本文選題：云南有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè) + 投入產(chǎn)出分析　； 參考：《云南財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)中部門間總是通過投入產(chǎn)出關(guān)系而緊密聯(lián)系,產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展不直接均勻影響經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展情況,而是首先作用于某一個或者幾個密切關(guān)聯(lián)的產(chǎn)業(yè),然后再通過這些產(chǎn)業(yè)聯(lián)動影響到其他關(guān)聯(lián)部門,之后進一步對經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)產(chǎn)生作用。云南有色金屬資源豐富,因此在“新常態(tài)”背景下,通過投入產(chǎn)出關(guān)系研究云南有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)的關(guān)聯(lián)產(chǎn)業(yè),分析云南有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)的生產(chǎn)效率現(xiàn)狀,再進一步分析云南有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)對其他產(chǎn)業(yè)的靜態(tài)、動態(tài)聯(lián)動效應(yīng),對準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測經(jīng)濟發(fā)展,為政策建議提供依據(jù),實現(xiàn)整個云南經(jīng)濟更加平穩(wěn)、健康發(fā)展有著重要現(xiàn)實意義。本文在云南省各部門投入產(chǎn)出關(guān)系的基礎(chǔ)上,通過計算并分析2002年至2012年43部門前向、后向關(guān)聯(lián)系數(shù),分析出云南省整個經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)中與有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)前向、后向關(guān)聯(lián)的產(chǎn)業(yè)部門共23個。為進一步分析云南有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)現(xiàn)狀,將全國共31個省市的有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)效率進行三階段DEA分析。再以云南有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)為主體,進一步引入26部門可計算一般均衡(CGE)模型,對云南有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)受到某一沖擊后整個經(jīng)濟部門的靜態(tài)聯(lián)動效應(yīng)進行分析。之后引入26部門的動態(tài)隨機一般均衡(DSGE)模型,分析26個部門在受到單位1的沖擊時,在未來60期對各個經(jīng)濟部門的動態(tài)聯(lián)動效應(yīng),較好地模擬現(xiàn)實情況下有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)受到外界沖擊時,其他各個關(guān)聯(lián)部門的聯(lián)動情況。本文得到的政策建議主要為:一是從空間上,當(dāng)有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)價格下降幅度大于40%時,除了考慮對有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)本身的影響,還需要考慮與其關(guān)聯(lián)程度密切的電力、熱力生產(chǎn)和供應(yīng)等部門;當(dāng)云南有色金屬產(chǎn)品價格上漲時,大多下游部門的生產(chǎn)成本將提高,應(yīng)鼓勵這些部門從其他角度降低成本,且價格上漲時有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)利益主要從企業(yè)、居民向政府利益分配轉(zhuǎn)移,可以考慮對企業(yè)、居民的相應(yīng)補貼。二是從時間上,當(dāng)政策對有色金屬產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)生沖擊時,除了考慮其產(chǎn)業(yè)本身,應(yīng)同時考慮對電器、機械和器材部門,通用設(shè)備、金屬制品等部門的帶動作用,對信息傳輸部門等部門的替代作用,提前對相關(guān)部門進行政策支持。
[Abstract]:In the economic system, sectors are always closely linked by input-output relations. The development of industries does not directly affect the development of the economy, but first acts on one or more closely related industries. Then through these industrial linkage to other related sectors, and then further impact on the economic system. Yunnan is rich in nonferrous metal resources. Therefore, under the background of "new normal", the paper studies the related industries of Yunnan nonferrous metal industry through input-output relationship, and analyzes the present production efficiency of Yunnan nonferrous metal industry. Further analysis of the static and dynamic linkage effect of Yunnan nonferrous metal industry to other industries is of great practical significance in accurately predicting economic development, providing the basis for policy suggestions, and achieving a more stable and healthy development of the whole Yunnan economy. On the basis of the input-output relationship of various departments in Yunnan Province, this paper, by calculating and analyzing the forward and backward correlation coefficients of 43 departments from 2002 to 2012, analyzes the forward direction of the non-ferrous metal industry in the whole economic system of Yunnan Province. There are 23 backward-related industrial departments. In order to further analyze the present situation of nonferrous metal industry in Yunnan, the production efficiency of nonferrous metal industry in 31 provinces and cities in China was analyzed by three-stage DEA. Taking Yunnan nonferrous metal industry as the main body, 26 departments can calculate the general equilibrium CGE model is further introduced to analyze the static linkage effect of Yunnan nonferrous metal industry after a certain impact on the whole economic sector. Then the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of 26 departments is introduced to analyze the dynamic linkage effect of 26 departments in the next 60 periods under the impact of unit 1. When the non-ferrous metal industry is impacted by the outside world, the linkage of other related departments is well simulated. The policy recommendations obtained in this paper are as follows: first, in space, when the price of the non-ferrous metal industry falls by more than 40 percent, in addition to considering the impact on the non-ferrous metal industry itself, it is also necessary to consider the power that is closely related to the non-ferrous metal industry. Sectors such as thermal production and supply; when prices for non-ferrous metals in Yunnan rise, production costs will rise in most downstream sectors, and these sectors should be encouraged to reduce costs from other perspectives. And when the price increases, the benefits of non-ferrous metal industry are mainly transferred from enterprises, residents to the government benefit distribution, we can consider the corresponding subsidies to enterprises and residents. Second, when the policy impacts the nonferrous metal industry, in addition to considering the industry itself, it should also consider the leading role of the electrical, mechanical and equipment sectors, general equipment, metal products, and so on. To the information transmission department and so on the substitution function, carries on the policy support to the related department in advance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.32

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