本文關鍵詞：基于熵權法與模糊風險評價的EPC項目投標決策研究　出處：《西安科技大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： EPC項目 投標決策 風險評價 模糊層次分析法 熵權法

【摘要】：EPC總承包模式以高速度、低成本地建造大型工業(yè)項目和高層建筑而在國際建設工程領域備受青睞。由于通常采用總價合同方式,EPC承包商承擔著項目建設的大多數風險,從而使項目的投標決策顯得尤為重要。本文從選取最符合企業(yè)發(fā)展的EPC項目進行投標的角度出發(fā),將投標決策劃分為兩個階段,第一階段為初步投標決策,主要任務是從招投標市場篩選出符合企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略目標的EPC項目進行投標跟蹤,即項目篩選階段;第二階段是最終投標決策,即通過投標風險分析確定是否投標,并給出投標建議以及投標風險管理策略。在項目篩選階段,結合企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略目標,運用熵權理論建立了初步投標決策模型;而在最終投標決策階段,運用模糊風險評價法考慮項目層面的風險等級大小,建立基于項目風險管理的最終投標決策模型。具體地,采用定性和定量相結合的方式,結合德爾菲法與模糊層次分析法確定風險指標體系的權重,并結合專家調查法與風險矩陣判定各底層風險指標等級,利用模糊綜合評價法將權重與底層風險指標等級綜合,計算出所有層級風險指標等級的值,之后,根據企業(yè)可接受風險水平和風險管控范圍,解決是否投標的問題。此外,文中還構建出EPC項目投標風險決策的流程圖,以利于企業(yè)投標決策的實施。將熵權法與模糊風險評價有機結合起來進行投標決策,揚長避短、優(yōu)勢互補,可以克服僅采用熵權理論進行投標決策信息不完整性戰(zhàn)略投標決策的深度不足的問題,同時也有效地改善了僅采用模糊風險評價進行投標決策時受決策者專業(yè)知識的限制及其主觀偏好等因素的影響。采用兩階段投標決策使決策更為科學合理,同時也能提高決策的效率,具有很好的實用價值。
[Abstract]:The EPC general contracting mode is popular in the international construction engineering field because of its high speed and low cost in the construction of large industrial projects and high-rise buildings. The EPC contractor bears most of the risks of the project construction, which makes the bidding decision of the project seem particularly important. This paper starts from the point of view of selecting the EPC project which is the most suitable for the development of the enterprise. The bidding decision is divided into two stages. The first stage is the initial bidding decision. The main task is to screen out the EPC projects which accord with the strategic objectives of the enterprise from the bidding market, that is, the project screening stage; The second stage is the final bidding decision, that is, through the bidding risk analysis to determine whether to bid, and give the bidding proposal and bidding risk management strategy. In the project screening stage, combined with the strategic objectives of the enterprise. A preliminary bidding decision model is established by using entropy weight theory. In the final bidding decision-making stage, the fuzzy risk evaluation method is used to consider the risk level of the project level, and the final bidding decision model based on project risk management is established. Using the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods combined with Delphi method and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of the risk index system and combined with the expert survey method and risk matrix to determine the bottom level of risk indicators. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to synthesize the weight with the bottom risk index grade, and then calculate the value of all levels of risk index grade, and then, according to the acceptable risk level and risk control range of the enterprise. In addition, the flow chart of EPC project bidding risk decision is constructed. In order to facilitate the implementation of enterprise bidding decision, the entropy weight method and fuzzy risk evaluation are organically combined to make bidding decision, which takes advantage of advantages and avoids weaknesses. It is possible to overcome the problem of insufficient depth of bidding decision-making based on entropy weight theory. At the same time, it also effectively improves the decision making with fuzzy risk evaluation, which is influenced by the decision makers' professional knowledge and subjective preferences. The two-stage bidding decision makes the decision more scientific and reasonable. At the same time, it can improve the efficiency of decision-making and has good practical value.
【學位授予單位】：西安科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.92

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