本文選題：“綠電” + “火電”��； 參考：《中國礦業(yè)大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：當前,在能源安全和環(huán)境污染的雙重壓力下,調整我國以化石能源為主的能源結構,大力發(fā)展清潔能源已經成為高度共識�！熬G電”作為清潔能源開發(fā)利用的最主要形式,在能源調整過程中扮演著越來越重要的角色。然而,近年來“綠電”發(fā)展過程中存在著開發(fā)緩慢、核心技術缺乏和政策選擇等問題,不禁使人們疑惑“綠電”能否在既定時間和規(guī)模內完成對“火電”的替代,“綠電”替代“火電”的最優(yōu)替代又該如何選擇。為了對這些問題做出科學判斷,在前人研究的基礎上,需要對我國“綠電”替代“火電”問題展開更進行深層次研究討論。因此,本文運用創(chuàng)新擴散模型和福利優(yōu)化模型,分別從“替代進程”與“替代潛力”兩種視角對電力替代問題進行了耦合分析。首先,考慮到“綠電”發(fā)展過程對技術依賴性較強這一原因,本文借助了主要反映技術性能對產品發(fā)展有重要影響作用的創(chuàng)新擴散模型對電力市場的擴散過程進行描述。明確了“綠電”擴散過程中的重要時點及各階段的時間跨度,結合我國“綠電”發(fā)展的實際情況,對“綠電”發(fā)展過程進行了階段劃分,結果顯示:當前,我國水電已經處于商業(yè)化發(fā)展階段,風電和二代核電也已處于產業(yè)化發(fā)展階段,而三代核電還處于項目示范階段。對“綠電”的階段劃分和各階段發(fā)展特征的詳細描述與分析,為政府各階段的自身角色定位和各階段電力政策的制定提供了理論依據。其次,在擴散預測基礎上,通過對發(fā)電能源未來各時點發(fā)電量及最大潛在發(fā)電量的預測評估得出:未來一段時間內,我國仍將以“火電”為主,“綠電”作為電力市場的重要補充,將發(fā)揮越來越重要的作用。水電和核電作為“綠電”最主要來源,開發(fā)速度相對緩慢。在技術層面對電力替代規(guī)模進行分析基礎上,進一步從現實層面出發(fā),將人們普遍關注的環(huán)境問題考慮在內,構建了包含“環(huán)境成本”的電力系統(tǒng)社會福利優(yōu)化模型。通過對比分析加入“環(huán)境成本”前后使社會福利最大化的各能源發(fā)電量得出:加入“環(huán)境成本”之前,在水電和核電滿發(fā)的基礎上,煤電發(fā)電量越多,電力系統(tǒng)社會福利越大;加入“環(huán)境成本”之后,“綠電”發(fā)電量越多,電力系統(tǒng)社會福利越大;最后,針對“綠電”替代“火電”過程中的存在的問題,給出了相應的政策建議。
[Abstract]:At present, under the dual pressure of energy security and environmental pollution, it has become a high consensus to adjust the energy structure based on fossil energy and vigorously develop clean energy. Green electricity, as the main form of clean energy development and utilization, plays a more and more important role in the process of energy adjustment. However, in recent years, there are some problems such as slow development, lack of core technology and policy choice in the development of "green power", which makes people doubt whether "green power" can be replaced by "thermal power" within a given time and scale. How to choose the best substitution of green electricity instead of thermal power? In order to make a scientific judgment on these problems, on the basis of previous studies, it is necessary to carry out deeper research and discussion on the substitution of "green electricity" for "thermal power" in our country. Therefore, by using innovation diffusion model and welfare optimization model, this paper analyzes the power substitution problem from the perspectives of "substitution process" and "substitution potential", respectively. Firstly, considering the strong dependence of green electricity on technology, this paper describes the diffusion process of electricity market with the help of innovation diffusion model, which mainly reflects the influence of technical performance on product development. The important time points and the time span of each stage in the process of "green electricity" diffusion are defined. According to the actual situation of the development of "green electricity" in China, the development process of "green electricity" is divided into stages. The results show that: at present, Hydropower in China is in the stage of commercial development, wind power and second-generation nuclear power are also in the stage of industrialization development, and the third generation of nuclear power is still in the stage of project demonstration. The detailed description and analysis of the stage division and development characteristics of "Green Power" provide a theoretical basis for the role orientation of each stage of the government and the formulation of power policy in each stage. Secondly, on the basis of diffusion prediction, it is concluded that thermal power will still be the main source of power generation in China for some time to come, through the prediction and evaluation of power generation and maximum potential power generation at various points in the future. "Green electricity" as an important supplement to the electricity market, will play an increasingly important role. Hydropower and nuclear power as the main source of green electricity, the pace of development is relatively slow. On the basis of analyzing the scale of electric power substitution from the technical level, and considering the environmental problems that people pay close attention to, the optimization model of power system social welfare including "environmental cost" is constructed. Through comparative analysis of the energy generation before and after joining "environmental cost" to maximize social welfare, it is concluded that before adding "environmental cost", on the basis of full generation of hydropower and nuclear power, the more coal power generation, the greater the social welfare of power system; After the introduction of "environmental cost", the more green electricity is generated, the greater the social welfare of power system is. Finally, some policy suggestions are given to solve the problems existing in the process of "green electricity" replacing "thermal power".
【學位授予單位】：中國礦業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.61

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