本文選題：碳減排　切入點：碳配額分配　出處：《中國礦業(yè)大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：哥本哈根氣候會議上,中國提出了2020年單位GDP碳排放量下降40%-45%的減排目標,為確保2020年中國碳排放目標的實現(xiàn),2017年1月5日,國家能源局發(fā)布《能源發(fā)展“十三五”規(guī)劃》提出,清潔能源將是“十三五”能源供應(yīng)增量的主體,“十三五”期間,非化石能源消費比重將提高到15%以上,天然氣消費比重力爭達10%,煤炭消費比重降到58%以下,2020年把能源消費總量控制在50億噸標準煤以內(nèi)。碳減排的實施勢必要先進行碳配額的分配,而當前關(guān)于碳配額分配的影響研究主要集中在分配的原則、方法、影響因素、對碳市場交易的影響等方面,而關(guān)于碳配額分配后對中國煤炭空間輸送格局的影響研究尚屬空白。本文結(jié)合碳減排通過碳配額分配影響區(qū)域煤炭需求這一路徑,參考國際碳配額分配的歷史分配法理論,構(gòu)建包含歷史累積排放量、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)強度和技術(shù)進步水平三個指標的碳配額分配模型,在2020年煤炭消費總量一定的基礎(chǔ)上,通過指標權(quán)重系數(shù)的不同設(shè)置不同的情境,基于保障和激勵原則進行情境對比,最終確定各地區(qū)的碳配額分配方案。并在此基礎(chǔ)上,以動力煤為例,使用IPCC清單法核算出在碳配額情境下各地區(qū)的動力煤需求量,同時構(gòu)建回歸模型預(yù)測2020年中國的煤炭供給總量和無碳排放情境下需求總量。進而利用空間均衡模型理論構(gòu)建中國煤炭市場空間輸送格局模型,通過無碳減排情境和碳減排情境下的對比,進行中國煤炭輸送格局的影響研究。本文在碳配額分配及兩種情境下煤炭市場空間格局的對比結(jié)果表明:(1)北京、天津、上海、海南、甘肅以及寧夏等地區(qū)在基于歷史分配法的條件下,在動力煤消費的碳配額分配競爭中占有優(yōu)勢,河北、內(nèi)蒙古、遼寧、山東和河南等地處于劣勢;(2)從供給端來看,遼吉3、遼吉4等地區(qū)的動力煤在市場競爭中處于劣勢,而山西7、山西9等地區(qū)在市場競爭中占有優(yōu)勢。從需求端來看,動力煤的輸送主要指向江蘇、浙江、廣東、福建等東部和南部地區(qū),表明這些地區(qū)的煤炭需求較為強烈,動力煤需求價格較高;(3)通過不同情境的對比,煤炭區(qū)際間的調(diào)入調(diào)出存在空間套利的可能,不同供給地區(qū)的動力煤輸送到不同需求地區(qū)的競爭優(yōu)勢是有差異的。本文認為,在碳排放情境下,中國對碳配額的分配需兼顧公平和效率原則,鼓勵企業(yè)進行產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級和技術(shù)進步,地方政府應(yīng)取消對地方煤炭企業(yè)的保護,完善煤炭市場交易機制,建設(shè)煤炭市場交易平臺,提高煤炭市場信息的透明度,煤炭企業(yè)按照市場規(guī)則進行交易,使社會收益最大化。
[Abstract]:At the Copenhagen climate conference, China set a goal of reducing carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 40 to 45 percent by 2020. In order to ensure that China's carbon emissions target for 2020 is met, on January 5, 2017,The State Energy Administration issued the 13th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development, proposing that clean energy will be the main body of the energy supply increment in the 13th Five-Year Plan. During the 13th Five-Year Plan, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will increase to more than 15 percent.The proportion of natural gas consumption will reach 10 percent, the proportion of coal consumption will fall below 58 percent, and the total energy consumption will be controlled within 5 billion tons of standard coal by 2020.The implementation of carbon emission reduction is bound to start with the allocation of carbon quotas, and the current research on the impact of carbon quota allocation is mainly focused on the principles, methods, influencing factors, the impact on the carbon market trading, and so on.However, the study on the effect of carbon quota allocation on the spatial transport pattern of coal in China is still blank.Based on the path that carbon emission reduction affects regional coal demand through carbon quota allocation, this paper constructs a method including historical cumulative emissions by referring to the historical allocation theory of international carbon quota allocation.The carbon quota allocation model of the three indicators of industrial structure intensity and technological progress level, on the basis of the fixed total coal consumption in 2020, through the different setting of different situation of index weight coefficient, based on the guarantee and incentive principle to carry on the situation contrast.Finally, the carbon quota allocation scheme for each region is determined.On this basis, taking thermal coal as an example, the IPCC inventory method is used to calculate the coal demand in various regions under the situation of carbon quota, and a regression model is constructed to predict the total coal supply and the total demand under the non-carbon emission situation in 2020 in China.Then the spatial transport pattern model of China's coal market is constructed by using the spatial equilibrium model theory, and the influence of coal transport pattern in China is studied by comparing the carbon-free and carbon-reduction scenarios.In this paper, the results of carbon quota allocation and the comparison of spatial patterns of coal market in two situations show that: 1) Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Hainan, Gansu and Ningxia are based on the historical allocation method.In the competition of carbon quota allocation for thermal coal consumption, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Shandong and Henan are at a disadvantage.) from the supply side, the thermal coal of Liaoji 3, Liaoji 4 and other regions are at a disadvantage in the market competition.And Shanxi 7, Shanxi 9 and other regions in the market competition has an advantage.From the point of view of the demand side, the transportation of thermal coal mainly points to the eastern and southern areas of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian, indicating that the demand for coal in these areas is relatively strong, and the price of thermal coal is relatively high.There is a possibility of arbitrage between different coal regions, and the competitive advantages of thermal coal transportation to different demand areas are different in different supply areas.This paper holds that in the context of carbon emissions, China's allocation of carbon quotas should take into account the principles of fairness and efficiency, encourage enterprises to upgrade their industrial structure and improve technology, and local governments should abolish the protection of local coal enterprises.Improve the coal market trading mechanism, build the coal market trading platform, improve the transparency of the coal market information, coal enterprises in accordance with the rules of the market transactions, so as to maximize social income.
【學位授予單位】：中國礦業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X24;F426.21

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 馬海良;張紅艷;吳鳳平;;基于情景分析法的中國碳排放分配預(yù)測研究[J];軟科學;2016年10期

2 劉勇;;政府免費分配碳排放配額的法律性質(zhì)與中國對策——基于《補貼與反補貼措施協(xié)定》補貼構(gòu)成要件的分析[J];法商研究;2016年02期

3 龍濤;于汶加;代濤;李穎;邢佳韻;;中國在吉爾吉斯斯坦區(qū)域資源產(chǎn)業(yè)開發(fā)布局分析[J];資源科學;2015年05期

4 陳建;;我國碳排放配額初始分配方式的法學探究——以行政法律關(guān)系為視角[J];西南石油大學學報(社會科學版);2015年02期

5 車亮亮;韓雪;武春友;;中國煤炭流動格局與利用效率的空間關(guān)聯(lián)分析[J];經(jīng)濟地理;2015年02期

6 王偉;王成金;;環(huán)渤海地區(qū)港口煤炭運輸格局演變和動力機制[J];自然資源學報;2014年11期

7 車亮亮;韓雪;秦曉楠;武春友;;基于生態(tài)位理論的中國煤炭區(qū)域流動與競爭[J];資源科學;2014年10期

8 王宜強;趙媛;;中國煤炭資源流源、匯地空間格局演變與內(nèi)部空間差異研究[J];地理科學;2014年10期

9 段茂盛;龐韜;;全國統(tǒng)一碳排放權(quán)交易體系中的配額分配方式研究[J];武漢大學學報(哲學社會科學版);2014年05期

10 嵇昊威;趙媛;;長三角高速鐵路網(wǎng)建設(shè)對江蘇省煤炭鐵路運輸能力的影響[J];自然資源學報;2014年02期

相關(guān)博士學位論文 前3條

1 叢威;我國煤炭產(chǎn)能調(diào)控動力機制及模式研究[D];中國礦業(yè)大學（北京）;2013年

2 陳紅霞;基于空間均衡的新城發(fā)展機理研究[D];哈爾濱工業(yè)大學;2008年

3 劉鴻雁;貿(mào)易自由化進程中的中國奶制品貿(mào)易研究[D];中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學院;2007年

相關(guān)碩士學位論文 前7條

1 陳宇光;我國區(qū)域碳排放市場總量控制與配額分配研究[D];中共浙江省委黨校;2014年

2 劉延靜;我國煤炭行業(yè)供求狀況與發(fā)展趨勢研究[D];哈爾濱工程大學;2010年

3 秦軍;煤炭市場及其穩(wěn)定供給的策略研究[D];浙江大學;2009年

4 張玉梅;天然橡膠市場空間均衡模型研究[D];華南熱帶農(nóng)業(yè)大學;2006年

5 田書晶;我國煤炭市場供求分析及其價格研究[D];對外經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學;2006年

6 林晗;煤炭市場供需平衡分析及對策研究[D];大連海事大學;2006年

7 尹堅;中國肉產(chǎn)品市場空間均衡研究[D];中國農(nóng)業(yè)大學;2003年

，

本文編號：1711633