本文關鍵詞：CAFTA框架下人民幣跨境流通研究　出處：《天津財經大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 人民幣 跨境流通 中國-東盟自由貿易區(qū)

【摘要】：隨著我國經濟的持續(xù)增長,綜合國力的提升,在區(qū)域經濟貿易中地位不斷提高,人民幣跨境流通規(guī)模和范圍進一步擴大。人民幣境外規(guī)模的擴大促進了人民幣國際貨幣職能的深化,人民幣作為區(qū)域貨幣的影響力已經顯現。 2010年中國-東盟自由貿易區(qū)(CAFTA)正式成立,這不僅使中國與東盟國家間的經濟發(fā)展揭開新的篇章,而且使人民幣區(qū)域化進入更有利的發(fā)展框架之中。借助CAFTA的貿易平臺效應,人民幣在東盟國家的流通量快速增長,有效地補充了國際結算的需要；同時,人民幣的跨境流通在高度貨幣化的當今社會會導致各種要素和資源的跨境配置,進而對國民經濟、區(qū)域經濟乃至世界經濟產生重要作用。一方面,在CAFTA框架下人民幣的境外流通有利于促進我國與東盟國家的對外貿易,有利于我國經濟產業(yè)結構調整,在區(qū)域范圍內優(yōu)化資源配置；有利于我國出口企業(yè)規(guī)避匯率風險,使我國獲得鑄幣稅收益；有利于提高我國商業(yè)銀行的國際化經營水平和人民幣國際地位的提高。另一方面,人民幣的跨境流通由于監(jiān)測缺位,對我國邊境省區(qū)的金融穩(wěn)定可能造成沖擊,加大我國海關監(jiān)管的難度。人民幣跨境流通大規(guī)模發(fā)展起來后,金融市場上利率和匯率的微小變化都有可能引起人民幣的大規(guī)模流動,國際游資也可能趁機滲透進來。這種逐利資本的流動一般都具有順周期的特性,這與宏觀經濟調控的逆周期性相悖,大大增加了我國宏觀經濟調控的風險和成本。目前,在CAFTA框架下,我們應該借助有利形勢,進一步促進我國和東盟國家的邊境貿易,保持人民幣匯率穩(wěn)中有升,建立有效的人民幣跨境流通的管理和監(jiān)測體系,促進人民幣區(qū)域化進程的發(fā)展。 在研究方法和創(chuàng)新方面,主要采用了定性分析與定量分析相結合的方法,在對人民幣境外流通進行成因與效應分析的同時,建立計量模型,加入經濟數據的實證分析,使用大量數據、圖表來分析CAFTA框架下人民幣跨境流通的現狀及其影響。在創(chuàng)新方面,在中國-東盟自由貿易區(qū)(CAFTA)的框架下,對東盟國家的人民幣流通規(guī)模、結構和流通渠道進行分析,更具有針對性和現實意義；在數據分析的基礎上,再探究CAFTA框架下人民幣流通的成因和影響,理論與實務相結合,實踐意義較強。
[Abstract]:With the continuous growth of China's economy and the promotion of comprehensive national strength, the status of regional economy and trade has been continuously improved. The scale and scope of cross-border circulation of RMB has been further expanded. The expansion of the scale of RMB overseas has promoted the deepening of the international monetary function of the RMB, and the influence of the RMB as a regional currency has been shown. CAFTAA was established in 2010, which not only makes the economic development between China and ASEAN countries open a new chapter. With the help of the trade platform effect of CAFTA, the circulation of RMB in ASEAN countries increases rapidly, which effectively complements the need of international settlement. At the same time, the cross-border circulation of RMB in the highly monetized society today will lead to the cross-border allocation of various elements and resources, which will play an important role in the national economy, regional economy and even the world economy. Under the framework of CAFTA, the circulation of RMB abroad is beneficial to promote the foreign trade between China and ASEAN countries, to adjust the industrial structure of our economy and to optimize the allocation of resources in the regional scope. It is beneficial for our export enterprises to avoid the exchange rate risk and make our country gain the seigniorage income. On the other hand, the cross-border circulation of RMB may have an impact on the financial stability of China's border provinces because of the absence of monitoring. After the large-scale development of cross-border circulation of RMB, the small changes of interest rate and exchange rate in the financial market may cause the large-scale flow of RMB. The flow of profit-driven capital is generally pro-cyclical, contrary to the countercyclical nature of macroeconomic regulation. At present, under the framework of CAFTA, we should further promote the border trade between China and ASEAN countries with the help of favorable situation. Keep the RMB exchange rate steady and rising, establish an effective management and monitoring system of RMB cross-border circulation, and promote the development of RMB regionalization. In the aspect of research method and innovation, this paper mainly adopts the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, and establishes the econometric model while analyzing the causes and effects of RMB circulation abroad. Add the empirical analysis of economic data, using a large number of data, charts to analyze the current situation and impact of RMB cross-border circulation under the framework of CAFTA. Under the framework of China-ASEAN Free Trade area (CAFTAA), it is more pertinent and practical to analyze the scale, structure and channel of RMB circulation in ASEAN countries. On the basis of data analysis, this paper probes into the cause and influence of RMB circulation under the framework of CAFTA. The combination of theory and practice is of great practical significance.
【學位授予單位】：天津財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.6;F822.2

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 石建勛;全淑琴;鐘建飛;;人民幣成為區(qū)域主導貨幣的實證研究——基于匯率視角的考察[J];財經問題研究;2011年01期

2 馬根發(fā);最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)理論與我國區(qū)域貨幣政策選擇[J];當代經濟研究;2005年09期

3 郭宏;;金融危機與東盟區(qū)域經濟合作[J];東南亞縱橫;2009年06期

4 馮偉杰;魏磊;;中國與東盟區(qū)域經濟合作中存在的問題及對策[J];對外經貿實務;2010年02期

5 袁波;;中國-東盟自貿區(qū)的合作現狀與前景展望[J];國際經濟合作;2010年01期

6 謝志剛;;中國與東盟經濟合作的制約因素與對策[J];國際經濟合作;2010年04期

7 張久琴;;中國—東盟自由貿易區(qū):問題與對策[J];國際經濟合作;2010年07期

8 王玉主;沈銘輝;;中國—東盟FTA的實施效果研究[J];國際經濟合作;2010年09期

9 陳雯;;中國-東盟自由貿易區(qū)的貿易效應研究──基于引力模型“單國模式”的實證分析[J];國際貿易問題;2009年01期

10 蘇振東;周瑋慶;;我國對東盟的出口貿易結構及其變遷——基于產品技術附加值分布的貿易結構分析法和變系數面板數據模型的動態(tài)分析[J];國際貿易問題;2009年03期

相關博士學位論文 前1條

1 孫東升;人民幣跨境流通的理論與實證分析[D];西南財經大學;2007年

，

本文編號：1360338