【摘要】：[目的/意義]技術(shù)成熟度作為衡量技術(shù)發(fā)展狀態(tài)和未來趨勢的重要指標,可以有效控制技術(shù)研發(fā)和應(yīng)用的風(fēng)險,被廣泛應(yīng)用于高科技、國防和戰(zhàn)略性新興產(chǎn)業(yè)的技術(shù)預(yù)測中。[方法/過程]在綜合評述已有技術(shù)成熟度評價方法和應(yīng)用研究基礎(chǔ)上,基于轉(zhuǎn)化理論的視角,構(gòu)建包括論文比、專利比、引用比、專利網(wǎng)絡(luò)密度與效率等十個指標在內(nèi)的多維度技術(shù)成熟度評價模型,從而克服了單一指標的缺欠,并以混合動力汽車技術(shù)成熟度評價為例對該模型如何運用、準確性、合理性進行了說明。[結(jié)果/結(jié)論]測算結(jié)果表明,世界上混合動力汽車技術(shù)在2003年總體上已成熟,并在2009年以后由于在科學(xué)研究上的新突破而進入新的創(chuàng)新熱潮期。
[Abstract]:[objective / significance] Technology maturity, as an important index to measure the state and future trend of technology development, can effectively control the risk of technology development and application, and is widely used in technology prediction of high-tech, national defense and strategic emerging industries. [method / process] based on the comprehensive review of the existing technology maturity assessment methods and applied research, and based on the perspective of transformation theory, the paper ratio, patent ratio, citation ratio are constructed. The multi-dimensional technology maturity evaluation model, which includes ten indexes, such as patent network density and efficiency, overcomes the shortcomings of single index, and takes the technical maturity evaluation of hybrid electric vehicles as an example how to use and evaluate the accuracy of the model. The rationality is explained. [results / conclusion] the results show that the technology of HEV in the world has matured in 2003, and has entered a new period of innovation after 2009 due to the new breakthrough in scientific research.
【作者單位】： 鄭州大學(xué)管理工程學(xué)院;黃河科技學(xué)院;大連理工大學(xué)科學(xué)學(xué)與科技管理研究所;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項目“基于DSGE模型的新能源汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)協(xié)同創(chuàng)新體系研究”(編號:71540006) 河南省科技攻關(guān)項目“河南省人口資源環(huán)境和諧調(diào)控關(guān)鍵技術(shù)研究”(編號:132102310528);河南省科技攻關(guān)項目“河南省科技—經(jīng)濟中長期發(fā)展規(guī)劃的模型體系和關(guān)鍵技術(shù)研究”(編號:142102310141)研究成果之一
【分類號】：F426.471

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1 姬俊昌;新能源汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)技術(shù)成熟度研究[D];鄭州大學(xué);2015年

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