發(fā)布時間：2018-10-12 20:54

【摘要】：近年來,中國和印度做為經(jīng)濟發(fā)展最快的兩大經(jīng)濟體,在全球市場中倍受矚目。兩國經(jīng)濟總量和對外貿(mào)易發(fā)展迅猛,且都積極參與一帶一路、孟中印緬經(jīng)濟走廊、區(qū)域全面經(jīng)濟伙伴關系(RCEP)等區(qū)域性合作組織為其發(fā)展助力,社會各界不斷涌現(xiàn)出印度或?qū)②s超中國的言論。相對于出口規(guī)模,出口復雜度可以反映一國出口產(chǎn)品的質(zhì)量,決定其經(jīng)濟的長期增長。故本文對中印的制造業(yè)出口復雜度及其影響因素進行了比較研究。首先,本文在對比了中印制造業(yè)出口現(xiàn)狀的基礎上,選取2006—2015年45個樣本國家(地區(qū))SITCRev.3三位碼編碼的205種制造業(yè)產(chǎn)品的出口數(shù)據(jù),采用Rodrik(2006)的出口復雜度的測度方法,測算出各國(地區(qū))制造業(yè)的出口復雜度,并就中印的出口復雜度情況做了比較分析。從產(chǎn)品層面來看,世界水平制造業(yè)產(chǎn)品的出口復雜度得到顯著提高;從行業(yè)層面來看,整體來講,中印制造業(yè)行業(yè)出口復雜度在波動中呈增長趨勢,但是不同行業(yè)之間存在較大的差別;從國家層面來看,中國和印度制造業(yè)出口復雜度都有顯著提升,且中國的出口復雜高于印度,但印度增長勢頭強勁。其次,為探究兩國出口復雜度的提升受哪些因素的影響及影響程度如何,本文結(jié)合相關理論引入技術創(chuàng)新、人力資本、人口總數(shù)、基礎設施建設、外商直接投資和金融發(fā)展六個因素,通過構(gòu)建模型,分別對兩國出口復雜度的影響因素進行了實證分析。結(jié)果表明,以上六個要素對中印制造業(yè)出口復雜度的影響方向和影響程度都有所不同。最后,根據(jù)對上述結(jié)果的分析,對提升中國制造業(yè)出口復雜度、優(yōu)化中國制造業(yè)對外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)提出了相關對策建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China and India, the two fastest-growing economies, have attracted much attention in global markets. The total economic volume and foreign trade of the two countries have developed rapidly, and both have actively participated in regional cooperation organizations such as Belt and Road, the Mencia-China Indo-Myanmar Economic Corridor, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and other regional cooperation organizations that have contributed to its development. There is a steady stream of talk that India may overtake China. Relative to export scale, export complexity can reflect the quality of a country's export products and determine its long-term economic growth. Therefore, this paper makes a comparative study on the manufacturing export complexity and its influencing factors between China and India. First of all, on the basis of comparing the current situation of manufacturing exports between China and India, this paper selects the export data of 45 sample countries (regions) with SITCRev.3 three-digit code from 2006 to 2015, and adopts the method of measuring the export complexity of Rodrik (2006). The export complexity of manufacturing industry is calculated and compared with that of India and China. From the product level, the export complexity of the world level manufacturing products has been significantly increased. From the industry level, overall, the export complexity of the Sino-Indian manufacturing industry has shown an increasing trend in the fluctuations. But there are big differences between industries; at the national level, both Chinese and Indian manufacturing export complexity has increased significantly, and China's exports are more complex than India's, but India's growth momentum is strong. Secondly, in order to find out which factors affect the increase of export complexity, this paper introduces technology innovation, human capital, total population, infrastructure construction, combined with relevant theories. Foreign direct investment (FDI) and financial development are the six factors that influence the export complexity of the two countries. The results show that the above six factors have different influence on the export complexity of China and India. Finally, based on the analysis of the above results, the author puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to improve the export complexity of China's manufacturing industry and optimize the foreign trade structure of China's manufacturing industry.
【學位授予單位】：云南師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F752.62;F753.51;F414

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本文編號：2267564