發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-11-02 07:49

【摘要】：Z市位于陜西省南部,天然氣等資源儲(chǔ)量豐富,但目前開(kāi)發(fā)力度不足,相關(guān)配套基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)處于初期發(fā)展階段。而H公司自2009年取得Z市除中心城區(qū)以外各縣城市燃?xì)馓卦S經(jīng)營(yíng)權(quán)以來(lái),在Z市各縣域燃?xì)馔顿Y項(xiàng)目上已經(jīng)取得了長(zhǎng)足的發(fā)展,用戶數(shù)量和用氣量的年平均增長(zhǎng)率均達(dá)到50%以上,但由于投資區(qū)域城鎮(zhèn)化率較低,城市規(guī)模小、人口總量少,工商業(yè)基礎(chǔ)薄弱,居民消費(fèi)水平較低等因素導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)潛力有限,難以實(shí)現(xiàn)規(guī)模效益,導(dǎo)致企業(yè)營(yíng)利能力較弱。而Z市中心城區(qū)城市規(guī)模、人口基數(shù)和密度均較大,工商業(yè)發(fā)達(dá),居民消費(fèi)水平較高,其市場(chǎng)潛力較周邊縣區(qū)具有顯著優(yōu)勢(shì),對(duì)中心城區(qū)市場(chǎng)的投資成為了H公司現(xiàn)階段解決發(fā)展瓶頸問(wèn)題的最有效途徑,因此,有必要對(duì)Z市中心城區(qū)天然氣投資項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行研究并提出可行的對(duì)策和建議。論文分別從H公司的背景分析、Z市中心城區(qū)燃?xì)馐袌?chǎng)投資項(xiàng)目的市場(chǎng)分析、估算分析、財(cái)務(wù)分析、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析等方面進(jìn)行總體評(píng)估。研究結(jié)果表明:第一,從H公司的發(fā)展背景、組織結(jié)構(gòu)、資產(chǎn)狀況、市場(chǎng)狀況等方面總結(jié)得出H公司作為主要投資者具有實(shí)力強(qiáng)、市場(chǎng)廣、潛力大的優(yōu)勢(shì);第二,市場(chǎng)分析發(fā)現(xiàn)目前Z市中心城區(qū)燃?xì)馐袌?chǎng)具有較大的市場(chǎng)空白,項(xiàng)目建設(shè)能夠完善Z市燃?xì)馐袌?chǎng),為Z市中心城區(qū)人民提供具有較高品貢和水準(zhǔn)的生活體驗(yàn),帶動(dòng)Z市經(jīng)濟(jì)以及當(dāng)?shù)禺a(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的發(fā)展;第三,整體估算結(jié)果得出該項(xiàng)目每年均能實(shí)現(xiàn)本利一次還清,較好地契合了投資資金的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)估算;第四,財(cái)務(wù)分析顯示,總投資收益率為39.43%,資本金利潤(rùn)率為68.17%,財(cái)務(wù)凈現(xiàn)值大于0,財(cái)務(wù)內(nèi)部收益率是19.60%,動(dòng)態(tài)投資回收期為9.27年,該項(xiàng)目具有較大的財(cái)務(wù)盈利優(yōu)勢(shì),獲利能力較強(qiáng)。各貸款期內(nèi)利息備付率、償債備付率、資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率均滿足財(cái)務(wù)要求,項(xiàng)目的清償能力較強(qiáng),同時(shí)敏感性分析結(jié)果顯示銷售單價(jià)為綜合敏感性因素,H公司應(yīng)該將天然氣價(jià)格的可能變動(dòng)控制在預(yù)測(cè)范圍內(nèi);第五,項(xiàng)目投資過(guò)程中可能會(huì)產(chǎn)生市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、生產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等,因此項(xiàng)目建設(shè)過(guò)程中應(yīng)該積極管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn),有效地控制風(fēng)險(xiǎn),以滿足項(xiàng)目安全性、收益性等要求。
[Abstract]:Z City is located in the south of Shaanxi Province, which is rich in natural gas and other resources, but its development is insufficient at present, and the related supporting infrastructure construction is in the initial stage of development. Since 2009, when H Company obtained the right to operate gas in every county except the central city of Z city, it has made great progress in gas investment projects in every county of Z city. The average annual growth rate of both the number of users and the amount of gas used is over 50%, but the market potential is limited due to the low urbanization rate in the investment regions, the small scale of cities, the small population, the weak industrial and commercial base, and the low level of consumption of the residents. Difficult to achieve economies of scale, resulting in weak profitability. The scale, population base and density of Z city center are large, the industry and commerce are developed, the consumption level of residents is high, and its market potential has significant advantages over the surrounding counties. Investment in the central city market has become the most effective way for H Company to solve the bottleneck problem of development at the present stage. Therefore, it is necessary to study the natural gas investment project in Z city center and put forward feasible countermeasures and suggestions. In this paper, the background analysis of H Company, the market analysis, estimation analysis, financial analysis and risk analysis of gas market investment projects in Z city center are carried out. The results show that: first, from the development background, organizational structure, asset situation, market situation of H Company, we can conclude that H Company as the main investor has the advantages of strong strength, wide market and great potential; Second, market analysis found that the gas market in downtown Z has a large market gap at present. The project construction can perfect the gas market in Z, and provide a higher standard of living experience for the people in downtown Z. Driving the development of Z city economy and local industry chain; Third, the overall estimation results show that the project can realize the repayment of capital and interest once a year, which is in good agreement with the risk estimation of investment funds; Fourth, financial analysis shows that the total investment return rate is 39.43, the capital profit margin is 68.17, the financial net present value is greater than 0, the financial internal return rate is 19.600.The dynamic investment payback period is 9.27 years. This project has bigger financial profit advantage, profit ability is stronger. The interest reserve ratio, repayment reserve ratio, asset-liability ratio in each loan period all meet the financial requirements, and the project has strong solvency. Meanwhile, the sensitivity analysis results show that the unit price of the sale is a comprehensive sensitive factor. Company H should keep the possible changes in natural gas prices within the forecast range; Fifth, there may be market risk, financial risk, production risk, macroeconomic policy risk and so on in the process of project investment. Therefore, in the process of project construction, we should actively manage the risk and effectively control the risk in order to meet the safety of the project. A requirement for profitability, etc.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F426.22;F406.7

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