本文關(guān)鍵詞：國(guó)際短期資本流動(dòng)與我國(guó)官方外匯儲(chǔ)備變化關(guān)系　出處：《南京大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 國(guó)際短期資本流動(dòng) 官方外匯儲(chǔ)備 金融危機(jī)

【摘要】：國(guó)際短期資本流動(dòng)在金融全球化的背景下,成為不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的趨勢(shì)。近年來(lái)它在各國(guó)金融危機(jī)中的作用受到學(xué)者們廣泛關(guān)注,在不同的金融危機(jī)形成機(jī)制下,國(guó)際短期資本大量外逃給投資國(guó)造成的短期和長(zhǎng)期影響是不同的。當(dāng)一國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力較弱,國(guó)際短期資本外逃導(dǎo)致的羊群效應(yīng)使得該國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)較為緩慢；當(dāng)一國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力較強(qiáng),國(guó)際短期資本外逃對(duì)投資國(guó)的沖擊力是有限的,經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目大額順差的恢復(fù)會(huì)較快扭轉(zhuǎn)看空該國(guó)的局面。 在二十世紀(jì)九十年代發(fā)生的幾次金融危機(jī)中,國(guó)際短期資本大量外逃都給這些國(guó)家的官方外匯儲(chǔ)備造成損失。由于沒(méi)有足夠的官方外匯儲(chǔ)備能夠應(yīng)對(duì)資本外逃,這些國(guó)家甚至為此而放棄固定匯率制度。此后,在世界范圍內(nèi)各個(gè)新興市場(chǎng)和發(fā)展中國(guó)家不斷增持本國(guó)的官方外匯儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模,全球官方外匯儲(chǔ)備處于高增長(zhǎng)的態(tài)勢(shì)。1995年全球官方外匯儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模為13895.87億美元,而截止到2012年底,全球官方外匯儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模為109363.23億美元,增長(zhǎng)了6.87倍。尤其是2002-2007年,平均年增長(zhǎng)率達(dá)到了21.92%。在高額的全球官方外匯儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模中,三分之二來(lái)自新興市場(chǎng)和發(fā)展中國(guó)家。 影響官方外匯儲(chǔ)備的需求因素主要為進(jìn)口規(guī)模、外商直接投資規(guī)模和外債余額。雖然國(guó)際短期資本流動(dòng)不是影響一國(guó)官方外匯儲(chǔ)備的主要因素,但是,一方面國(guó)際短期資本可以通過(guò)進(jìn)口、外商直接投資和短期外債的渠道流入投資國(guó),另一方面國(guó)際短期資本劇烈的波動(dòng)有可能成為一國(guó)金融危機(jī)的直接或間接原因。因此,研究國(guó)際短期資本流動(dòng)和官方外匯儲(chǔ)備的關(guān)系是非常有必要的。 針對(duì)我國(guó)而言,由于資本項(xiàng)目的管制沒(méi)有放開(kāi),國(guó)際短期資本可以通過(guò)各種合法隱蔽及非法渠道進(jìn)行跨境資金流動(dòng),因此這就給測(cè)度在華境外短期資本的流動(dòng)規(guī)模造成一定的難度。雖然現(xiàn)階段我國(guó)沒(méi)有一個(gè)準(zhǔn)確的模型能夠測(cè)度在華境外短期資本的規(guī)模,但是運(yùn)用國(guó)際通行的測(cè)算方法能夠大致觀測(cè)到國(guó)際短期資本在我國(guó)境內(nèi)的流動(dòng)行為。在1997-1998年?yáng)|南亞金融危機(jī)時(shí),在華境外短期資本掀起一股逃離我國(guó)的浪潮。從1999年開(kāi)始,在華境外短期資本凈流出的規(guī)模在減少,到2003年,國(guó)際短期資本從凈流出變?yōu)閮袅魅�。這是因?yàn)橐环矫鏂|南亞金融危機(jī)對(duì)我國(guó)的影響并不大,我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)很快恢復(fù)高速增長(zhǎng),另方面從2003年開(kāi)始人民幣升值的預(yù)期越來(lái)越高。從2006年開(kāi)始,我國(guó)又進(jìn)入一個(gè)國(guó)際短期資本凈流出的時(shí)期,特別是2007年次貸危機(jī)及2008年形成全球金融危機(jī)后,在華境外短期資本凈流出較多。在2009年出現(xiàn)了大量國(guó)際短期資本凈流入之后,又出現(xiàn)了凈流出的態(tài)勢(shì)。截止2012年,在華境外短期資本凈流出較多。與此同時(shí),我國(guó)的官方外匯儲(chǔ)備在經(jīng)歷了從2000年開(kāi)始的高速增長(zhǎng)之后,從2012年開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)低速增長(zhǎng)。 根據(jù)實(shí)證分析,本文得出以下主要結(jié)論。國(guó)際短期資本流動(dòng)對(duì)我官方外匯儲(chǔ)備變化有影響,但是只有在金融危機(jī)發(fā)生的背景下,國(guó)際短期資本外逃會(huì)對(duì)我國(guó)官方外匯儲(chǔ)備產(chǎn)生較大的負(fù)面影響。在經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)發(fā)展之時(shí),國(guó)際短期資本流動(dòng)不會(huì)對(duì)我國(guó)官方外匯儲(chǔ)備產(chǎn)生較大波動(dòng)。國(guó)際投資者對(duì)國(guó)際環(huán)境未來(lái)預(yù)期的波動(dòng),會(huì)減少我國(guó)官方外匯儲(chǔ)備。當(dāng)國(guó)際投資者預(yù)期投資環(huán)境波動(dòng)越強(qiáng)烈,我國(guó)官方外匯儲(chǔ)備受到的影響越大。截止到目前我國(guó)沒(méi)有受到金融危機(jī)的嚴(yán)重沖擊,因此我國(guó)官方外匯儲(chǔ)備的波動(dòng)不是主要源于國(guó)際短期資本的波動(dòng)�，F(xiàn)階段在華境外短期資本的大量流出屬于正常流動(dòng)范疇,不會(huì)引發(fā)看空中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的浪潮,更不會(huì)引起我國(guó)金融危機(jī)的爆發(fā)。我國(guó)官方外匯儲(chǔ)備高增長(zhǎng)的模式開(kāi)始改變,因巨額官方外匯儲(chǔ)備帶來(lái)的貨幣超發(fā)現(xiàn)象將得到扭轉(zhuǎn)。 針對(duì)我國(guó)現(xiàn)階段國(guó)際短期資本流動(dòng)與官方外匯儲(chǔ)備的關(guān)系,本文認(rèn)為我國(guó)政府需要注重以下幾點(diǎn)：第一,規(guī)范國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的管理,加快開(kāi)放資本賬戶,使國(guó)際短期資本流動(dòng)可監(jiān)測(cè)；第二,繼續(xù)堅(jiān)持促進(jìn)外匯資金流出的政策；第三,密切關(guān)注VIX指數(shù)的變化；第四,釋放官方外匯儲(chǔ)備巨額增長(zhǎng)的壓力。
[Abstract]:The international short-term capital flow under the background of financial globalization has become an irreversible trend. In recent years, its role in the world financial crisis by the attention of scholars, in different financial crisis formation mechanism, short-term and long-term influence to investment in the country caused a large number of international short-term capital flight is different. When a country's economic strength weak, herding caused by international short-term capital flight so that the country's economic recovery is slow; when a country's strong economic strength, international short-term capital flight impact on investment in China is limited, current account huge surplus recovery will be faster in the reverse bearish situation.
Several times in the financial crisis occurred in 1990s, a large number of international short-term capital flight caused losses to these countries of official foreign exchange reserves. Because there is not enough official foreign exchange reserves to cope with capital flight, these countries even give up the fixed exchange rate system in the world. Since then, various emerging markets and developing countries continues to increase their official the scale of foreign exchange reserves, global official foreign exchange reserves in the high growth of.1995 global official foreign exchange reserves of $1 trillion and 389 billion 587 million, and by the end of 2012, global official foreign exchange reserves of $10 trillion and 936 billion 323 million, an increase of 6.87 times. Especially in the 2002-2007 years, the average annual growth rate reached 21.92%. in high global official foreign exchange reserves the scale, 2/3 from emerging markets and developing countries.
The demand factors of official foreign exchange reserves is the main import scale, the scale of foreign direct investment and foreign debt. Although the international short-term capital flows is not the main factor affecting a country's official foreign exchange reserves, however, on the one hand the international short-term capital through imports, foreign direct investment and short-term debt into investment in the channel, on the other hand, international the volatility of short-term capital may be a direct or indirect causes of the financial crisis in one country. Therefore, research on the relationship between international short-term capital flows and official foreign exchange reserves is very necessary.
In our country, because capital controls have not been opened, the international short-term capital can make cross-border capital flows through a variety of legal and illegal covert channels, so this is to measure in China Overseas short-term capital scale is difficult. Although at the present stage in our country without an accurate model can measure in China Overseas short-term the scale of capital, but the use of conventional international measurement methods can be roughly observed international short-term capital flow behavior in our country. In 1997-1998 years when the Asian financial crisis, international short-term capital in China set off a wave of escape in China. From the beginning of 1999, the China International short-term capital outflow in the scale in reducing by 2003, the international short-term capital from the net outflow of net inflow into. This is because of the impact of financial crisis in Southeast Asia on the one hand, China is not large, the economy of our country soon. After rapid growth, on the other hand from the beginning of 2003 the expected appreciation of the renminbi is getting higher and higher. From the beginning of 2006, China has entered a period of international short-term capital outflow, especially the subprime crisis of 2007 and 2008 formed after the global financial crisis in China, overseas short-term net capital outflow. More appeared in the 2009 net inflows international short-term capital, and a net outflow trend. By the end of 2012, the China International short-term capital outflow more. At the same time, China's official foreign exchange reserves after the rapid growth from the beginning of 2000, from 2012 began to slow growth.
According to the empirical analysis, this paper draws the following conclusions. The international short-term capital flow has influence on our official foreign exchange reserves, but only in the background of the financial crisis, the international short-term capital flight will have a great negative impact on China's official foreign exchange reserves. In the stable economic development, will not produce the international short-term capital flow large fluctuations on China's official foreign exchange reserves. International investors on the international environment of the future expected volatility, will reduce China's official foreign exchange reserves. When international investors expected investment environment fluctuation more strongly influenced by China's official foreign exchange reserves is increasing. As a serious impact in China does not have the financial crisis, so the fluctuation of foreign exchange China's official reserves volatility is not due to the international short-term capital. At the present stage in China Overseas short-term capital outflow belongs to the category of normal flow, It will not lead to a wave of Chinese economy and will not lead to the outbreak of China's financial crisis. The pattern of high growth of our official foreign exchange reserves has begun to change. The phenomenon of excessive money brought by huge foreign exchange reserves will be reversed.
For the present stage of our country international short-term capital flows and official foreign exchange reserves, this paper argues that our government needs to pay attention to the following points: first, standardize the capital flow management, speeding up the opening of the capital account, the international short-term capital flow monitoring; second, continue to adhere to the promotion of foreign exchange capital outflow policy; third, pay close attention to the change of VIX index; fourth, the official release of huge foreign exchange reserves growth pressure.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F831.7;F832.6

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