本文選題：經濟新常態(tài)　切入點：電力需求　出處：《內蒙古大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：電力工業(yè)是國民經濟的基礎產業(yè)和先行產業(yè),并支撐著其他產業(yè)的持續(xù)發(fā)展。近年來,內蒙古電力工業(yè)積極落實國家能源戰(zhàn)略,加快調整優(yōu)化能源結構,實現了電力工業(yè)持續(xù)快速發(fā)展,不僅對地區(qū)煤炭資源的就地轉化增值、支撐內蒙古冶金、化工等優(yōu)勢特色產業(yè)發(fā)展,以及內蒙古經濟社會的持續(xù)發(fā)展發(fā)揮了重大作用,同時在支持國家經濟社會發(fā)展上也發(fā)揮了重要作用;隨著我國進入經濟新常態(tài)時期,內蒙古電力工業(yè)發(fā)展也面臨著新的挑戰(zhàn)。本文首先對國內外關于電力工業(yè)問題的研究從電力工業(yè)發(fā)展、電力與經濟增長關系、電力需求預測、電力體制改革和內蒙古電力工業(yè)發(fā)展研究進行文獻綜述;并對規(guī)制與競爭理論和沉沒成本等相關理論進行了梳理。其次在提出電力工業(yè)相關概念及界定的基礎上,從電力裝機、發(fā)電量、外送電量、電網建設和電力需求等方面對內蒙古電力工業(yè)發(fā)展現狀進行分析,認為內蒙古電力工業(yè)發(fā)展面臨著"窩電"現象日益嚴重、棄風棄光問題嚴峻、市場需求減少、產能過剩凸顯、自備電廠與公用電廠矛盾加大和電力基礎設施不完善等問題;并通過分析經濟新常態(tài)下中國電力市場供給側和需求側面臨的形勢和內蒙古電力供需狀況,運用回歸分析預測法和灰色模型預測法對內蒙古未來五年電力供給和需求進行了預測。最后結合內蒙古經濟社會發(fā)展實際,分析制約內蒙古電力工業(yè)發(fā)展的因素,提出積極實施重大電源點建設項目、擴大需求促進電力工業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展、加快完善電力基礎設施、大力推進電力科技創(chuàng)新和加強協(xié)調配合嚴格電力監(jiān)管等促進內蒙古電力工業(yè)發(fā)展的對策建議。
[Abstract]:The electric power industry is the basic and leading industry of the national economy and supports the sustainable development of other industries. In recent years, Inner Mongolia Electric Power Industry has actively implemented the national energy strategy and accelerated the adjustment and optimization of the energy structure. The sustained and rapid development of the electric power industry has not only played an important role in the local transformation and appreciation of the regional coal resources, in supporting the development of the advantages and characteristics of metallurgy and chemical industry in Inner Mongolia, but also in the sustained economic and social development of Inner Mongolia. At the same time, it has also played an important role in supporting the country's economic and social development. The development of power industry in Inner Mongolia is also facing new challenges. Firstly, this paper studies the problems of power industry at home and abroad, including the development of power industry, the relationship between electricity and economic growth, and the forecast of power demand. The reform of power system and the development of power industry in Inner Mongolia are reviewed, and the theories of regulation and competition, sunk cost and other related theories are summarized. Secondly, based on the concept and definition of electric power industry, the paper puts forward the theory of electric power installation. This paper analyzes the current situation of the development of Inner Mongolia electric power industry from the aspects of power generation, outgoing power supply, power grid construction and power demand, and considers that the development of Inner Mongolia electric power industry is facing the increasingly serious phenomenon of "power generation", and the problem of abandoning wind and abandoning light is serious. The market demand is reduced, the overcapacity is prominent, the contradiction between the self-provided power plant and the utility power plant is increased, and the power infrastructure is not perfect. And through the analysis of the situation facing the supply and demand side of China's electricity market under the new normal state of economy and the supply and demand situation of power supply and demand in Inner Mongolia, The forecast method of regression analysis and grey model is used to forecast the power supply and demand in Inner Mongolia in the next five years. Finally, the factors restricting the development of power industry in Inner Mongolia are analyzed in light of the actual economic and social development of Inner Mongolia. It is proposed to actively implement major power point construction projects, expand demand and promote the sustainable development of the power industry, speed up the improvement of power infrastructure, The countermeasures and suggestions to promote the development of power industry in Inner Mongolia are put forward, such as promoting innovation of electric power science and technology and strengthening coordination, coordination and strict supervision of electric power.
【學位授予單位】：內蒙古大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.61

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