中國能源部門投資對巴基斯坦電力危機(jī)的影響：輸電損耗與能量混合分析
發(fā)布時間：2021-04-17 22:20
中巴經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊（CPEC）是中國“一帶一路”倡議（BRI）所規(guī)劃的六大走廊之一。它的建設(shè)使世界銀行重新預(yù)測了巴基斯坦的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長趨勢:對其國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）年均增長率預(yù)估值從原來的5.4%增至5.8%。然而,重新預(yù)估的增長率仍然低于國際平均標(biāo)準(zhǔn),其原因主要是巴基斯坦的能源危機(jī)。能源危機(jī)使巴基斯坦的GDP年均增長率大約減少了2%。據(jù)估計,在中國對巴基斯坦基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建造的投資中,大約60%投入了電力行業(yè)。這也是習(xí)近平提出的“一帶一路”倡議的主要原則之一。中國能源部門對于基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施發(fā)展的投資巨大,大約相當(dāng)于巴基斯坦國民生產(chǎn)總值的20%;因此,研究這樣一筆巨大投資對于巴基斯坦能源困境的影響具有重要意義。由于所有的項(xiàng)目尚處于發(fā)展階段,因此通過理論手段預(yù)測其影響的可能性受到限制,本文選擇了案例研究的手段,使用量化分析和定性分析的方法獲得研究依據(jù)。本研究首先對現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了元分析,然后利用斯皮爾曼等級相關(guān)方法獲得了數(shù)據(jù)。相關(guān)性分析的結(jié)果顯著:47%的研究表明了“未進(jìn)行適當(dāng)?shù)囊?guī)劃”可能是中國的投資未能全面解決巴基斯坦能源危機(jī)遇到的一大阻礙;64%研究表明電力傳輸損耗也是阻礙之一;還有64%的研究表明中國投...
【文章來源】：中國科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)安徽省 211工程院校 985工程院校
【文章頁數(shù)】：204 頁
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【文章目錄】：
摘要
Abstract
Acknowledgement
List of Abbreviations
Chapter 1 Introduction
1.1 Background
1.1.1 The Power Crisis of Pakistan
1.1.2 Energy Policies of Pakistan
1.1.3 The 5-E-Approach to Analyze Energy Policies of Pakistan
1.2 Statement of problem
1.3 Purpose and Objective of the study
1.4 Significance/Contribution
1.5 Composition of the Study
Chapter 2 Literature Review
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Global Studies Focusing on Energy and Economic Growth Nexus
2.3 Literature on Pakistan's Case of Energy & Economic Output Nexus
2.4 Literature on Electric Power Transmission Losses in Pakistan
2.5 Literature on Furnace Oil for Electricity and BoP Constrained Growth
2.6 Literature Concerning CPEC and Pakistan's Energy Crisis
2.7 Theoretical Framework of the Research
2.8 Summary
Chapter 3 Variables Data and Methodology
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Variables Selected
3.2.1 Selected Variables for the Statistical Validation of Meta-Analysis
3.2.2 Selected Variables for the Direct Impact Analysis
3.2.3 Selected Variables for the Indirect Causal Analysis
3.3 Data and Statistics
3.3.1 Data for the Validation of the Meta-Analysis Test
3.3.2 Data for the Direct Causal Analysis
3.3.3 Data for the Indirect Causal Analysis
3.4 Methodology
3.4.1 Methodology Assumed and Reasons for Adopting Meta-Analysis
3.4.2 Methodology for the Direct Causal Analysis
3.4.3 Methodology for the Indirect Causal Analysis
3.4.4 Adopted Tests for the Direct Causal Analysis
3.4.5 Adopted Tests for the Indirect causal Analysis
3.4.6 Softwares Utilized
Chapter 4 CPEC and Energy Sector a Meta-Analytic Review
4.1 Introduction
4.1.1 Chinese Infrastructure Investments in Pakistan for the Development of CPEC
4.1.2 Chinese Investment in Pakistan's Transport Sector
4.1.3 Chinese Investment in Pakistan's Industrial Sector
4.1.4 Chinese Investment in Pakistan's Agriculture Sector
4.2 History of Pakistan's Energy-Mix for Electric Power Generation
4.3 Pakistan's Future Electricity Planning
4.3.1 Future Energy Projects Proposed under the CPEC
4.4 Statistical Meta Analytic Review
4.4.1 Data Analysis
4.4.2 Results
4.5 Summary
4.5.1 Economic Performance
4.5.2 Electricity Distribution Losses and Obsolete Technology
4.5.3 Poor Energy Policy Planning
4.5.4 Sustainable Energy-Mix Development
Chapter 5 Direct Impact Analysis（Impact of Electricity Crisis and Electricity Production throughFurnace Oil & Transmission losses on Economic Growth of Pakistan）
5.1 Introduction
5.2 The Direct Causal Analysis
5.2.1 Cragg Donald Test
5.2.2 GMM Estimated Results
5.2.3 Robustness Check
5.3 Summary
Chapter 6 Indirect Impact Analysis（Mapping BOP Constrain Economic Growth in Pakistan）
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Indirect Causal Analysis Mapping BOP Constrained Economic Growth in Pakistan
6.2.1 Identification of BOP Constraint within the Economy of Pakistan
6.2.2 Results from the ARDL model
6.3 Summary
Chapter 7 Discussion on Results
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Chinese Investments and Pakistan's Power Production through Oil
7.3 Chinese Investments and Electric Power Transmission Losses
7.4 Chinese Energy Investments and Pakistan's Energy Crisis
7.5 Projections for Electricity Losses and Sustainable Energy-Mix
7.6 Summary
Chapter 8 Conclusion and Recommendations
8.1 Conclusion
8.2 Policy Recommendations
8.2.1 Focus on Demand-Side as well as on the Supply-Side
8.2.2 Reforming Energy Governance and Engaging Local Think Tanks
8.2.3 Diversifying Sources of Reviewable Electric Power Production
8.2.4 Augmenting Electricity Production Through Pakistan's Indigenous Coal
8.2.5 Automate Pakistan Electric Power System
8.2.6 Learning from the Experiences of Other Countries
8.3 Limitations of the Study
8.4 Further Research Directions
Bibliography
Appendix-A
Papers Published During Research
本文編號：3144233
【文章來源】：中國科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)安徽省 211工程院校 985工程院校
【文章頁數(shù)】：204 頁
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【文章目錄】：
摘要
Abstract
Acknowledgement
List of Abbreviations
Chapter 1 Introduction
1.1 Background
1.1.1 The Power Crisis of Pakistan
1.1.2 Energy Policies of Pakistan
1.1.3 The 5-E-Approach to Analyze Energy Policies of Pakistan
1.2 Statement of problem
1.3 Purpose and Objective of the study
1.4 Significance/Contribution
1.5 Composition of the Study
Chapter 2 Literature Review
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Global Studies Focusing on Energy and Economic Growth Nexus
2.3 Literature on Pakistan's Case of Energy & Economic Output Nexus
2.4 Literature on Electric Power Transmission Losses in Pakistan
2.5 Literature on Furnace Oil for Electricity and BoP Constrained Growth
2.6 Literature Concerning CPEC and Pakistan's Energy Crisis
2.7 Theoretical Framework of the Research
2.8 Summary
Chapter 3 Variables Data and Methodology
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Variables Selected
3.2.1 Selected Variables for the Statistical Validation of Meta-Analysis
3.2.2 Selected Variables for the Direct Impact Analysis
3.2.3 Selected Variables for the Indirect Causal Analysis
3.3 Data and Statistics
3.3.1 Data for the Validation of the Meta-Analysis Test
3.3.2 Data for the Direct Causal Analysis
3.3.3 Data for the Indirect Causal Analysis
3.4 Methodology
3.4.1 Methodology Assumed and Reasons for Adopting Meta-Analysis
3.4.2 Methodology for the Direct Causal Analysis
3.4.3 Methodology for the Indirect Causal Analysis
3.4.4 Adopted Tests for the Direct Causal Analysis
3.4.5 Adopted Tests for the Indirect causal Analysis
3.4.6 Softwares Utilized
Chapter 4 CPEC and Energy Sector a Meta-Analytic Review
4.1 Introduction
4.1.1 Chinese Infrastructure Investments in Pakistan for the Development of CPEC
4.1.2 Chinese Investment in Pakistan's Transport Sector
4.1.3 Chinese Investment in Pakistan's Industrial Sector
4.1.4 Chinese Investment in Pakistan's Agriculture Sector
4.2 History of Pakistan's Energy-Mix for Electric Power Generation
4.3 Pakistan's Future Electricity Planning
4.3.1 Future Energy Projects Proposed under the CPEC
4.4 Statistical Meta Analytic Review
4.4.1 Data Analysis
4.4.2 Results
4.5 Summary
4.5.1 Economic Performance
4.5.2 Electricity Distribution Losses and Obsolete Technology
4.5.3 Poor Energy Policy Planning
4.5.4 Sustainable Energy-Mix Development
Chapter 5 Direct Impact Analysis（Impact of Electricity Crisis and Electricity Production throughFurnace Oil & Transmission losses on Economic Growth of Pakistan）
5.1 Introduction
5.2 The Direct Causal Analysis
5.2.1 Cragg Donald Test
5.2.2 GMM Estimated Results
5.2.3 Robustness Check
5.3 Summary
Chapter 6 Indirect Impact Analysis（Mapping BOP Constrain Economic Growth in Pakistan）
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Indirect Causal Analysis Mapping BOP Constrained Economic Growth in Pakistan
6.2.1 Identification of BOP Constraint within the Economy of Pakistan
6.2.2 Results from the ARDL model
6.3 Summary
Chapter 7 Discussion on Results
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Chinese Investments and Pakistan's Power Production through Oil
7.3 Chinese Investments and Electric Power Transmission Losses
7.4 Chinese Energy Investments and Pakistan's Energy Crisis
7.5 Projections for Electricity Losses and Sustainable Energy-Mix
7.6 Summary
Chapter 8 Conclusion and Recommendations
8.1 Conclusion
8.2 Policy Recommendations
8.2.1 Focus on Demand-Side as well as on the Supply-Side
8.2.2 Reforming Energy Governance and Engaging Local Think Tanks
8.2.3 Diversifying Sources of Reviewable Electric Power Production
8.2.4 Augmenting Electricity Production Through Pakistan's Indigenous Coal
8.2.5 Automate Pakistan Electric Power System
8.2.6 Learning from the Experiences of Other Countries
8.3 Limitations of the Study
8.4 Further Research Directions
Bibliography
Appendix-A
Papers Published During Research
本文編號：3144233
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