield. The volatility of financial assets has been the focus of domestic and foreign scholars on financial risk. In recent years, due to the impact of a new round of international financial crisis, financial risk has become more and more complex. This prompted scholars at home and abroad to put forward a better model to describe the dynamic trends of the real financial market price volatility. Based on this, the article combines the latest results of domestic and foreign financial time series. A new time series model is proposed to capture the characteristics of volatility and yield in Chinese stock market. In this paper, the double index jump factor is introduced into the traditional GARCH family model, and the double index jump factor is used to fit the characteristics of asymmetric and volatility leverage effect in the return series of Chinese stock market. The empirical results show that the GARCH model with double index jump factor can better fit the dynamic process of the return and volatility of Chinese stock market compared with the general GARCH-JUMP model. In addition, the HongLi test results of the model also show that the model setting of the former is more accurate, but the results of the HongLi test show that the GARCH model with double exponential jump factor has not passed the test. So we introduce the variance jump factor on the basis of the new model, and then we put forward the GARCH model with multiple jump factors. The empirical results show that. The new model can better fit the characteristics of the Chinese stock market in the process of the change of return and volatility, such as peak and thick tail, volatility aggregation, the leverage effect of volatility and asymmetry. The results of HongLi test also show that the GARCH model with multiple jump factors is more accurate than the GARCH model with double exponential jump factors. It can better depict the dynamic trend of the return and volatility in Chinese stock market. This paper also makes the VaR risk measurement analysis of Chinese stock market based on two new models. The results show that the accuracy of VaR predicted by GARCH model with multiple jump factors is higher than that of GARCH model with double exponential jump factors. The failure rate of the former is closer to the failure rate corresponding to the confidence level we selected. We think that the double index jump factor GARCH model can not pass the test of VaR may be because it overestimates the risk to a certain extent. Therefore, the prediction range of VaR is wider, the prediction error is larger, and the failure rate of prediction is reduced to a certain extent.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.51;F224

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