【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的飛速發(fā)展,電力行業(yè)已成為國家能源領(lǐng)域的重大基礎(chǔ)行業(yè),并逐漸在國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展中扮演著愈發(fā)重要的地位。而電力負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)是電力系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)定良好運(yùn)行的重要保障,是電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃建設(shè)和運(yùn)行檢修的重要前提,其預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果的準(zhǔn)確性將會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展、電網(wǎng)布局和居民日常生活產(chǎn)生重要影響。當(dāng)前,京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展已被確定為國家戰(zhàn)略,這將為京津冀地區(qū)注入新的發(fā)展動(dòng)力,同時(shí)也對(duì)地區(qū)電力保障供應(yīng)、負(fù)荷需求分析等方面提出了新的要求。張家口作為京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展中的重要城市,不僅將與北京聯(lián)合舉辦第24屆奧林匹克冬季運(yùn)動(dòng)會(huì),還是國內(nèi)清潔能源消納占比最高的城市之一,具有重要的研究意義。本文從京津冀三地經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展和主要電力指標(biāo)等因素入手,站在區(qū)域協(xié)同發(fā)展角度,分析京津冀地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展對(duì)張家口電力負(fù)荷的影響,探索兩者之間的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系,并給出合理的解釋。結(jié)合張家口“十二五”期間負(fù)荷特性、電量構(gòu)成及配電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃建設(shè)情況,選擇區(qū)域負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)法、產(chǎn)值單耗法、分產(chǎn)業(yè)電耗法、灰色預(yù)測(cè)等方法進(jìn)行組合預(yù)測(cè),確定高增長(zhǎng)、中增長(zhǎng)、低增長(zhǎng)三種方案,對(duì)張家口市的負(fù)荷變化趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行初步預(yù)測(cè)和分析,并向電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃運(yùn)行部門提出建議。研究表明,京津冀三地發(fā)展差異較大,北京、天津各項(xiàng)指標(biāo)位居全國前列。河北整體發(fā)展水平相對(duì)落后,以第二產(chǎn)業(yè)為主導(dǎo)行業(yè),其工業(yè)用電比重與最大負(fù)荷利用小時(shí)呈現(xiàn)嚴(yán)格的正相關(guān)關(guān)系,這一趨勢(shì)預(yù)計(jì)在未來一段時(shí)期不會(huì)發(fā)生重大改變。張家口市的用電結(jié)構(gòu)呈現(xiàn)明顯的工業(yè)化特點(diǎn),第二產(chǎn)業(yè)用電比重高達(dá)68%。未來5年內(nèi),張家口市的全年用電量和最大負(fù)荷將雙雙增加,年均全社會(huì)用電量增長(zhǎng)率在4.7%左右。同時(shí),張家口市的用電結(jié)構(gòu)也將發(fā)生較大調(diào)整,第一產(chǎn)業(yè)和居民用電量將保持平穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng),所占比例基本保持穩(wěn)定,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)用電量將持續(xù)增加,所占比例將下降10%左右,第三產(chǎn)業(yè)用電量占比將提高8%左右,用電量增長(zhǎng)速度最快。本文同時(shí)建議加強(qiáng)城市群的電網(wǎng)負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)和網(wǎng)架規(guī)劃工作,完善城市電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃和數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)系統(tǒng),打造涵蓋氣象、經(jīng)濟(jì)、政策等多方面的跨區(qū)域負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)庫,以提高負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)的精確性和適應(yīng)性。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy and society, the electric power industry has become a major basic industry in the field of national energy, and gradually plays an increasingly important role in the development of the national economy. The power load forecasting is an important guarantee for the stable and good operation of the power system, and an important prerequisite for the planning, construction, operation and maintenance of the power network. The accuracy of the forecast results will be of great importance to the economic and social development. Power grid layout and daily life of residents have an important impact. At present, the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has been determined as the national strategy, which will inject new development power into the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and also put forward new requirements for the power supply and load demand analysis in the area. Zhangjiakou, as an important city in the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, will not only jointly host the 24th Olympic Winter Games with Beijing, but also one of the cities with the highest consumption of clean energy in China. Starting with the economic and social development and main power indicators of the three places of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, this paper analyzes the influence of the economic and social development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region on the power load of Zhangjiakou from the angle of regional coordinated development, and explores the internal relationship between the two. A reasonable explanation is given. Combined with the load characteristics, electric quantity composition and distribution network planning and construction during the 12th Five-Year Plan period of Zhangjiakou, the regional load forecasting method, the output value unit consumption method, the sub-industry power consumption method, and the grey forecasting method are selected to predict the high growth rate. This paper makes a preliminary forecast and analysis on the load change trend of Zhangjiakou City and puts forward some suggestions to the power network planning and operation department. The research shows that there are great differences in the development of Beijing, Tianjin and Beijing, and the indexes of Beijing, Tianjin and Tianjin are among the top in the country. The overall development level of Hebei is relatively backward, with the secondary industry as the leading industry, the proportion of industrial electricity consumption and the hours of maximum load utilization show a strict positive correlation, and this trend is not expected to change significantly in the future. The electricity structure of Zhangjiakou city shows obvious industrialization characteristic, the proportion of electricity consumption of secondary industry is as high as 68. In the next five years, the annual electricity consumption and maximum load of Zhangjiakou City will both increase, and the average annual growth rate of electricity consumption of the whole society will be about 4.7 percent. At the same time, the electricity consumption structure of Zhangjiakou City will also be greatly readjusted. The power consumption of the primary industry and residents will maintain a steady growth, the proportion of electricity consumption will remain basically stable, and the electricity consumption of the secondary industry will continue to increase, and the proportion will decrease by about 10 percent. The proportion of electricity consumption in the tertiary industry will increase by about 8%, and electricity consumption will grow fastest. At the same time, this paper suggests to strengthen the work of grid load forecasting and grid planning in urban agglomeration, improve the urban power network planning and data statistics system, and build a cross-regional load forecasting database covering meteorological, economic, policy and other aspects. To improve the accuracy and adaptability of load forecasting.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F426.61

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